Upside case
Bull case
$213+240.4%
TS would need investors to value it at roughly 59x earnings — about 42x more generous than today's 17x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Tenaris S.A. (TS) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
26
analysts
15 bullish · 2 bearish · 26 covering TS
Strong Buy
0
Buy
15
Hold
9
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$57
-8.8% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $213
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
26
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
17.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $33.5B
TS price targets
Three scenarios for where TS stock could go
Current
~$62
Confidence
51 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $62
Base
$73
Bull
$213
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$73+17.0%
At 20x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Tenaris S.A.
TS · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesDecember year-end
Tenaris is a global manufacturer of steel pipes and tubular products primarily for the oil and gas industry. It generates revenue from selling seamless and welded steel pipes — including casings, tubing, and mechanical pipes — which account for the vast majority of its sales, with additional income from related services and tubular accessories. The company's competitive advantage lies in its integrated manufacturing capabilities, global distribution network, and technological expertise in premium connections used in complex drilling operations.
Market Cap
$33.5B
Revenue TTM
$12.0B
Net Income TTM
$1.9B
Net Margin
16.1%
TS Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+15.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.94/$0.80
Revenue
$2.9B/$2.9B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.99/$0.88
Revenue
$3.1B/$2.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.85/$0.75
Revenue
$3.0B/$3.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.87/$0.76
Revenue
$3.0B/$3.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.94/$0.80 | +17.5% | $2.9B/$2.9B | +1.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.99/$0.88 | +12.5% | $3.1B/$2.9B | +6.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.85/$0.75 | +13.3% | $3.0B/$3.0B | +0.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.87/$0.76 | +14.5% | $3.0B/$3.0B | +1.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$12.1B
+1.4% YoY
FY2
$12.4B
+2.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.96
+6.7% YoY
FY2
$4.35
+9.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.0B
FCF Margin: 16.8%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.88
Expected Revenue
$3.0B
TS beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
TS Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $126 — implies +97.2% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
97.2%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TS
16.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
33% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
TS
16.8x
vs
Energy
16.9x
In line with benchmark
vs TS 5Y Avg P/E
Today
16.8x
vs
5Y Average
8.0x
+109% premium
Forward PE
17.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
-9%
Energy
13.2x
+32%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
16.8x
S&P 500
25.2x
-33%
Energy
16.9x
-1%
5Y Avg
8.0x
+109%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
11.5x
S&P 500
15.3x
-25%
Energy
8.1x
+41%
5Y Avg
6.6x
+74%
Price/FCF
16.9x
S&P 500
21.3x
-21%
Energy
14.1x
+20%
5Y Avg
13.1x
+29%
Price/Sales
2.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
-11%
Energy
1.6x
+79%
5Y Avg
1.7x
+67%
Dividend Yield
2.77%
S&P 500
1.88%
+48%
Energy
2.97%
-7%
5Y Avg
3.27%
-15%
| Metric | TS | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg TS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 17.4x | 19.1x | 13.2x+32% | — |
| Trailing PE | 16.8x | 25.2x-33% | 16.9x | 8.0x+109% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.5x | 15.3x-25% | 8.1x+41% | 6.6x+74% |
| Price/FCF | 16.9x | 21.3x-21% | 14.1x+20% | 13.1x+29% |
| Price/Sales | 2.8x | 3.1x-11% | 1.6x+79% | 1.7x+67% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.77% | 1.88% | 2.97% | 3.27% |
TS trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTS Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
TS generates $2.0B in free cash flow at a 16.8% margin — 10.2% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 6.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$12.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-4.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
32.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
19.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
16.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.71
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.0B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
16.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
10.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
9.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$573M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$124M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
11.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.8%
Dividend
2.8%
Buyback
4.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.4B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.73
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
46.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
537M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTS Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Oil & Gas Cycle Dependency
Tenaris’s core revenue is tightly linked to the oil and gas drilling cycle. A decline in crude oil prices can curb drilling plans, directly reducing demand for its oil country tubular goods (OCTG). This cyclical sensitivity can cause sharp revenue swings.
High Risk
Large Client Concentration
The company relies on a handful of major clients for a significant portion of its sales. If one of these clients slows or halts investment, Tenaris could see a substantial drop in revenue and EBITDA, amplifying earnings volatility.
Medium
Tariffs & Trade Policies
Higher tariffs in key markets such as the United States increase logistics and production costs. This can erode price competitiveness and squeeze margins, especially in a price‑sensitive industry.
Medium
Asian Competition
Asian manufacturers, particularly from China, can offer lower-priced OCTG, intensifying competitive pressure. This price competition threatens Tenaris’s market share and could force margin compression.
Medium
Pricing Outlook – Steel Input Costs
Flattening steel prices, a primary input for OCTG, signal a challenging pricing environment. With input costs stabilizing, Tenaris may struggle to maintain profit margins without passing costs to customers.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TS Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Tesla AI & Autonomous Driving Expansion
Tesla's AI chapter, featuring Full Self-Driving (FSD) and the Optimus robot, is projected to drive significant value. Analysts like Dan Ives predict the company's market capitalization could reach $2 trillion to $3 trillion by 2026, with these AI-driven products potentially accounting for a substantial portion of future value.
Tesla Services & Energy Segment Growth
Tesla's Services & Other revenue and Energy Generation & Storage segments have shown strong performance, providing recurring revenue streams that support overall profitability and contribute to a positive outlook.
Tenaris Technical Strength & Bull Flag Pattern
Technical analysis indicates a bull flag pattern, with the stock trading above key moving averages and outperforming the broader market, suggesting potential for a breakout and continued upside.
Tenaris Robust Financials & Cash Position
Tenaris reports strong earnings per share and quarterly revenue that exceed expectations, maintains high EBITDA margins above the sector average, generates positive free cash flow, and holds a solid net cash position, enabling shareholder returns and supporting valuation attractiveness.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TS Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$62.43
52W Range Position
94%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$32.00
+95.1% from the low
52-Week High
$64.33
-3.0% from the high
1 Month
+6.66%
3 Month
+33.08%
YTD
+59.8%
1 Year
+86.7%
3Y CAGR
+31.2%
5Y CAGR
+21.7%
10Y CAGR
+9.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TS vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
17.4x
vs 16.7x median
+4% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.4%
vs +5.0% median
-73% below peer median
Net Margin
16.1%
vs 6.8% median
+136% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TS TS Tenaris S.A. | $33.5B | 17.4x | +1.4% | 16.1% | Buy | -8.8% |
VMC VMC Vulcan Materials Company | $38.4B | 32.2x | +5.0% | 13.9% | Buy | +10.6% |
NX NX Quanex Building Products Corporation | $919M | 10.0x | +25.3% | -13.0% | Hold | — |
STL STLD Steel Dynamics, Inc. | $35.0B | 16.2x | +6.0% | 7.2% | Buy | -22.1% |
NUE NUE Nucor Corporation | $53.3B | 16.7x | +4.4% | 6.8% | Buy | -4.9% |
RS RS Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. | $19.2B | 19.3x | +3.0% | 5.4% | Hold | -3.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TS Dividend and Capital Return
TS returns 6.8% annually — 2.77% through dividends and 4.1% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
6.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
4.1%
Dividend Yield
2.77%
Payout Ratio
46.6%
How TS Splits Its Return
Div 2.77%
Buyback 4.1%
Dividend 2.77%Buybacks 4.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.73
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
5Y
3Y Div CAGR
23.6%
5Y Div CAGR
19.4%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
3 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.4B
Estimated Shares Retired
22M
Approx. Share Reduction
4.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
537M
At 4.1%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.20 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.70 | +26.9% | 6.8% | 11.3% |
| 2024 | $1.34 | +24.1% | 6.8% | 10.3% |
| 2023 | $1.08 | +20.0% | 1.0% | 4.2% |
| 2022 | $0.90 | +66.7% | 0.0% | 2.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsTS Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Tenaris S.A. (TS) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Tenaris S.A. (TS) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 26 analysts covering the stock, 15 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 9 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $57, implying -8.8% from the current price of $62.
02What is the TS stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TS is $57 based on 26 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $72 (+15.3% from today), and the low-end target is $50 (-20.4%). The base case model target is $73.
03Is Tenaris S.A. (TS) stock overvalued in 2026?
TS trades at 17.4x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Tenaris S.A. (TS) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TS in 2026 are: (1) Oil & Gas Cycle Dependency — Tenaris’s core revenue is tightly linked to the oil and gas drilling cycle. (2) Large Client Concentration — The company relies on a handful of major clients for a significant portion of its sales. (3) Tariffs & Trade Policies — Higher tariffs in key markets such as the United States increase logistics and production costs. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Tenaris S.A.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TS will report consensus revenue of $12.1B (+1.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.96 (+6.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $12.4B in revenue.
06When does Tenaris S.A. (TS) report its next earnings?
Tenaris S.A. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $0.88 and revenue of $3.0B. Over recent quarters, TS has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Tenaris S.A. generate?
Tenaris S.A. (TS) generated $2.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 16.8%. TS returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.8% yield) and share repurchases ($1.4B TTM).