Upside case
Bull case
$104+554.3%
VALE would need investors to value it at roughly 52x earnings — about 44x more generous than today's 8x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Vale S.A. (VALE) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
37
analysts
16 bullish · 4 bearish · 37 covering VALE
Strong Buy
0
Buy
16
Hold
17
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$17
+4.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$15 – $104
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
37
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
8.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $69.5B
VALE price targets
Three scenarios for where VALE stock could go
Current
~$16
Confidence
34 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $16
Bear
$15
Base
$28
Bull
$104
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$28+78.6%
At 14x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$15-3.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 0x multiple contraction could push VALE down roughly 3% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Vale S.A.
VALE · NYSEBasic MaterialsIndustrial MaterialsDecember year-end
Vale is a global mining company that produces and sells iron ore, nickel, copper, and other metals essential for industrial and energy transition applications. It generates revenue primarily from iron ore sales — which account for the majority of its earnings — along with nickel, copper, and other base metals. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive, high-quality iron ore reserves in Brazil and its integrated logistics network — including railways and ports — that provide cost advantages in delivering products to global markets.
Market Cap
$69.5B
Revenue TTM
$39.5B
Net Income TTM
$2.8B
Net Margin
7.1%
VALE Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
8%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-29.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.50/$0.34
Revenue
$8.8B/$9.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.63/$0.49
Revenue
$10.4B/$10.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$-0.90/$0.57
Revenue
$11.1B/$10.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.44/$0.52
Revenue
$9.3B/$9.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.50/$0.34 | +47.1% | $8.8B/$9.4B | -6.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.63/$0.49 | +28.6% | $10.4B/$10.8B | -3.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $-0.90/$0.57 | -257.9% | $11.1B/$10.9B | +1.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.44/$0.52 | -15.7% | $9.3B/$9.5B | -2.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$39.4B
-0.4% YoY
FY2
$39.0B
-1.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.96
+47.1% YoY
FY2
$1.04
+7.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.4B
FCF Margin: 8.5%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
VALE beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
VALE Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $29.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Iron Ore
86.3%
+0.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Iron Ore is the largest disclosed segment at 86.3% of FY 2025 revenue, up 0.8% YoY.
VALE Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $24 — implies +46.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
46.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
VALE
27.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+9% premium
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
VALE
27.5x
vs
Basic Materials
22.3x
+23% premium
vs VALE 5Y Avg P/E
Today
27.5x
vs
5Y Average
9.0x
+206% premium
Forward PE
8.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
-58%
Basic Materials
15.2x
-48%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
27.5x
S&P 500
25.1x
+9%
Basic Materials
22.3x
+23%
5Y Avg
9.0x
+206%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Basic Materials
1.17x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
5.8x
S&P 500
15.2x
-62%
Basic Materials
11.0x
-47%
5Y Avg
4.0x
+44%
Price/FCF
22.7x
S&P 500
21.1x
+8%
Basic Materials
25.6x
-11%
5Y Avg
11.4x
+99%
Price/Sales
1.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
-42%
Basic Materials
1.9x
-4%
5Y Avg
1.4x
+26%
Dividend Yield
5.25%
S&P 500
1.87%
+181%
Basic Materials
1.32%
+297%
5Y Avg
10.44%
-50%
| Metric | VALE | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg VALE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 8.0x | 19.1x-58% | 15.2x-48% | — |
| Trailing PE | 27.5x | 25.1x | 22.3x+23% | 9.0x+206% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.17x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.8x | 15.2x-62% | 11.0x-47% | 4.0x+44% |
| Price/FCF | 22.7x | 21.1x | 25.6x-11% | 11.4x+99% |
| Price/Sales | 1.8x | 3.1x-42% | 1.9x | 1.4x+26% |
| Dividend Yield | 5.25% | 1.87% | 1.32% | 10.44% |
VALE trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolVALE Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
VALE generates $3.4B in free cash flow at a 8.5% margin — 17.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 5.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$39.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+6.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
34.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
27.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
7.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.65
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$3.4B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
8.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
17.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$7.4B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$12.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.6× FCF
~3.6 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
7.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.2%
Dividend
5.2%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.84
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
144.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
4.4B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageVALE Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Iron Ore Price Sensitivity
Vale's earnings are tightly linked to iron ore prices, which are driven by global demand, especially from China. A sustained decline in prices can erode operating margins; a recent $3.5 billion impairment on Canadian nickel assets illustrates the magnitude of price shocks.
High Risk
Dam Failure Liability
Two catastrophic dam collapses (Mariana 2015, Brumadinho 2019) caused loss of life, environmental damage, and legal liabilities. With 20 tailings dams classified as high‑risk, Vale faces ongoing scrutiny and potential future claims that could materially impact cash flows.
High Risk
Rising Net Debt
Vale’s net debt has increased, limiting investment capacity and resilience to market downturns. Weak free cash flow, partly from working‑capital build‑up, has driven debt growth, exposing the company to credit rating downgrades and higher financing costs.
Medium
ESG Disclosure & Litigation
The SEC has charged Vale with misleading statements about dam safety, and class‑action lawsuits over environmental damage continue. These legal disputes could result in significant settlements and reputational harm.
Medium
Environmental Impact & Credits
Vale is the largest carbon emitter among peers and relies on carbon credits rather than direct reductions. Accusations of deforestation, water pollution, and forced relocations risk regulatory penalties and investor backlash.
Lower
Lack of Controlling Shareholder
Without a controlling shareholder, quorum requirements and potential activist pressure may impede strategic decisions, potentially delaying capital allocation and operational initiatives.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why VALE Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Operational Excellence & Cost Control
Vale has consistently outperformed its 2025 guidance across all business segments, driving higher sales of iron ore, copper, and nickel. The company has achieved reductions in C1 cash costs for iron ore and lowered all‑in costs for copper and nickel, underscoring disciplined cost management.
Strategic Copper & Nickel Expansion
Vale is investing $3.3 billion to boost copper output to 500,000 metric tons annually by 2030, positioning it to capture demand from electromobility and the energy transition. The expansion is backed by a clear capital allocation plan and a target output that aligns with long‑term supply‑demand trends.
Strong Financial Performance
In the latest quarter, Vale reported revenue growth that surpassed analyst expectations, while maintaining a solid return on equity and a low debt‑to‑equity ratio. These metrics signal effective management and a resilient balance sheet.
Undervaluation & Shareholder Returns
Analysts note that Vale’s shares trade below historical averages, offering upside potential. The company has also been actively repurchasing participating debentures and is positioned to deliver high dividends and buybacks to shareholders.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
VALE Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$15.93
52W Range Position
78%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$8.97
+77.6% from the low
52-Week High
$17.94
-11.2% from the high
1 Month
-1.29%
3 Month
-2.14%
YTD
+20.1%
1 Year
+71.1%
3Y CAGR
+4.7%
5Y CAGR
-5.1%
10Y CAGR
+13.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
VALE vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
8.0x
vs 14.1x median
-44% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-0.4%
vs -1.2% median
+68% above peer median
Net Margin
7.1%
vs 6.8% median
+3% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VAL VALE Vale S.A. | $69.5B | 8.0x | -0.4% | 7.1% | Hold | +4.5% |
RIO RIO Rio Tinto Group | $200.6B | 12.3x | -9.3% | 19.4% | Hold | +1.2% |
BHP BHP BHP Group Limited | $201.2B | 15.7x | -12.1% | 20.1% | Hold | -9.8% |
CLF CLF Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. | $6.1B | — | +3.7% | -7.9% | Hold | +4.3% |
MT MT ArcelorMittal S.A. | $44.3B | 12.6x | -1.2% | 5.1% | Buy | -6.3% |
NUE NUE Nucor Corporation | $52.9B | 16.5x | +4.4% | 6.8% | Buy | -4.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
VALE Dividend and Capital Return
VALE returns 5.2% total yield, led by a 5.25% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
5.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
5.25%
Payout Ratio
1.4%
How VALE Splits Its Return
Div 5.25%
Dividend 5.25%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.84
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
-1.8%
5Y Div CAGR
24.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
4.4B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $1.39 | +37.4% | 0.0% | 6.4% |
| 2024 | $1.01 | -17.8% | 1.0% | 11.1% |
| 2023 | $1.23 | -16.3% | 3.9% | 12.0% |
| 2022 | $1.47 | -46.9% | 7.7% | 16.0% |
| 2021 | $2.76 | +504.4% | 7.9% | 27.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsVALE Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Vale S.A. (VALE) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Vale S.A. (VALE) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 37 analysts covering the stock, 16 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 17 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $17, implying +4.5% from the current price of $16. The bear case scenario is $15 and the bull case is $104.
02What is the VALE stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for VALE is $17 based on 37 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $20 (+22.4% from today), and the low-end target is $14 (-10.9%). The base case model target is $28.
03Is Vale S.A. (VALE) stock overvalued in 2026?
VALE trades at 8.0x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Vale S.A. (VALE) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for VALE in 2026 are: (1) Iron Ore Price Sensitivity — Vale's earnings are tightly linked to iron ore prices, which are driven by global demand, especially from China. (2) Dam Failure Liability — Two catastrophic dam collapses (Mariana 2015, Brumadinho 2019) caused loss of life, environmental damage, and legal liabilities. (3) Rising Net Debt — Vale’s net debt has increased, limiting investment capacity and resilience to market downturns. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Vale S.A.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates VALE will report consensus revenue of $39.4B (-0.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.96 (+47.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $39.0B in revenue.
06When does Vale S.A. (VALE) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for VALE is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Vale S.A. generate?
Vale S.A. (VALE) generated $3.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 8.5%. VALE returns capital to shareholders through dividends (5.2% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).