GBDC trades 16.5% below Wall Street's consensus target of $14.50.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes GBDC achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 9.0x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 12 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of September 24, 2026, Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (GBDC) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $14.50, based on estimates from 12 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $12.45, this represents a potential upside of +16.5%. The company has a market capitalization of $3.24B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $14.00 to a high of $15.00, representing a 7% spread in expectations. The median target of $14.50 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 7 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,5 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The positive sentiment balance indicates moderate optimism about the stock prospects.
From a valuation perspective, GBDC trades at a trailing P/E of 8.8x and forward P/E of 9.0x. The forward PEG ratio of 0.29 suggests the stock may be undervalued relative to its growth. Analysts expect EPS to grow +144.3% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $10.25, with bear and bull scenarios of $6.46 and $13.50 respectively. Model confidence stands at 43/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ARCCAres Capital Corporation | $13.8B | $19.15 | $19.00 | -0.8% | Buy | 10.0x | 32 |
 FSCOFS Credit Opportunities Corp. | $1.1B | $5.27 | — | — | — | — | — |
 TPVGTriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. | $200M | $4.92 | $5.00 | +1.6% | Hold | 5.5x | 12 |
 CGBDCarlyle Secured Lending, Inc. | $780M | $11.22 | $12.00 | +7.0% | Hold | 8.0x | 7 |
 OCSLOaktree Specialty Lending Corporation | $1.1B | $12.16 | $13.00 | +6.9% | Hold | 8.1x | 12 |
 BBDCBarings BDC, Inc. | $907M | $8.66 | $10.00 | +15.5% | Buy | 8.3x | 19 |
 FSKFS KKR Capital Corp. | $3.1B | $11.17 | $12.33 | +10.4% | Hold | 6.9x | 13 |
 MAINMain Street Capital Corporation | $5.1B | $55.08 | $56.67 | +2.9% | Hold | 14.4x | 15 |
 HTGCHercules Capital, Inc. | $3.2B | $16.97 | $15.50 | -8.7% | Buy | 8.8x | 31 |
 SLRCSLR Investment Corp. | $642M | $11.77 | $12.50 | +6.2% | Buy | 9.0x | 15 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying GBDC stock.
Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (GBDC) has a consensus 12-month price target of $14.5, implying 16.5% upside from $12.45. The 12 analysts covering GBDC see moderate appreciation potential.
GBDC has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 12 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is predominantly bullish, with 7 Buy/Strong Buy ratings. The consensus 12-month price target of $14.5 implies 16.5% upside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 9.0453x, GBDC trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $14.5 implies 16.5% appreciation, suggesting meaningful undervaluation.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $15 for GBDC, while the most conservative target is $14. The consensus of $14.5 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $14 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
GBDC is moderately covered, with 12 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 7 have Buy ratings, 5 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month GBDC stock forecast based on 12 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $14.5, with estimates ranging from $14 (bear case) to $15 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $10, with bear/bull scenarios of $6/$14.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates GBDC's fair value at $10 (base case), with a bear case of $6 and bull case of $14. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 43/100.
GBDC trades at a forward P/E ratio of 9.0x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 8.8x. The higher forward P/E suggests near-term earnings pressure. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Wall Street analysts are optimistic on GBDC, with a "Buy" consensus rating and $14.5 price target (16.5% upside). 7 of 12 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
GBDC analyst price targets range from $14 to $15, a 7% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $14.5 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $6-$14 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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