Upside case
Bull case
$140+26.9%
TW would need investors to value it at roughly 35x earnings — about 7x more generous than today's 27x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
28
analysts
17 bullish · 0 bearish · 28 covering TW
Strong Buy
0
Buy
17
Hold
11
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$130
+18.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$45 – $140
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
28
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
27.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $23.5B
TW price targets
Three scenarios for where TW stock could go
Current
~$110
Confidence
70 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $110
Bear
$45
Base
$131
Bull
$140
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$131+18.9%
At 32x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$45-58.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 16x multiple contraction could push TW down roughly 59% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Tradeweb Markets Inc.
TW · NASDAQFinancial ServicesFinancial - Capital MarketsDecember year-end
Tradeweb operates electronic marketplaces for institutional fixed income and derivatives trading. It generates revenue primarily from transaction fees — roughly 80% of revenue — with the remainder from subscription and other fees for data and analytics services. The company's moat lies in its deep institutional network, regulatory compliance infrastructure, and the liquidity network effects that come from connecting over 2,500 clients across 45 markets.
Market Cap
$23.5B
Net Income TTM
$870M
TW Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+1.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.87/$0.86
Revenue
$513M/$514M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.87/$0.83
Revenue
$509M/$508M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.87/$0.85
Revenue
$521M/$517M
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.08/$1.06
Revenue
$618M/$617M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.87/$0.86 | +1.2% | $513M/$514M | -0.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.87/$0.83 | +4.9% | $509M/$508M | +0.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.87/$0.85 | +2.6% | $521M/$517M | +0.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.08/$1.06 | +1.9% | $618M/$617M | +0.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$2.4B
+17.5% YoY
FY2
$2.8B
+17.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.81
-6.6% YoY
FY2
$4.49
+18.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.1B
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
TW beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
TW Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Transaction Fee Revenue
82.8%
+19.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
58.2%
+12.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Transaction Fee Revenue is the largest disclosed segment at 82.8% of FY 2025 revenue, up 19.5% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 58.2%, up 12.6% YoY.
TW Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Undervalued
Fair value est. $118 — implies +5.3% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
5.3%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TW
29.2x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+16% premium
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
TW
29.2x
vs
Financial Services
13.3x
+119% premium
vs TW 5Y Avg P/E
Today
29.2x
vs
5Y Average
54.7x
47% discount
Forward PE
27.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
+43%
Financial Services
10.4x
+162%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
29.2x
S&P 500
25.1x
+16%
Financial Services
13.3x
+119%
5Y Avg
54.7x
-47%
PEG Ratio
0.86x
S&P 500
1.72x
-50%
Financial Services
1.01x
-15%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
19.8x
S&P 500
15.2x
+30%
Financial Services
11.4x
+73%
5Y Avg
26.6x
-26%
Price/FCF
20.8x
S&P 500
21.1x
-1%
Financial Services
10.6x
+97%
5Y Avg
28.9x
-28%
Price/Sales
11.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+266%
Financial Services
2.2x
+414%
5Y Avg
14.5x
-21%
Dividend Yield
0.43%
S&P 500
1.87%
-77%
Financial Services
2.70%
-84%
5Y Avg
0.39%
+12%
| Metric | TW | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg TW |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 27.3x | 19.1x+43% | 10.4x+162% | — |
| Trailing PE | 29.2x | 25.1x+16% | 13.3x+119% | 54.7x-47% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.86x | 1.72x-50% | 1.01x-15% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.8x | 15.2x+30% | 11.4x+73% | 26.6x-26% |
| Price/FCF | 20.8x | 21.1x | 10.6x+97% | 28.9x-28% |
| Price/Sales | 11.4x | 3.1x+266% | 2.2x+414% | 14.5x-21% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.43% | 1.87% | 2.70% | 0.39% |
TW trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTW Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
TW generates 12.4% ROE and 10.7% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.08
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
12.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
10.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.1B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$1.8B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
12.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.9%
Dividend
0.4%
Buyback
0.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$104M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.48
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
12.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
213M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageTW Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
China-Taiwan Relations
China’s stated goal of reunification, potentially including the use of force, poses a substantial threat to TSMC’s operations and global supply chains. Even a peaceful reunification could give Beijing significant influence over TSMC, jeopardizing its strategic autonomy.
High Risk
De-Globalization & Trade Restrictions
Rising national security concerns have led to export restrictions, tariffs, and protectionist policies that disrupt global supply chains and increase operating costs for TSMC. These measures threaten the company’s ability to source critical components and maintain its competitive edge.
Medium
Geopolitical Concentration
TSMC’s most advanced manufacturing facilities remain concentrated in Taiwan, making the company vulnerable to cross‑strait tensions and global power dynamics. Concentration limits geographic risk mitigation and could amplify operational disruptions.
Medium
Natural Disasters
Taiwan is prone to earthquakes, typhoons, floods, and volcanic eruptions that can damage sensitive wafer production lines. Such events can lead to significant financial losses and production downtime.
Medium
Cybersecurity Threats
Advancements in AI, quantum computing, and geopolitical tensions have amplified cybersecurity risks, potentially disrupting supply chains and operations. A successful cyberattack could compromise proprietary designs and manufacturing processes.
Medium
Resource Shortages
Taiwan faces potential shortages in critical resources like water and electricity, essential for semiconductor manufacturing. Insufficient supply of these resources could halt production and increase operational costs.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TW Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Dominant Electronic Trading Platform
Tradeweb has maintained 26 consecutive years of record annual revenues, underscoring its market leadership. In Q4 2025, total revenues reached $521 million, a 12% year‑over‑year increase, while January revenue grew 17% YoY and adjusted average daily revenues rose 26%.
AI‑Enabled Tools Drive Volume
The adoption of AiEX and Portfolio Trading tools is propelling electronic trading volumes. These platforms enhance execution efficiency and generate higher‑margin revenue streams for the firm.
International Expansion & Multi‑Asset Offerings
Tradeweb is expanding its footprint globally and adding multi‑asset capabilities. This strategy broadens its client base and opens new revenue channels across diverse markets.
Workflow Automation & Data Solutions
Workflow automation and data/post‑trade solutions are designed to deliver recurring, higher‑margin revenue. By streamlining processes, Tradeweb improves client retention and upsell opportunities.
Robust Revenue Growth Momentum
Tradeweb’s revenue growth remains strong, with a 17% YoY increase in January and a 12% rise in Q4 2025. The company’s consistent record of revenue growth positions it well for continued expansion.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TW Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$110.21
52W Range Position
25%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$97.06
+13.6% from the low
52-Week High
$149.25
-26.2% from the high
1 Month
-10.80%
3 Month
+0.62%
YTD
+3.8%
1 Year
-23.6%
3Y CAGR
+15.3%
5Y CAGR
+6.1%
10Y CAGR
+11.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TW vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
27.3x
vs 22.6x median
+20% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+17.5%
vs +1.2% median
+1303% above peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TW TW Tradeweb Markets Inc. | $23.5B | 27.3x | +17.5% | — | Buy | +18.1% |
ICE ICE Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. | $88.0B | 19.4x | +1.2% | — | Buy | +26.0% |
CME CME CME Group Inc. | $104.1B | 23.5x | +6.8% | — | Hold | +11.7% |
MKT MKTX MarketAxess Holdings Inc. | $5.6B | 18.5x | +9.4% | — | Hold | +29.3% |
CBO CBOE Cboe Global Markets, Inc. | $36.0B | 27.4x | -4.0% | — | Hold | -13.9% |
NDA NDAQ Nasdaq, Inc. | $50.6B | 22.6x | -2.6% | — | Buy | +28.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TW Dividend and Capital Return
TW returns 0.9% annually — 0.43% through dividends and 0.4% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.4%
Dividend Yield
0.43%
Payout Ratio
12.6%
How TW Splits Its Return
Div 0.43%
Buyback 0.4%
Dividend 0.43%Buybacks 0.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.48
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
5Y
3Y Div CAGR
14.5%
5Y Div CAGR
8.4%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$104M
Estimated Shares Retired
945.2K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
213M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.28 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.48 | +20.0% | 0.5% | 0.9% |
| 2024 | $0.40 | +11.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| 2023 | $0.36 | +12.5% | 0.2% | 0.6% |
| 2022 | $0.32 | 0.0% | 0.7% | 1.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsTW Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 28 analysts covering the stock, 17 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 11 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $130, implying +18.1% from the current price of $110. The bear case scenario is $45 and the bull case is $140.
02What is the TW stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TW is $130 based on 28 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $145 (+31.6% from today), and the low-end target is $112 (+1.6%). The base case model target is $131.
03Is Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW) stock overvalued in 2026?
TW trades at 27.3x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TW in 2026 are: (1) China-Taiwan Relations — China’s stated goal of reunification, potentially including the use of force, poses a substantial threat to TSMC’s operations and global supply chains. (2) De-Globalization & Trade Restrictions — Rising national security concerns have led to export restrictions, tariffs, and protectionist policies that disrupt global supply chains and increase operating costs for TSMC. (3) Geopolitical Concentration — TSMC’s most advanced manufacturing facilities remain concentrated in Taiwan, making the company vulnerable to cross‑strait tensions and global power dynamics. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Tradeweb Markets Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TW will report consensus revenue of $2.4B (+17.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.81 (-6.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $2.8B in revenue.
06When does Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for TW is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Tradeweb Markets Inc. generate?
Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW) generated $1.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. TW returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.4% yield) and share repurchases ($104M TTM).