Capital intensity remains elevated, with the CapEx-to-OCF ratio peaking at 133.8% in 2025Q4, though the dividend remains supported by an OCF-to-dividend coverage ratio that reached 16.5x in 2024Q3.
| Metric | TTM | Dec'25 | Dec'24 | Dec'23 | Dec'22 | Dec'21 | Dec'20 | Dec'19 | Dec'18 | Dec'17 | Dec'16 | Dec'15 | Dec'14 | Dec'13 | Dec'12 |
|---|
| Cash from Operations | 4.67B | 4.07B | 4.56B | 5.45B | 485M | -206M | 3.34B | 2.74B | 1.47B | 1.39B | -157M | 237M | 444M | -270M | -237M |
| Operating CF Growth % | 40.02% | -10.8% | -16.32% | 1024.33% | 335.44% | -106.17% | 21.97% | 86% | 6.13% | 982.8% | -166.24% | -46.62% | 264.44% | -13.92% | - |
| Operating CF / Revenue % | 28.8% | 23.98% | 23.55% | 35.08% | 2.72% | -1.55% | 30.17% | 23.79% | 14.64% | 25.76% | -2.99% | 4.41% | 7.43% | -4.58% | -4.21% |
| Net Income | 2.24B | 944M | 2.81B | 1.49B | -1.21B | -1.26B | 624M | 926M | -56M | -254M | -819M | -4.68B | -6.23B | -2.2B | -2.95B |
| Depreciation & Amortization | 2.9B | 2.95B | 2.63B | 1.96B | 2.05B | 2.05B | 2.05B | 1.88B | 1.53B | 835M | 817M | 995M | 1.44B | 1.45B | 1.56B |
| Deferred Taxes | 321M | 136M | 612M | 621M | -231M | -528M | 225M | 318M | 17M | 205M | -52M | -883M | -2.35B | 0 | 42M |
| Other Non-Cash Items | 919M | 1.11B | -1.18B | -282M | 2.39B | 792M | 329M | -524M | 384M | 321M | 350M | 4.68B | 7.26B | 723M | 1.15B |
| Working Capital Changes | -848M | -1.18B | -416M | 1.59B | -2.58B | -1.3B | 46M | 93M | -480M | 279M | -411M | 126M | 328M | -248M | -46M |
| Capital Expenditures | -3.71B | -3.94B | -5.28B | -1.68B | -1.3B | -1.03B | -1.26B | -1.72B | -496M | -531M | -1.47B | -460M | -413M | -588M | -844M |
| CapEx / Revenue % | 4.74% | 23.22% | 27.23% | 10.78% | 7.29% | 7.75% | 11.38% | 14.93% | 1.17% | 1.15% | 27.86% | 2.29% | 1.29% | 9.97% | 14.98% |
| CapEx / D&A | 0.27x | 1.34x | 2.01x | 0.86x | 0.64x | 0.50x | 0.61x | 0.92x | 0.08x | 0.07x | 1.79x | 0.12x | 0.05x | 0.40x | 0.54x |
| CapEx Coverage (OCF/CapEx) | 6.08x | 1.03x | 0.86x | 3.25x | 0.37x | -0.20x | 2.65x | 1.59x | 12.47x | 22.35x | -0.11x | 1.93x | 5.77x | -0.46x | -0.28x |
| Cash from Investing | -3.97B | -4.4B | -5.28B | -2.15B | -1.24B | -1.15B | -1.57B | -1.72B | -101M | -541M | -1.47B | -650M | -458M | 16M | 120M |
| Acquisitions | 0 | -746M | -3.06B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -880M | 445M | -355M | -1.34B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Purchase of Investments | 290M | -5.18B | -2.24B | -624M | -693M | -505M | -455M | -453M | -274M | -272M | -245M | -418M | -331M | 0 | 0 |
| Sale of Investments | -286M | 5.15B | 2.22B | 601M | 670M | 483M | 433M | 431M | 252M | 252M | 226M | 401M | 314M | 0 | 0 |
| Other Investing | -4.75B | 315M | -110M | -446M | 85M | -98M | -291M | -726M | -406M | -290M | 103M | -510M | -364M | 604M | 964M |
| Cash from Financing | -616M | -74M | -1.6B | -294M | -80M | 2.27B | -1.8B | -1.24B | -2.72B | -201M | 1.06B | -30M | 1.11B | -175M | 1.17B |
| Dividends Paid | -492M | -498M | -478M | -463M | -453M | -290M | -266M | -243M | 0 | -1.5B | -992M | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dividend Payout Ratio % | - | 32.42% | 11.47% | 20.96% | - | - | 41.82% | 26.19% | - | - | 4.37% | - | - | - | - |
| Debt Issuance (Net) | -2M | 1000K | 1000K | 1000K | 1000K | 1000K | -1000K | -1000K | -1000K | -1000K | 1000K | -1000K | 1000K | 0 | 0 |
| Stock Issued | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 69M | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Share Repurchases | -35M | -1.03B | -1.27B | -1.25B | -1.95B | -471M | 0 | -656M | -763M | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other Financing | 403M | -722M | -1.39B | -401M | 425M | -334M | -172M | -86M | -224M | -10M | -183M | -9M | -91M | -175M | 1.17B |
| Net Change in Cash | 13M | -400M | -2.32B | 3.01B | -834M | 915M | -31M | -218M | -1.35B | 644M | -557M | -443M | 1.1B | -429M | 1.18B |
| Exchange Rate Effect | -68M | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 120M |
| Cash at Beginning | 816M | 1.22B | 3.54B | 525M | 1.36B | 444M | 475M | 693M | 2.05B | 843M | 1.4B | 1.84B | 746M | 1.18B | 0 |
| Cash at End | 634M | 822M | 1.22B | 3.54B | 525M | 1.36B | 444M | 475M | 693M | 1.49B | 843M | 1.4B | 1.84B | 746M | 1.18B |
| Free Cash Flow | 965M | 129M | -713M | 3.78B | -816M | -1.24B | 2.08B | 1.02B | 975M | 855M | -1.62B | -223M | 31M | -858M | -1.08B |
| FCF Growth % | -60.92% | 118.09% | -118.88% | 562.87% | 34.14% | -159.62% | 103.93% | 4.51% | 14.04% | 152.71% | -627.35% | -819.35% | 103.61% | 20.63% | - |
| FCF Margin % | 5.95% | 0.76% | -3.68% | 24.3% | -4.57% | -9.29% | 18.79% | 8.86% | 9.7% | 15.89% | -30.85% | -4.15% | 0.52% | -14.54% | -19.18% |
| FCF / Net Income % | 43.06% | 13.67% | -26.81% | 252.98% | 66.5% | 97.25% | 326.73% | 109.81% | -1805.56% | -336.61% | -7.15% | 4.77% | -0.5% | 39.05% | 36.67% |
Commodity and MTM volatility
As reported in recent financial statements, Vistra’s operating cash flow exhibits significant quarterly variance, ranging from $312 million to $1.7 billion, which suggests that the company’s cash generation is heavily tethered to wholesale market volatility rather than the predictable, regulated revenue streams typical of traditional utility peers.
The lack of consistent OCF suggests that Vistra remains highly sensitive to ERCOT market conditions and commodity price cycles. Investors should monitor whether the integration of nuclear assets provides the intended cash flow stability or if the retail segment continues to face pressure from wholesale price spikes.
Based on the provided data, Vistra’s CapEx-to-OCF ratio has fluctuated wildly, reaching a peak of 133.8% in 2025Q4, which indicates that the company is currently in a heavy investment phase to support its nuclear portfolio expansion and ongoing asset closure requirements across its generation fleet.
The high variability in capital deployment suggests that Vistra is prioritizing long-term asset positioning over short-term cash flow optimization. This level of spending warrants further investigation into whether these investments will yield the expected returns in a market increasingly focused on carbon-free baseload power.
According to recent SEC filings, Vistra maintains a flexible capital structure, evidenced by its ability to manage significant quarterly FCF swings, such as the $3.2 billion deficit in 2024Q1, while simultaneously executing share repurchases and maintaining a dividend policy that appears sustainable under current market conditions.
The company’s ability to navigate large cash flow deficits suggests that it retains sufficient access to capital markets to fund its strategic initiatives. However, the reliance on external financing to bridge these gaps may expose the company to interest rate risk if market conditions tighten unexpectedly.
As indicated by the OCF-to-dividend coverage ratio, which peaked at 16.5x in 2024Q3, Vistra’s dividend appears well-supported by operating cash flow, even during periods of significant capital expenditure, suggesting a disciplined approach to returning capital to shareholders despite the inherent volatility of the IPP business model.
While the coverage ratios appear robust, the underlying volatility of the cash flow suggests that the dividend safety is more dependent on successful hedging and market timing than on steady, regulated earnings. Investors should monitor whether future regulatory changes in ERCOT impact the consistency of these distributions.
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying VST stock.
Vistra Corp. (VST) generated $4.07B in net cash from operating activities in 2025. This reflects the cash generated directly from core business operations.
Vistra Corp. (VST) generated $129.0M in free cash flow in 2025. Free cash flow is the cash left over after capital expenditures, which can be used to pay dividends, repurchase shares, or pay down debt.
Vistra Corp. (VST) spent $3.94B on capital expenditures in 2025. CapEx represents the cash invested in physical assets like property, plant, and equipment to maintain or grow the business.
In 2025, Vistra Corp. (VST) returned $498.0M to shareholders via cash dividends and spent $1.03B on share repurchases. This shows the company's commitment to returning capital to its equity investors.