Upside case
Bull case
$96+67.4%
TS would need investors to value it at roughly 25x earnings — about 10x more generous than today's 15x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Tenaris S.A. (TS) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
26
analysts
15 bullish · 2 bearish · 26 covering TS
Strong Buy
0
Buy
15
Hold
9
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$60
+5.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$46 – $96
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
26
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
15.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $30.7B
TS price targets
Three scenarios for where TS stock could go
Current
~$57
Confidence
52 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $57
Bear
$46
Base
$73
Bull
$96
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$73+27.1%
At 19x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$46-19.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push TS down roughly 20% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Tenaris S.A.
TS · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesDecember year-end
Tenaris is a global manufacturer of steel pipes and tubular products primarily for the oil and gas industry. It generates revenue from selling seamless and welded steel pipes — including casings, tubing, and mechanical pipes — which account for the vast majority of its sales, with additional income from related services and tubular accessories. The company's competitive advantage lies in its integrated manufacturing capabilities, global distribution network, and technological expertise in premium connections used in complex drilling operations.
Market Cap
$30.7B
Revenue TTM
$12.2B
Net Income TTM
$2.0B
Net Margin
16.2%
TS Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+15.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.99/$0.88
Revenue
$3.1B/$2.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.85/$0.75
Revenue
$3.0B/$3.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.87/$0.76
Revenue
$3.0B/$3.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.07/$0.87
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.99/$0.88 | +12.5% | $3.1B/$2.9B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.85/$0.75 | +13.3% | $3.0B/$3.0B | +0.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.87/$0.76 | +14.5% | $3.0B/$3.0B | +1.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.07/$0.87 | +23.0% | $3.1B/$3.0B | +2.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$12.5B
+2.6% YoY
FY2
$12.8B
+2.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.95
-49.7% YoY
FY2
$4.30
+8.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.9B
FCF Margin: 15.4%
Next Earnings
August 5, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.81
Expected Revenue
$2.9B
TS beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
TS Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $153 — implies +167.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
167.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TS
15.4x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
37% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
TS
15.4x
vs
Energy
15.5x
In line with benchmark
vs TS 5Y Avg P/E
Today
15.4x
vs
5Y Average
8.0x
+92% premium
Forward PE
15.1x
S&P 500
18.8x
-20%
Energy
12.5x
+21%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
15.4x
S&P 500
24.4x
-37%
Energy
15.5x
-0%
5Y Avg
8.0x
+92%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
-31%
Energy
7.8x
+35%
5Y Avg
6.6x
+60%
Price/FCF
15.5x
S&P 500
20.7x
-25%
Energy
13.8x
+12%
5Y Avg
13.1x
+18%
Price/Sales
2.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-17%
Energy
1.4x
+81%
5Y Avg
1.7x
+53%
Dividend Yield
3.03%
S&P 500
1.91%
+58%
Energy
3.47%
-13%
5Y Avg
3.27%
-7%
| Metric | TS | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg TS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 15.1x | 18.8x-20% | 12.5x+21% | — |
| Trailing PE | 15.4x | 24.4x-37% | 15.5x | 8.0x+92% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.5x | 15.2x-31% | 7.8x+35% | 6.6x+60% |
| Price/FCF | 15.5x | 20.7x-25% | 13.8x+12% | 13.1x+18% |
| Price/Sales | 2.6x | 3.1x-17% | 1.4x+81% | 1.7x+53% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.03% | 1.91% | 3.47% | 3.27% |
TS trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTS Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
TS generates $1.9B in free cash flow at a 15.4% margin — 10.2% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 7.5% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$12.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+1.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
32.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
19.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
16.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$7.86
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.9B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
15.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
10.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
9.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$573M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$124M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
11.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
7.5%
Dividend
3.0%
Buyback
4.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.4B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.73
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
46.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
537M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTS Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Energy industry dependence
Tenaris's heavy reliance on the energy industry makes it vulnerable to oil and gas market volatility and reduced drilling activity.
Medium
Commodity price sensitivity
Fluctuations in steel and raw material prices could impact margins and profitability.
High Risk
Bearish analyst outlook
Some analysts have a bearish outlook on Tenaris, with short-term and long-term price targets reflecting potential downside risks.
Medium
Geopolitical risks
As a global supplier, Tenaris faces risks from geopolitical tensions, trade restrictions, and regional instability affecting operations.
Lower
Competitive pressures
The company operates in a competitive market with potential pricing pressures from other steel pipe manufacturers.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TS Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Operational resilience and pricing power
Tenaris's ability to maintain steady volumes and cost discipline is expected to translate into improved pricing power and margin expansion by 2026.
Strong Q1 2026 earnings growth
Tenaris reported Q1 2026 sales of $3.1 billion, up 6% YoY, with net income of $564 million (+22% QoQ), showcasing robust financial performance.
Leading global manufacturer
Tenaris is the top supplier of steel pipes and related services for the energy industry, producing over 4 million tons annually with integrated steelmaking capabilities.
Commitment to industrial excellence
The company emphasizes determination, dedication, and focus on upholding high standards of safety, quality, and environmental protection.
Diverse industrial applications
Tenaris serves not only the energy sector but also other industrial applications, broadening its market reach and revenue streams.
Transparent financial reporting
Tenaris provides comprehensive SEC filings, including 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports, ensuring transparency for investors and analysts.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TS Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$57.22
52W Range Position
76%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$33.65
+70.0% from the low
52-Week High
$64.59
-11.4% from the high
1 Month
-7.83%
3 Month
+3.68%
YTD
+46.5%
1 Year
+56.9%
3Y CAGR
+27.4%
5Y CAGR
+21.6%
10Y CAGR
+7.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TS vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
15.1x
vs 16.0x median
-6% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.6%
vs +6.7% median
-62% below peer median
Net Margin
16.2%
vs 6.8% median
+137% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TS TS Tenaris S.A. | $30.7B | 15.1x | +2.6% | 16.2% | Buy | +5.5% |
VMC VMC Vulcan Materials Company | $39.3B | 32.8x | +3.7% | 13.9% | Buy | +6.5% |
NX NX Quanex Building Products Corporation | $781M | 10.3x | +8.2% | -13.9% | Hold | — |
STL STLD Steel Dynamics, Inc. | $36.2B | 15.4x | +11.5% | 7.2% | Buy | -5.9% |
NUE NUE Nucor Corporation | $55.5B | 16.0x | +6.7% | 6.8% | Buy | -1.7% |
RS RS Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. | $20.3B | 20.0x | +5.8% | 5.4% | Hold | -5.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TS Dividend and Capital Return
TS returns 7.5% annually — 3.03% through dividends and 4.4% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
7.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
4.4%
Dividend Yield
3.03%
Payout Ratio
46.6%
How TS Splits Its Return
Div 3.03%
Buyback 4.4%
Dividend 3.03%Buybacks 4.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.73
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
23.6%
5Y Div CAGR
19.4%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.4B
Estimated Shares Retired
24M
Approx. Share Reduction
4.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
537M
At 4.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.20 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.70 | +26.9% | 6.8% | 11.3% |
| 2024 | $1.34 | +24.1% | 6.8% | 10.3% |
| 2023 | $1.08 | +20.0% | 1.0% | 4.2% |
| 2022 | $0.90 | +66.7% | 0.0% | 2.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsTS Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Tenaris S.A. (TS) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Tenaris S.A. (TS) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 26 analysts covering the stock, 15 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 9 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $60, implying +5.5% from the current price of $57. The bear case scenario is $46 and the bull case is $96.
02What is the TS stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TS is $60 based on 26 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $82 (+43.3% from today), and the low-end target is $50 (-13.1%). The base case model target is $73.
03Is Tenaris S.A. (TS) stock overvalued in 2026?
TS trades at 15.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Tenaris S.A. (TS) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TS in 2026 are: (1) Energy industry dependence — Tenaris's heavy reliance on the energy industry makes it vulnerable to oil and gas market volatility and reduced drilling activity. (2) Bearish analyst outlook — Some analysts have a bearish outlook on Tenaris, with short-term and long-term price targets reflecting potential downside risks. (3) Commodity price sensitivity — Fluctuations in steel and raw material prices could impact margins and profitability. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Tenaris S.A.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TS will report consensus revenue of $12.5B (+2.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.95 (-49.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $12.8B in revenue.
06When does Tenaris S.A. (TS) report its next earnings?
Tenaris S.A. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-05. Consensus expects EPS of $0.81 and revenue of $2.9B. Over recent quarters, TS has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Tenaris S.A. generate?
Tenaris S.A. (TS) generated $1.9B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 15.4%. TS returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.0% yield) and share repurchases ($1.4B TTM).