Upside case
Bull case
$124-33.2%
The bull case prices TWLO at 22x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Twilio Inc. (TWLO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
52
analysts
39 bullish · 1 bearish · 52 covering TWLO
Strong Buy
0
Buy
39
Hold
12
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$197
+5.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$59 – $124
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
52
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
32.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $28.2B
TWLO price targets
Three scenarios for where TWLO stock could go
Current
~$186
Confidence
70 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $186
Bear
$59
Base
$94
Bull
$124
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$94-49.3%
At 17x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$59-68.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 22x multiple contraction could push TWLO down roughly 68% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Twilio Inc.
TWLO · NYSECommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationDecember year-end
Twilio is a cloud communications platform that enables developers to embed voice, messaging, video, and email capabilities into their applications through APIs. It generates revenue primarily from usage-based fees for its communication services — messaging (~60% of revenue), voice (~20%), and email/other services — with developers paying per message, minute, or email sent. Its key advantage is its developer-first platform with comprehensive APIs that create switching costs and network effects as more applications build on its infrastructure.
Market Cap
$28.2B
Revenue TTM
$5.3B
Net Income TTM
$104M
Net Margin
2.0%
TWLO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+29.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.19/$1.05
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.25/$1.07
Revenue
$1.3B/$1.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.33/$1.23
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.50/$1.27
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.19/$1.05 | +13.3% | $1.2B/$1.2B | +3.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.25/$1.07 | +16.8% | $1.3B/$1.3B | +3.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.33/$1.23 | +8.1% | $1.4B/$1.3B | +3.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.50/$1.27 | +18.1% | $1.4B/$1.3B | +4.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$5.9B
+11.6% YoY
FY2
$6.4B
+8.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.56
+288.3% YoY
FY2
$2.10
-18.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.0B
FCF Margin: 19.0%
Next Earnings
August 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.31
Expected Revenue
$1.4B
TWLO beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
TWLO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $3.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Messaging
73.3%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
64.1%
+12.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Messaging is the largest disclosed segment at 73.3% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 64.1%, up 12.0% YoY.
TWLO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $13 — implies -93.1% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
93.1%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TWLO
886.5x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+3526% premium
vs Communication Services Trailing P/E
TWLO
886.5x
vs
Communication Services
15.3x
+5695% premium
vs TWLO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
886.5x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
32.6x
S&P 500
18.8x
+73%
Communication Services
11.3x
+187%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
886.5x
S&P 500
24.4x
+3526%
Communication Services
15.3x
+5695%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Communication Services
0.64x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
73.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
+380%
Communication Services
9.6x
+658%
5Y Avg
59.0x
+24%
Price/FCF
27.3x
S&P 500
20.7x
+32%
Communication Services
11.4x
+140%
5Y Avg
29.2x
-6%
Price/Sales
5.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
+80%
Communication Services
1.0x
+446%
5Y Avg
6.1x
-8%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Communication Services
3.43%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | TWLO | S&P 500 | Communication Services | 5Y Avg TWLO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 32.6x | 18.8x+73% | 11.3x+187% | — |
| Trailing PE | 886.5x | 24.4x+3526% | 15.3x+5695% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.64x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 73.0x | 15.2x+380% | 9.6x+658% | 59.0x+24% |
| Price/FCF | 27.3x | 20.7x+32% | 11.4x+140% | 29.2x |
| Price/Sales | 5.6x | 3.1x+80% | 1.0x+446% | 6.1x |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 3.43% | — |
TWLO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTWLO Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
TWLO generates $1.0B in free cash flow at a 19.0% margin — returns 3.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$5.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+15.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
48.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
4.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
2.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.66
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.0B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
19.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
1.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$682M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$399M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.4× FCF
~0.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
1.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.1%
Dividend
—
Buyback
3.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$869M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
152M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTWLO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Valuation Risk
Stock trades well above intrinsic value estimates, with insider selling signaling potential overvaluation.
High Risk
Growth Slowdown
Bear case scenarios project mid-single-digit growth, contrasting with current AI-driven optimism.
Medium
Competitive Pressure
Rising competition and regulatory challenges may limit Twilio's pricing power and growth.
Medium
Revenue Growth Gap
8.3% revenue growth lags behind the 11% market benchmark, raising sustainability concerns.
Medium
Market Volatility
Stock price fluctuations may be driven by external factors unrelated to operational performance.
Lower
Financial Disclosure
Recent accounting disclosures highlight inconsistencies in net income figures, warranting scrutiny.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TWLO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strategic platform shift
Twilio's transition from transactional messaging to a comprehensive multi-product platform is viewed as a compelling growth opportunity.
Institutional ownership
Vanguard Group holds 12.2% of Twilio, indicating strong institutional confidence in the company.
Compelling valuation metrics
Twilio's forward P/E of 22 suggests attractive valuation potential for growth investors.
Market position
Twilio offers customer engagement platform solutions both in the United States and internationally, strengthening its market presence.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TWLO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$186.17
52W Range Position
64%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$91.84
+102.7% from the low
52-Week High
$238.48
-21.9% from the high
1 Month
-5.82%
3 Month
+47.11%
YTD
+34.6%
1 Year
+59.6%
3Y CAGR
+40.5%
5Y CAGR
-12.7%
10Y CAGR
+20.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TWLO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
32.6x
vs 15.9x median
+104% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+11.6%
vs +9.9% median
+18% above peer median
Net Margin
2.0%
vs 10.3% median
-81% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TWL TWLO Twilio Inc. | $28.2B | 32.6x | +11.6% | 2.0% | Buy | +5.9% |
BAN BAND Bandwidth Inc. | $1.6B | 28.6x | +11.1% | 2.0% | Buy | +16.8% |
ZCM ZCMD Zhongchao Inc. | $67533 | — | -18.9% | -25.5% | — | — |
MSG MSGM Motorsport Games Inc. | $20M | — | +83.0% | 45.7% | — | — |
SPO SPOK Spok Holdings, Inc. | $218M | 15.9x | +2.2% | 10.3% | Hold | +42.7% |
ZM ZM Zoom Communications, Inc. | $25.3B | 14.3x | +9.9% | 42.0% | Hold | +37.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TWLO Dividend and Capital Return
TWLO returns 3.1% annually — null% through dividends and 3.1% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
3.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.1%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$869M
Estimated Shares Retired
5M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
152M
At 3.1%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsTWLO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Twilio Inc. (TWLO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Twilio Inc. (TWLO) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 52 analysts covering the stock, 39 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 12 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $197, implying +5.9% from the current price of $186. The bear case scenario is $59 and the bull case is $124.
02What is the TWLO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TWLO is $197 based on 52 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $255 (+37.0% from today), and the low-end target is $100 (-46.3%). The base case model target is $94.
03Is Twilio Inc. (TWLO) stock overvalued in 2026?
TWLO trades at 32.6x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Twilio Inc. (TWLO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TWLO in 2026 are: (1) Valuation Risk — Stock trades well above intrinsic value estimates, with insider selling signaling potential overvaluation. (2) Growth Slowdown — Bear case scenarios project mid-single-digit growth, contrasting with current AI-driven optimism. (3) Competitive Pressure — Rising competition and regulatory challenges may limit Twilio's pricing power and growth. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Twilio Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TWLO will report consensus revenue of $5.9B (+11.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.56 (+288.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $6.4B in revenue.
06When does Twilio Inc. (TWLO) report its next earnings?
Twilio Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-06. Consensus expects EPS of $1.31 and revenue of $1.4B. Over recent quarters, TWLO has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Twilio Inc. generate?
Twilio Inc. (TWLO) generated $1.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 19.0%. TWLO returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($869M TTM).