Upside case
Bull case
$868+74.7%
MA would need investors to value it at roughly 44x earnings — about 19x more generous than today's 25x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Mastercard Incorporated (MA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
64
analysts
51 bullish · 0 bearish · 64 covering MA
Strong Buy
1
Buy
50
Hold
13
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$657
+32.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$518 – $868
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
64
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
25.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $440.0B
MA price targets
Three scenarios for where MA stock could go
Current
~$497
Confidence
82 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $497
Bear
$518
Base
$707
Bull
$868
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$707+42.2%
At 36x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$518+4.2%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push MA down roughly 4% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Mastercard Incorporated
MA · NYSEFinancial ServicesFinancial - Credit ServicesDecember year-end
Mastercard is a global payment technology company that operates a network connecting consumers, merchants, financial institutions, and governments. It generates revenue primarily from transaction processing fees—charging a small percentage of each payment volume—and from service fees for its data analytics, consulting, and security solutions. The company's moat lies in its massive two-sided network effect—the more merchants accept Mastercard, the more valuable it becomes to cardholders, and vice versa—creating a powerful ecosystem that's difficult to replicate.
Market Cap
$440.0B
Net Income TTM
$15.6B
MA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$4.15/$4.03
Revenue
$8.1B/$7.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$4.38/$4.32
Revenue
$8.6B/$8.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$4.76/$4.24
Revenue
$8.8B/$8.8B
Q2 2026
EPS
$4.60/$4.41
Revenue
$8.4B/$8.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $4.15/$4.03 | +3.0% | $8.1B/$7.9B | +2.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.38/$4.32 | +1.4% | $8.6B/$8.5B | +0.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.76/$4.24 | +12.3% | $8.8B/$8.8B | +0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.60/$4.41 | +4.3% | $8.4B/$8.3B | +1.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$37.4B
+14.1% YoY
FY2
$43.0B
+15.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$19.83
+13.7% YoY
FY2
$23.50
+18.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$17.7B
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
MA beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
MA Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $32.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Payment Network
59.4%
+12.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
International Markets
57.2%
+18.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Payment Network is the largest disclosed segment at 59.4% of FY 2025 revenue, up 12.4% YoY.
International Markets is the largest reported region at 57.2%, up 18.7% YoY.
MA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $323 — implies -34.7% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
34.7%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MA
30.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+20% premium
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
MA
30.1x
vs
Financial Services
13.3x
+126% premium
vs MA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
30.1x
vs
5Y Average
36.7x
18% discount
Forward PE
25.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
+33%
Financial Services
10.4x
+144%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
30.1x
S&P 500
25.1x
+20%
Financial Services
13.3x
+126%
5Y Avg
36.7x
-18%
PEG Ratio
1.43x
S&P 500
1.72x
-16%
Financial Services
1.01x
+42%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
21.8x
S&P 500
15.2x
+43%
Financial Services
11.4x
+91%
5Y Avg
28.7x
-24%
Price/FCF
26.0x
S&P 500
21.1x
+23%
Financial Services
10.6x
+147%
5Y Avg
34.8x
-25%
Price/Sales
13.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+329%
Financial Services
2.2x
+503%
5Y Avg
16.6x
-19%
Dividend Yield
0.62%
S&P 500
1.87%
-67%
Financial Services
2.70%
-77%
5Y Avg
0.53%
+18%
| Metric | MA | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg MA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 25.4x | 19.1x+33% | 10.4x+144% | — |
| Trailing PE | 30.1x | 25.1x+20% | 13.3x+126% | 36.7x-18% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.43x | 1.72x-16% | 1.01x+42% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.8x | 15.2x+43% | 11.4x+91% | 28.7x-24% |
| Price/FCF | 26.0x | 21.1x+23% | 10.6x+147% | 34.8x-25% |
| Price/Sales | 13.4x | 3.1x+329% | 2.2x+503% | 16.6x-19% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.62% | 1.87% | 2.70% | 0.53% |
MA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMA Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
MA generates 205.8% ROE and 29.5% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$17.44
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
205.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
56.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
29.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$10.6B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$8.4B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
205.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.3%
Dividend
0.6%
Buyback
2.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$11.7B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.07
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
18.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
885M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageMA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory & Legal Scrutiny
Visa and Mastercard face intense regulatory scrutiny worldwide, including investigations into interchange fee structures, routing practices, and alleged monopolistic behavior. The proposed Credit Card Competition Act (CCCA) in the U.S. could cap card fees, mandate alternative card offerings, and allow merchants to reject certain cards, directly eroding revenue streams. Ongoing antitrust litigation and FTC warnings over “debanking” practices further heighten the risk of costly settlements and reputational damage.
High Risk
Economic Conditions & Consumer Spending
The companies’ revenues are tightly linked to consumer and business spending. A recession, increased financial stress, or higher interest rates can reduce transaction volumes, especially in cross‑border commerce, which is more profitable. A significant downturn could compress transaction growth and lower fee income.
Medium
Competition & Technological Disruption
Fintech entrants, mobile wallets, and direct bank‑to‑bank transfer services threaten to disintermediate card networks. Domestic payment networks favored by local regulations can erode market share in key regions. Continuous investment in tokenization, fraud prevention, and AI analytics is required to maintain competitive advantage.
Medium
Operational & Strategic Risks
Cybersecurity threats and data breaches can disrupt operations, damage reputation, and increase compliance costs. Strategic missteps, such as the reported exploration of selling its real‑time payments unit at a loss, may signal execution risk. Shifts in partner behavior (banks, merchants, tech platforms) can also impact results.
Lower
Valuation & Growth Expectations
Mastercard trades at high P/E and P/S ratios, reflecting lofty growth expectations. Even a modest slowdown in transaction growth could pressure the stock, leaving little room for error. The high valuation amplifies downside risk if performance fails to meet market expectations.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Network Effects & Market Dominance
Mastercard’s global network connects consumers, merchants, and financial institutions, creating strong network effects that deter competitors. Its entrenched scale and reach make it difficult for rivals to replicate.
Financial Strength & Growth
In 2025, revenue rose 16.42% YoY to $32.79 B, earnings up 16.27% to $14.97 B. Earnings are projected to grow ~16.97% next year, with ROE 203.92% and ROIC 51.2%.
Strategic Investments & Diversification
Mastercard is investing in AI‑powered “agentic commerce,” expanding value‑added services, and integrating stablecoin capabilities. Its value‑added services division shows strong growth, boosting margins and diversifying revenue.
Shareholder Returns
Mastercard has increased dividends with a 3‑year CAGR of 15.06%, placing it in the top 25% of its industry. The company also conducts significant share buybacks, signaling leadership confidence.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$497.08
52W Range Position
14%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$480.50
+3.5% from the low
52-Week High
$601.77
-17.4% from the high
1 Month
-0.88%
3 Month
-9.93%
YTD
-11.7%
1 Year
-11.4%
3Y CAGR
+8.9%
5Y CAGR
+6.1%
10Y CAGR
+17.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
25.4x
vs 8.8x median
+190% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+14.1%
vs +3.2% median
+346% above peer median
Net Margin
—
vs 9.3% median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MA Mastercard Incorporated | $440.0B | 25.4x | +14.1% | — | Buy | +32.1% |
V V Visa Inc. | $617.8B | 24.6x | +12.6% | — | Buy | +12.6% |
AXP AXP American Express Company | $216.7B | 17.9x | +2.2% | — | Hold | +18.2% |
PYP PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc. | $42.8B | 8.8x | +3.2% | — | Hold | +11.2% |
FIS FIS Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. | $24.1B | 7.4x | +14.7% | 3.5% | Buy | +44.6% |
FIS FISV Fiserv, Inc. | $30.6B | 7.1x | -1.6% | 15.2% | Buy | +30.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MA Dividend and Capital Return
MA returns capital mainly through $11.7B/year in buybacks (2.7% buyback yield), with a modest 0.62% dividend — combining for 3.3% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 14 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
3.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.7%
Dividend Yield
0.62%
Payout Ratio
18.4%
How MA Splits Its Return
Div 0.62%
Buyback 2.7%
Dividend 0.62%Buybacks 2.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.07
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
14Y
3Y Div CAGR
15.8%
5Y Div CAGR
13.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$11.7B
Estimated Shares Retired
24M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
885M
At 2.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.74 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.04 | +15.2% | 2.3% | 2.8% |
| 2024 | $2.64 | +15.8% | 2.3% | 2.8% |
| 2023 | $2.28 | +16.3% | 2.2% | 2.8% |
| 2022 | $1.96 | +11.4% | 2.6% | 3.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsMA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Mastercard Incorporated (MA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Mastercard Incorporated (MA) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 64 analysts covering the stock, 51 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 13 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $657, implying +32.1% from the current price of $497. The bear case scenario is $518 and the bull case is $868.
02What is the MA stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MA is $657 based on 64 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $739 (+48.7% from today), and the low-end target is $590 (+18.7%). The base case model target is $707.
03Is Mastercard Incorporated (MA) stock overvalued in 2026?
MA trades at 25.4x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Mastercard Incorporated (MA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MA in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory & Legal Scrutiny — Visa and Mastercard face intense regulatory scrutiny worldwide, including investigations into interchange fee structures, routing practices, and alleged monopolistic behavior. (2) Economic Conditions & Consumer Spending — The companies’ revenues are tightly linked to consumer and business spending. (3) Competition & Technological Disruption — Fintech entrants, mobile wallets, and direct bank‑to‑bank transfer services threaten to disintermediate card networks. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Mastercard Incorporated's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MA will report consensus revenue of $37.4B (+14.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $19.83 (+13.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $43.0B in revenue.
06When does Mastercard Incorporated (MA) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for MA is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Mastercard Incorporated generate?
Mastercard Incorporated (MA) generated $17.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. MA returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.6% yield) and share repurchases ($11.7B TTM).