Upside case
Bull case
$842+84.6%
ULTA would need investors to value it at roughly 29x earnings — about 13x more generous than today's 16x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
47
analysts
27 bullish · 1 bearish · 47 covering ULTA
Strong Buy
1
Buy
26
Hold
19
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$671
+47.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$403 – $842
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
47
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
15.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $19.6B
ULTA price targets
Three scenarios for where ULTA stock could go
Current
~$456
Confidence
63 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $456
Bear
$403
Base
$639
Bull
$842
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$639+40.1%
At 22x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$403-11.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push ULTA down roughly 12% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Ulta Beauty, Inc.
ULTA · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalSpecialty RetailJanuary year-end
Ulta Beauty is a specialty beauty retailer operating physical stores and an e-commerce platform that sells cosmetics, skincare, haircare, and fragrance products alongside in-store salon services. It generates revenue primarily from retail product sales — including its private label Ulta Beauty Collection — with salon services contributing a smaller portion of total sales. The company's key advantage is its unique "beauty playground" format that combines mass and prestige brands under one roof alongside professional salon services, creating a differentiated omnichannel experience.
Market Cap
$19.6B
Revenue TTM
$12.7B
Net Income TTM
$1.2B
Net Margin
9.4%
ULTA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+8.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$5.78/$5.10
Revenue
$2.8B/$2.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$5.14/$4.61
Revenue
$2.9B/$2.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$8.01/$8.10
Revenue
$3.9B/$3.8B
Q2 2026
EPS
$7.74/$6.89
Revenue
$3.2B/$3.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $5.78/$5.10 | +13.3% | $2.8B/$2.7B | +4.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.14/$4.61 | +11.5% | $2.9B/$2.7B | +5.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.01/$8.10 | -1.1% | $3.9B/$3.8B | +1.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.74/$6.89 | +12.3% | $3.2B/$3.1B | +1.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$13.7B
+7.7% YoY
FY2
$14.2B
+4.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$30.86
+14.1% YoY
FY2
$35.03
+13.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.0B
FCF Margin: 8.2%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
ULTA beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
ULTA Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $27M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Gift card breakage
100.0%
+11.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Gift card breakage is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 11.0% YoY.
ULTA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $244 — implies -46.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
46.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ULTA
17.8x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
27% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
ULTA
17.8x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
16% discount
vs ULTA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
17.8x
vs
5Y Average
20.5x
13% discount
Forward PE
15.9x
S&P 500
18.8x
-16%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
-3%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
17.8x
S&P 500
24.4x
-27%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
-16%
5Y Avg
20.5x
-13%
PEG Ratio
0.34x
S&P 500
1.66x
-80%
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
-63%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
11.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
-24%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
-5%
5Y Avg
14.0x
-18%
Price/FCF
18.4x
S&P 500
20.7x
-11%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
+18%
5Y Avg
23.3x
-21%
Price/Sales
1.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-49%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+127%
5Y Avg
2.2x
-29%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | ULTA | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg ULTA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 15.9x | 18.8x-16% | 16.3x | — |
| Trailing PE | 17.8x | 24.4x-27% | 21.2x-16% | 20.5x-13% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.34x | 1.66x-80% | 0.92x-63% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.6x | 15.2x-24% | 12.2x | 14.0x-18% |
| Price/FCF | 18.4x | 20.7x-11% | 15.6x+18% | 23.3x-21% |
| Price/Sales | 1.6x | 3.1x-49% | 0.7x+127% | 2.2x-29% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 2.17% | — |
ULTA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolULTA Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
ULTA generates $1.0B in free cash flow at a 8.2% margin — 28.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 4.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$12.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+11.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
39.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
12.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
9.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$27.04
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.0B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
8.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
28.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
17.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$424M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.7× FCF
~1.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
44.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.6%
Dividend
—
Buyback
4.6%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$901M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
43M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageULTA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Valuation de-rating
The average 12-month price target for Ulta Beauty has been reduced from $692.71 to $642.52, indicating potential overvaluation concerns.
Medium
Competitive pressures
Ulta Beauty faces competition from both high-end and low-end beauty retailers, including partnerships like Ulta Beauty at Target.
High Risk
Earnings risk factors
Ulta Beauty disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report, signaling significant operational and financial challenges.
Medium
Consumer spending shifts
As a discretionary retailer, Ulta Beauty is vulnerable to changes in consumer spending habits, especially during economic downturns.
Lower
Market saturation
With 1,519 stores across the U.S., Ulta Beauty may face growth limitations due to potential market saturation.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ULTA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Accelerating comp momentum
The company is experiencing accelerating comparable sales momentum, indicating strong performance and growth.
Improving consumer engagement
Ulta Beauty is seeing enhanced consumer engagement, which drives repeat business and brand loyalty.
Conservative guidance upside
The company's conservative FY25 guidance leaves room for upside potential as performance exceeds expectations.
Stock price appreciation
Ulta Beauty's stock price has appreciated by approximately 34% since coverage, reflecting strong investor confidence.
Diverse product offerings
Ulta carries a wide range of beauty products, from high-end to low-end, catering to diverse customer preferences.
Omnichannel retail strategy
Ulta offers in-store, online, and app shopping with options like curbside pickup, enhancing convenience for customers.
Beauty salon services
Each Ulta location includes a beauty salon, driving foot traffic and additional revenue streams.
Strong brand partnerships
Ulta collaborates with top beauty brands, offering exclusive products and attracting a broad customer base.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ULTA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$456.13
52W Range Position
3%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$448.57
+1.7% from the low
52-Week High
$714.97
-36.2% from the high
1 Month
-4.95%
3 Month
-12.39%
YTD
-26.4%
1 Year
-3.7%
3Y CAGR
+0.7%
5Y CAGR
+6.9%
10Y CAGR
+6.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ULTA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
15.9x
vs 7.8x median
+102% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.7%
vs +0.7% median
+1008% above peer median
Net Margin
9.4%
vs 3.3% median
+180% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ULT ULTA Ulta Beauty, Inc. | $19.6B | 15.9x | +7.7% | 9.4% | Buy | +47.1% |
BBW BBWI Bath & Body Works, Inc. | $4.1B | 6.9x | +0.1% | 10.0% | Hold | +5.6% |
ELF ELF e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. | $3.8B | 19.5x | +5.1% | 3.3% | Buy | +16.5% |
COT COTY Coty Inc. | $1.7B | 8.8x | +0.9% | -9.3% | Hold | +102.1% |
SBH SBH Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. | $1.3B | 6.7x | +0.7% | 4.9% | Hold | +28.3% |
SKI SKIN The Beauty Health Company | $86M | — | -8.2% | -2.0% | Hold | +130.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ULTA Dividend and Capital Return
ULTA returns 4.6% annually — null% through dividends and 4.6% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
4.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
4.6%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$901M
Estimated Shares Retired
2M
Approx. Share Reduction
4.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
43M
At 4.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | $1.00 | — | 0.0% | 1.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsULTA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 47 analysts covering the stock, 27 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 19 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $671, implying +47.1% from the current price of $456. The bear case scenario is $403 and the bull case is $842.
02What is the ULTA stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ULTA is $671 based on 47 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $790 (+73.2% from today), and the low-end target is $550 (+20.6%). The base case model target is $639.
03Is Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) stock overvalued in 2026?
ULTA trades at 15.9x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ULTA in 2026 are: (1) Valuation de-rating — The average 12-month price target for Ulta Beauty has been reduced from $692. (2) Earnings risk factors — Ulta Beauty disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report, signaling significant operational and financial challenges. (3) Competitive pressures — Ulta Beauty faces competition from both high-end and low-end beauty retailers, including partnerships like Ulta Beauty at Target. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ULTA will report consensus revenue of $13.7B (+7.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $30.86 (+14.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $14.2B in revenue.
06When does Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for ULTA is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Ulta Beauty, Inc. generate?
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) generated $1.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 8.2%. ULTA returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($901M TTM).