Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) Price Target Analysis
Wall Street analyst price targets, ratings consensus & upside potential · Updated May 1, 2026
Current Price
$19.35
Price Target
$21.88
Target Range
$20.00 — $24.00
Analyst Rating
Buy
Forward P/E10.1x
Trailing P/E10.4x
Forward PEG0.98
Implied Growth+19.4%
Median Target$21.50
Analyst Spread18.3%
Price Forecast (1 Year)
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
Bear Case
$20
+3.4%
Consensus
$22
+13.1%
Bull Case
$24
+24.0%
Valuation Model TargetsConfidence: 42/100
Bear$16
Base$30
Bull$50
ARCC Price Target Analysis
Updated May 6, 2026As of May 6, 2026, Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $21.88, based on estimates from 32 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $19.35, this represents a potential upside of +13.1%. The company has a market capitalization of $13.89B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $20.00 to a high of $24.00, representing a 18% spread in expectations. The median target of $21.50 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 25 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,7 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. This overwhelmingly bullish sentiment suggests analysts see significant catalysts for upside ahead.
From a valuation perspective, ARCC trades at a trailing P/E of 10.4x and forward P/E of 10.1x. The forward PEG ratio of 0.98 suggests the stock may be undervalued relative to its growth. Analysts expect EPS to grow +19.4% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $29.72, with bear and bull scenarios of $15.81 and $50.16 respectively. Model confidence stands at 42/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
Investment Context: Price targets represent analyst expectations for the next 12 months and should be considered alongside your own research. Targets are based on analysts' assumptions about earnings growth, margins, and market conditions which may change. For sector-specific context, view other Financial Services stocks.
Analyst Sentiment Comparison
Industry Peer AnalysisAvg Peer Upside+17.9%
Avg Forward P/E8.6x
Peers with Coverage10 / 10
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 GBDCGolub Capital BDC, Inc. | $3.5B | $13.40 | $14.33 | +6.9% | Buy | 9.3x | 11 |
 OBDCBlue Owl Capital Corporation | $6.1B | $11.91 | $14.50 | +21.7% | Buy | 8.7x | 13 |
 TPVGTriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. | $222M | $5.48 | $8.95 | +63.3% | Hold | 5.9x | 12 |
 HTGCHercules Capital, Inc. | $3.0B | $16.57 | $18.92 | +14.2% | Buy | 8.5x | 31 |
 PSECProspect Capital Corporation | $1.3B | $2.75 | $2.50 | -9.1% | Hold | 5.9x | 20 |
 MAINMain Street Capital Corporation | $5.1B | $57.36 | $67.00 | +16.8% | Hold | 14.2x | 14 |
 SLRCSLR Investment Corp. | $871M | $15.97 | $16.25 | +1.8% | Buy | 9.9x | 15 |
 CGBDCarlyle Secured Lending, Inc. | $881M | $12.09 | $15.00 | +24.1% | Hold | 8.3x | 7 |
 NMFCNew Mountain Finance Corporation | $828M | $8.41 | $10.50 | +24.9% | Hold | 7.6x | 12 |
 PFLTPennantPark Floating Rate Capital Ltd. | $908M | $9.15 | $10.50 | +14.8% | Buy | 8.1x | 11 |
Upside Potential Comparison
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Start ComparisonARCC — Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying ARCC stock.
What is the ARCC stock price target for 2026?
Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) has a consensus 12-month price target of $21.88, implying 13.1% upside from $19.35. The 32 analysts covering ARCC see moderate appreciation potential.
Is ARCC a buy, sell, or hold?
ARCC has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 32 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is predominantly bullish, with 25 Buy/Strong Buy ratings. The consensus 12-month price target of $21.88 implies 13.1% upside from current levels.
Is ARCC stock overvalued or undervalued?
With a forward P/E of 10.1219x, ARCC trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $21.88 implies 13.1% appreciation, suggesting meaningful undervaluation.
How high can ARCC stock go?
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $24 for ARCC, while the most conservative target is $20. The consensus of $21.88 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $50 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
How many analysts cover ARCC stock?
ARCC is heavily covered by Wall Street, with 32 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 25 have Buy ratings, 7 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
What is the ARCC stock forecast?
The 12-month ARCC stock forecast based on 32 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $21.88, with estimates ranging from $20 (bear case) to $24 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $30, with bear/bull scenarios of $16/$50.
What is ARCC's fair value based on fundamentals?
Our quantitative valuation model calculates ARCC's fair value at $30 (base case), with a bear case of $16 and bull case of $50. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 42/100.
What is ARCC's forward P/E ratio?
ARCC trades at a forward P/E ratio of 10.1x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 10.4x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Should I buy ARCC stock?
Wall Street analysts are optimistic on ARCC, with a "Buy" consensus rating and $21.88 price target (13.1% upside). 25 of 32 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Why do ARCC price targets vary so much?
ARCC analyst price targets range from $20 to $24, a 18% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $21.88 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $16-$50 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.