Upside case
Bull case
$684+116.6%
AXP would need investors to value it at roughly 39x earnings — about 21x more generous than today's 18x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
American Express Company (AXP) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
57
analysts
21 bullish · 4 bearish · 57 covering AXP
Strong Buy
0
Buy
21
Hold
32
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$373
+18.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$234 – $684
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
57
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
17.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $216.7B
AXP price targets
Three scenarios for where AXP stock could go
Current
~$316
Confidence
65 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $316
Bear
$234
Base
$411
Bull
$684
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$411+30.1%
At 23x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$234-25.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 5x multiple contraction could push AXP down roughly 26% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
American Express Company
AXP · NYSEFinancial ServicesFinancial - Credit ServicesDecember year-end
American Express is a global payments and financial services company that issues charge and credit cards to consumers and businesses. It generates revenue primarily from discount fees charged to merchants — typically 2-3% of transaction value — and cardmember fees, with additional income from interest on revolving balances and travel services. Its key competitive advantage is its premium brand positioning and closed-loop network — which allows it to control both card issuance and merchant acceptance while collecting rich transaction data.
Market Cap
$216.7B
Net Income TTM
$11.2B
AXP Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$4.08/$3.89
Revenue
$17.9B/$17.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$4.14/$4.00
Revenue
$18.4B/$18.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.53/$3.54
Revenue
$19.0B/$18.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$4.28/$4.00
Revenue
$18.9B/$18.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $4.08/$3.89 | +4.9% | $17.9B/$17.7B | +0.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.14/$4.00 | +3.5% | $18.4B/$18.0B | +2.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.53/$3.54 | -0.3% | $19.0B/$18.9B | +0.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.28/$4.00 | +7.0% | $18.9B/$18.6B | +1.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$82.2B
+2.2% YoY
FY2
$90.5B
+10.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$17.76
+8.6% YoY
FY2
$20.01
+12.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$14.3B
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
AXP beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
AXP Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $72.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Global Consumer Services Group
48.0%
+10.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
United States Geographic Region
77.6%
+8.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Global Consumer Services Group is the largest disclosed segment at 48.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 10.8% YoY.
United States Geographic Region is the largest reported region at 77.6%, up 8.8% YoY.
AXP Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $218 — implies -31.7% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
31.7%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AXP
20.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
18% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
AXP
20.5x
vs
Financial Services
13.3x
+54% premium
vs AXP 5Y Avg P/E
Today
20.5x
vs
5Y Average
18.7x
+10% premium
Forward PE
17.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
-6%
Financial Services
10.4x
+72%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
20.5x
S&P 500
25.1x
-18%
Financial Services
13.3x
+54%
5Y Avg
18.7x
+10%
PEG Ratio
0.63x
S&P 500
1.72x
-63%
Financial Services
1.01x
-37%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
-4%
Financial Services
11.4x
+28%
5Y Avg
13.4x
+9%
Price/FCF
13.5x
S&P 500
21.1x
-36%
Financial Services
10.6x
+28%
5Y Avg
11.5x
+18%
Price/Sales
2.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
-14%
Financial Services
2.2x
+21%
5Y Avg
2.6x
+4%
Dividend Yield
1.03%
S&P 500
1.87%
-45%
Financial Services
2.70%
-62%
5Y Avg
1.13%
-9%
| Metric | AXP | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg AXP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 17.9x | 19.1x | 10.4x+72% | — |
| Trailing PE | 20.5x | 25.1x-18% | 13.3x+54% | 18.7x+10% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.63x | 1.72x-63% | 1.01x-37% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.6x | 15.2x | 11.4x+28% | 13.4x |
| Price/FCF | 13.5x | 21.1x-36% | 10.6x+28% | 11.5x+18% |
| Price/Sales | 2.7x | 3.1x-14% | 2.2x+21% | 2.6x |
| Dividend Yield | 1.03% | 1.87% | 2.70% | 1.13% |
AXP trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAXP Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
AXP generates 33.9% ROE and 3.7% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$16.36
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
33.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
12.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$47.7B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$10.1B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
33.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.7%
Dividend
1.0%
Buyback
2.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$5.8B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.26
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
21.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
686M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageAXP Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Credit Defaults
American Express faces significant credit risk from card members and partners defaulting on payments, especially given its exposure to consumer and small‑business loans. Deteriorating U.S. economic conditions could exacerbate defaults and force higher loan‑loss provisions, directly impacting profitability.
High Risk
Regulatory & Legal
The company operates in a heavily regulated environment where changes such as caps on credit‑card interest rates, late fees, or CFPB Section 1033 open‑banking rules could materially affect operations and financial condition. Ongoing legal scrutiny may lead to enforcement actions, fines, or restrictions on activities.
High Risk
Competitive Pressure
Intense competition from banks, Visa, Mastercard, and fintech firms can erode pricing power, merchant relationships, and market share. Loss of key partnerships, such as the past Costco arrangement, could result in substantial revenue declines.
Medium
Operational & Cybersecurity
Expansion of digital services increases exposure to fraud and cyberattacks, potentially leading to data breaches and financial losses. Operational failures from inadequate processes or human error also pose risks to service continuity.
Medium
Market & Economic
Economic downturns, rising unemployment, and inflation—particularly in travel—can reduce consumer spending and increase credit risk. Tariff policies and global trade volatility may dampen cross‑border spending and B2B transactions.
Lower
Other Risks
Potential credit rating downgrades could raise funding costs and limit capital‑market access. Reputational damage and valuation concerns (e.g., high P/E relative to peers) may also impact the business model.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AXP Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Closed‑Loop Business Model
American Express operates a closed‑loop system that controls card issuance, payment processing and customer relationships, allowing it to capture a larger share of transaction economics. The model enables heavy investment in member benefits, reinforcing customer loyalty and driving repeat spend.
High Loyalty‑Driven Spending
Over 70% of Amex’s costs are tied to member benefits, which fuels strong retention. Millennials and Gen Z are now contributing to spending at a rate matching Gen X in Q3 2025, expanding the high‑spending customer base.
Consistent Revenue & EPS Growth
In 2025, revenue rose 10.22% YoY to $66.97 billion and earnings grew 7.06% to $10.70 billion. Analysts project a 14.81% EPS increase next year, with ROE averaging 25‑35% over the past 15 years.
Robust Dividend Expansion
American Express has a 10‑year dividend CAGR of 11.2% and dividends have climbed 58% over the last three years, supported by a sustainable payout ratio.
Premium Brand & Innovation
Amex’s brand strength is pronounced among affluent and younger demographics, and its premium model combined with continuous innovation drives long‑term growth.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AXP Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$315.95
52W Range Position
37%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$273.61
+15.5% from the low
52-Week High
$387.49
-18.5% from the high
1 Month
+3.37%
3 Month
-10.90%
YTD
-15.2%
1 Year
+13.6%
3Y CAGR
+27.4%
5Y CAGR
+15.1%
10Y CAGR
+17.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AXP vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
17.9x
vs 13.9x median
+29% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.2%
vs +11.8% median
-81% below peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AXP AXP American Express Company | $216.7B | 17.9x | +2.2% | — | Hold | +18.2% |
V V Visa Inc. | $617.8B | 24.6x | +12.6% | — | Buy | +12.6% |
MA MA Mastercard Incorporated | $440.0B | 25.4x | +14.1% | — | Buy | +32.1% |
COF COF Capital One Financial Corporation | $117.4B | 9.6x | +11.8% | — | Buy | +40.9% |
JPM JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. | $834.2B | 13.9x | -6.4% | — | Buy | +9.5% |
BAC BAC Bank of America Corporation | $404.3B | 11.9x | -17.8% | — | Buy | +15.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AXP Dividend and Capital Return
AXP returns capital mainly through $5.8B/year in buybacks (2.7% buyback yield), with a modest 1.03% dividend — combining for 3.7% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 15 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
3.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.7%
Dividend Yield
1.03%
Payout Ratio
21.0%
How AXP Splits Its Return
Div 1.03%
Buyback 2.7%
Dividend 1.03%Buybacks 2.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.26
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
15Y
3Y Div CAGR
16.7%
5Y Div CAGR
12.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$5.8B
Estimated Shares Retired
18M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
686M
At 2.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.77 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.16 | +17.0% | 2.3% | 3.1% |
| 2024 | $2.70 | +16.4% | 2.8% | 3.8% |
| 2023 | $2.32 | +16.6% | 2.6% | 3.9% |
| 2022 | $1.99 | +15.7% | 3.2% | 4.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsAXP Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is American Express Company (AXP) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
American Express Company (AXP) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 57 analysts covering the stock, 21 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 32 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $373, implying +18.2% from the current price of $316. The bear case scenario is $234 and the bull case is $684.
02What is the AXP stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AXP is $373 based on 57 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $415 (+31.3% from today), and the low-end target is $322 (+1.9%). The base case model target is $411.
03Is American Express Company (AXP) stock overvalued in 2026?
AXP trades at 17.9x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for American Express Company (AXP) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AXP in 2026 are: (1) Credit Defaults — American Express faces significant credit risk from card members and partners defaulting on payments, especially given its exposure to consumer and small‑business loans. (2) Regulatory & Legal — The company operates in a heavily regulated environment where changes such as caps on credit‑card interest rates, late fees, or CFPB Section 1033 open‑banking rules could materially affect operations and financial condition. (3) Competitive Pressure — Intense competition from banks, Visa, Mastercard, and fintech firms can erode pricing power, merchant relationships, and market share. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is American Express Company's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AXP will report consensus revenue of $82.2B (+2.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $17.76 (+8.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $90.5B in revenue.
06When does American Express Company (AXP) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for AXP is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does American Express Company generate?
American Express Company (AXP) generated $14.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. AXP returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.0% yield) and share repurchases ($5.8B TTM).