HTGC trades 10.0% above Wall Street's consensus target of $15.50.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes HTGC achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 8.9x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 31 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of September 23, 2026, Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $15.50, based on estimates from 31 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $17.22, this represents a potential downside of -10.0%. The company has a market capitalization of $3.22B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $15.50 to a high of $15.50, representing a 0% spread in expectations. The median target of $15.50 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 19 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,11 rating it Hold, and 1 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The positive sentiment balance indicates moderate optimism about the stock prospects.
From a valuation perspective, HTGC trades at a trailing P/E of 9.3x and forward P/E of 8.9x. Analysts expect EPS to grow +0.6% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $16.24, with bear and bull scenarios of $10.23 and $21.39 respectively. Model confidence stands at 45/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ARCCAres Capital Corporation | $13.9B | $19.36 | $19.00 | -1.9% | Buy | 10.2x | 32 |
 GBDCGolub Capital BDC, Inc. | $3.3B | $12.53 | $14.50 | +15.7% | Buy | 9.1x | 12 |
 OBDCBlue Owl Capital Corporation | $5.5B | $11.14 | $13.00 | +16.7% | Buy | 8.6x | 13 |
 TPVGTriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. | $199M | $4.91 | $5.00 | +1.8% | Hold | 5.5x | 12 |
 GSBDGoldman Sachs BDC, Inc. | $1.1B | $9.73 | $9.25 | -4.9% | Hold | 7.6x | 9 |
 SLRCSLR Investment Corp. | $652M | $11.95 | $12.50 | +4.6% | Buy | 9.1x | 15 |
 CGBDCarlyle Secured Lending, Inc. | $797M | $11.47 | $12.00 | +4.6% | Hold | 8.1x | 7 |
 FDUSFidus Investment Corporation | $733M | $19.30 | — | — | Hold | 9.1x | 12 |
 GAINGladstone Investment Corp. | $629M | $15.80 | $17.00 | +7.6% | Hold | 38.9x | 7 |
 PFLTPennantPark Floating Rate Capital Ltd. | $705M | $7.11 | $9.00 | +26.6% | Buy | 6.7x | 11 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying HTGC stock.
Wall Street's consensus price target for HTGC is $15.5, -10.0% from its current price of $17.22. The below-market target from 31 analysts suggests limited near-term appreciation.
HTGC has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 31 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is predominantly bullish, with 19 Buy/Strong Buy ratings. The consensus 12-month price target of $15.5 implies -10.0% downside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 8.9117x, HTGC trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $15.5 implies -10.0% move, suggesting the market may be pricing in risks.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $15.5 for HTGC, while the most conservative target is $15.5. The consensus of $15.5 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $21 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
HTGC is heavily covered by Wall Street, with 31 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 19 have Buy ratings, 11 recommend Hold, and 1 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month HTGC stock forecast based on 31 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $15.5, with estimates ranging from $15.5 (bear case) to $15.5 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $16, with bear/bull scenarios of $10/$21.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates HTGC's fair value at $16 (base case), with a bear case of $10 and bull case of $21. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 45/100.
HTGC trades at a forward P/E ratio of 8.9x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 9.3x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Analysts are cautious on HTGC, with 1 Sell ratings and a price target of $15.5 (-10.0% from current price). The "Buy" consensus suggests careful evaluation before buying. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HTGC analyst price targets range from $15.5 to $15.5, a 0% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $15.5 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $10-$21 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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