Upside case
Bull case
$2534+373.6%
ULTA would need investors to value it at roughly 89x earnings — about 70x more generous than today's 19x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
47
analysts
27 bullish · 1 bearish · 47 covering ULTA
Strong Buy
1
Buy
26
Hold
19
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$727
+35.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$366 – $2534
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
47
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
18.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $24.5B
ULTA price targets
Three scenarios for where ULTA stock could go
Current
~$535
Confidence
58 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $535
Bear
$366
Base
$728
Bull
$2534
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$728+36.1%
At 25x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$366-31.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 6x multiple contraction could push ULTA down roughly 32% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Ulta Beauty, Inc.
ULTA · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalSpecialty RetailJanuary year-end
Ulta Beauty is a specialty beauty retailer operating physical stores and an e-commerce platform that sells cosmetics, skincare, haircare, and fragrance products alongside in-store salon services. It generates revenue primarily from retail product sales — including its private label Ulta Beauty Collection — with salon services contributing a smaller portion of total sales. The company's key advantage is its unique "beauty playground" format that combines mass and prestige brands under one roof alongside professional salon services, creating a differentiated omnichannel experience.
Market Cap
$24.5B
Revenue TTM
$12.4B
Net Income TTM
$1.2B
Net Margin
9.3%
ULTA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$6.70/$5.81
Revenue
$2.8B/$2.8B
Q3 2025
EPS
$5.78/$5.10
Revenue
$2.8B/$2.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$5.14/$4.61
Revenue
$2.9B/$2.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$8.01/$8.10
Revenue
$3.9B/$3.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $6.70/$5.81 | +15.3% | $2.8B/$2.8B | +1.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.78/$5.10 | +13.3% | $2.8B/$2.7B | +4.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.14/$4.61 | +11.5% | $2.9B/$2.7B | +5.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.01/$8.10 | -1.1% | $3.9B/$3.8B | +1.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$13.4B
+8.1% YoY
FY2
$14.5B
+8.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$29.87
+16.5% YoY
FY2
$34.89
+16.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$986M
FCF Margin: 8.0%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
ULTA beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
ULTA Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $24M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Gift card breakage
100.0%
+7.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Gift card breakage is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2024 revenue, up 7.5% YoY.
ULTA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $747 — implies +40.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
40.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ULTA
20.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
17% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
ULTA
20.9x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+7% premium
vs ULTA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
20.9x
vs
5Y Average
20.5x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
18.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
-2%
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
+23%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
20.9x
S&P 500
25.2x
-17%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+7%
5Y Avg
20.5x
+2%
PEG Ratio
0.40x
S&P 500
1.75x
-77%
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
-58%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
5.4x
S&P 500
15.3x
-64%
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
-52%
5Y Avg
12.0x
-55%
Price/FCF
22.9x
S&P 500
21.3x
+7%
Consumer Cyclical
15.0x
+53%
5Y Avg
23.3x
-2%
Price/Sales
2.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-37%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+178%
5Y Avg
2.2x
-12%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | ULTA | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg ULTA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 18.7x | 19.1x | 15.2x+23% | — |
| Trailing PE | 20.9x | 25.2x-17% | 19.6x | 20.5x |
| PEG Ratio | 0.40x | 1.75x-77% | 0.95x-58% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.4x | 15.3x-64% | 11.4x-52% | 12.0x-55% |
| Price/FCF | 22.9x | 21.3x | 15.0x+53% | 23.3x |
| Price/Sales | 2.0x | 3.1x-37% | 0.7x+178% | 2.2x-12% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 2.15% | — |
ULTA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolULTA Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
ULTA 87.9% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 3.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$12.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+9.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
39.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
39.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
9.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$25.64
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$986M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
8.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
87.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
17.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$424M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.8× FCF
~1.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
44.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.7%
Dividend
—
Buyback
3.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$901M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
45M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageULTA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Competition
Ulta operates in a highly competitive beauty retail sector, facing significant rivals such as Sephora, Amazon, and mass retailers like Target and Walmart. The increasing presence of beauty offerings within mass retailers intensifies competition, particularly in the prestige beauty segment.
High Risk
Macroeconomic Pressures
Economic downturns, inflation, and changing consumer spending habits pose significant risks to Ulta. Consumers are becoming more value-conscious and may reduce discretionary spending on beauty products, impacting sales and profitability.
High Risk
Supply Chain Disruptions
Ulta is susceptible to disruptions in its global supply chain, which can affect product availability and increase costs. Issues related to overseas sourcing and manufacturing delays could lead to lost sales and diminished customer satisfaction.
Medium
Shifting Consumer Preferences
The beauty industry is dynamic, with rapidly changing trends and consumer preferences. Ulta must continuously adapt to meet evolving demands, including the growing interest in personalized beauty experiences and sustainable products.
Medium
Operational and Cost Pressures
Rising operational costs, including labor expenses and investments in international expansion, can squeeze Ulta's profit margins. The company also faces risks related to inventory management and potential markdowns if trends are misjudged.
Medium
Reliance on the U.S. Market
Ulta's operations are heavily concentrated in the United States, making it vulnerable to economic and regulatory changes within this single market. Any significant downturn or regulatory shift could adversely affect its performance.
Lower
Product Liability and Reputation
Undesirable side effects from Ulta Beauty branded products or negligent salon services could lead to lawsuits and damage to the company's reputation. Such incidents could result in product discontinuance and financial liabilities.
Lower
Technology and Cybersecurity
Ulta faces risks associated with AI, cybersecurity, and data privacy, particularly given the importance of its loyalty program. A significant data breach could undermine consumer trust and lead to financial repercussions.
Lower
Regulatory Complexity
The beauty industry is subject to various regulations concerning product safety, labeling, and advertising. Changes in these regulations could impact operations and increase compliance costs for Ulta.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ULTA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Omnichannel Excellence
Ulta Beauty has successfully integrated its physical stores, e-commerce platform, and the 'Ulta Beauty at Target' shop-in-shop network to create a seamless shopping experience. This hybrid model allows for broad customer reach and convenience.
Loyalty Program Strength
The 'Ultamate Rewards' program boasts over 44 million active members, with a significant majority of transactions tied to these profiles. This program drives customer engagement, repeat purchases, and provides valuable data for personalized marketing.
Differentiated Product Assortment
Ulta offers a wide selection of over 25,000 products from more than 600 brands, encompassing both mass-market and prestige categories. This 'high-low' product mix appeals to a broad demographic and makes it difficult for competitors to match.
Strategic Expansion Initiatives
Ulta is expanding its physical footprint with plans for new store openings and is pursuing international growth through ventures in Mexico and Canada. The partnership with Target aims for over 800 shop-in-shop locations, further extending its reach.
Focus on Wellness and Clean Beauty
The company is expanding its 'Conscious Beauty' program and product offerings in wellness and clean beauty categories, aligning with evolving consumer preferences.
Strong Financial Performance
Ulta has demonstrated strong financial performance, with net sales increasing by 9.7% to $12.4 billion for fiscal year 2025, and comparable sales growing by 5.4%. The company also maintains a strong return on invested capital (ROIC) and return on equity (ROE).
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ULTA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$535.10
52W Range Position
45%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$386.00
+38.6% from the low
52-Week High
$714.97
-25.2% from the high
1 Month
-1.39%
3 Month
-22.49%
YTD
-13.7%
1 Year
+38.2%
3Y CAGR
+1.2%
5Y CAGR
+11.0%
10Y CAGR
+9.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ULTA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
18.7x
vs 8.2x median
+127% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+8.1%
vs -0.1% median
+8016% above peer median
Net Margin
9.3%
vs 4.9% median
+91% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ULT ULTA Ulta Beauty, Inc. | $24.5B | 18.7x | +8.1% | 9.3% | Buy | +35.9% |
BBW BBWI Bath & Body Works, Inc. | $3.9B | 6.4x | -0.4% | 8.9% | Hold | +9.4% |
ELF ELF e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. | $3.4B | 19.8x | +25.2% | 6.8% | Buy | +54.9% |
COT COTY Coty Inc. | $2.3B | 9.7x | +0.0% | -9.3% | Hold | +51.3% |
SBH SBH Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. | $1.4B | 6.8x | -0.1% | 4.9% | Hold | +27.0% |
SKI SKIN The Beauty Health Company | $121M | — | -2.5% | -3.2% | Hold | +39.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ULTA Dividend and Capital Return
ULTA returns 3.7% annually — null% through dividends and 3.7% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
3.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.7%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$901M
Estimated Shares Retired
2M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
45M
At 3.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | $1.00 | — | 0.0% | 1.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsULTA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 47 analysts covering the stock, 27 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 19 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $727, implying +35.9% from the current price of $535. The bear case scenario is $366 and the bull case is $2534.
02What is the ULTA stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ULTA is $727 based on 47 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $810 (+51.4% from today), and the low-end target is $650 (+21.5%). The base case model target is $728.
03Is Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) stock overvalued in 2026?
ULTA trades at 18.7x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ULTA in 2026 are: (1) Competition — Ulta operates in a highly competitive beauty retail sector, facing significant rivals such as Sephora, Amazon, and mass retailers like Target and Walmart. (2) Macroeconomic Pressures — Economic downturns, inflation, and changing consumer spending habits pose significant risks to Ulta. (3) Supply Chain Disruptions — Ulta is susceptible to disruptions in its global supply chain, which can affect product availability and increase costs. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ULTA will report consensus revenue of $13.4B (+8.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $29.87 (+16.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $14.5B in revenue.
06When does Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for ULTA is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Ulta Beauty, Inc. generate?
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) generated $986M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 8.0%. ULTA returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($901M TTM).