Upside case
Bull case
$139+63.0%
BJ would need investors to value it at roughly 31x earnings — about 12x more generous than today's 19x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
27
analysts
12 bullish · 1 bearish · 27 covering BJ
Strong Buy
0
Buy
12
Hold
14
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$112
+30.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$66 – $139
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
27
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
18.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.9B
BJ price targets
Three scenarios for where BJ stock could go
Current
~$85
Confidence
64 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $85
Bear
$66
Base
$105
Bull
$139
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$105+23.8%
At 23x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$66-22.0%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push BJ down roughly 22% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.
BJ · NYSEConsumer DefensiveDiscount StoresJanuary year-end
BJ's Wholesale Club operates a chain of membership-based warehouse clubs primarily on the U.S. East Coast, offering bulk groceries, general merchandise, and gasoline. It generates revenue through membership fees — which provide predictable recurring income — and merchandise sales, with gasoline representing a significant traffic driver and revenue stream. The company's competitive advantage lies in its membership model that creates customer loyalty and its strategic East Coast footprint that limits direct competition from larger national warehouse clubs.
Market Cap
$10.9B
Revenue TTM
$22.0B
Net Income TTM
$571M
Net Margin
2.6%
BJ Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+9.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.14/$1.09
Revenue
$5.4B/$5.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.16/$1.09
Revenue
$5.3B/$5.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.96/$0.93
Revenue
$5.6B/$5.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.10/$1.03
Revenue
$5.7B/$5.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.14/$1.09 | +4.6% | $5.4B/$5.5B | -1.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.16/$1.09 | +6.4% | $5.3B/$5.3B | +0.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.96/$0.93 | +2.8% | $5.6B/$5.5B | +0.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.10/$1.03 | +6.8% | $5.7B/$5.4B | +4.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$23.3B
+6.2% YoY
FY2
$24.9B
+6.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.69
+6.1% YoY
FY2
$5.07
+8.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$227M
FCF Margin: 1.0%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
BJ beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
BJ Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $21.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Product
97.7%
+4.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Product is the largest disclosed segment at 97.7% of FY 2025 revenue, up 4.6% YoY.
BJ Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $158 — implies +85.2% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
85.2%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
BJ
19.5x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
20% discount
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
BJ
19.5x
vs
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
In line with benchmark
vs BJ 5Y Avg P/E
Today
19.5x
vs
5Y Average
20.3x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
18.9x
S&P 500
18.8x
+0%
Consumer Defensive
14.2x
+33%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
19.5x
S&P 500
24.4x
-20%
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
+3%
5Y Avg
20.3x
-4%
PEG Ratio
2.54x
S&P 500
1.66x
+53%
Consumer Defensive
1.92x
+32%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
11.8x
S&P 500
15.2x
-22%
Consumer Defensive
11.1x
+7%
5Y Avg
13.6x
-13%
Price/FCF
32.9x
S&P 500
20.7x
+59%
Consumer Defensive
15.3x
+115%
5Y Avg
30.7x
+7%
Price/Sales
0.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
-84%
Consumer Defensive
0.9x
-42%
5Y Avg
0.5x
-5%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Consumer Defensive
3.06%
—
5Y Avg
0.00%
—
| Metric | BJ | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg BJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 18.9x | 18.8x | 14.2x+33% | — |
| Trailing PE | 19.5x | 24.4x-20% | 18.9x | 20.3x |
| PEG Ratio | 2.54x | 1.66x+53% | 1.92x+32% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.8x | 15.2x-22% | 11.1x | 13.6x-13% |
| Price/FCF | 32.9x | 20.7x+59% | 15.3x+115% | 30.7x |
| Price/Sales | 0.5x | 3.1x-84% | 0.9x-42% | 0.5x |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 3.06% | 0.00% |
BJ trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolBJ Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
BJ 13.5% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 2.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$22.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+5.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
18.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
3.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
2.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.42
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$227M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
1.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
13.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$46M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
11.3× FCF
~11.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
25.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.6%
Dividend
—
Buyback
2.6%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$287M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
128M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageBJ Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Finance & Corporate Risks
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings disclosed 51 risk factors, with the most risks concentrated in the 'Finance & Corporate' category, indicating potential financial instability or governance challenges.
Medium
Competitive Pressure
BJ's competes with traditional supermarkets and other warehouse clubs, and while it offers up to 25% savings, intense competition could erode margins or market share.
Lower
Market Volatility
Historical data shows BJ's stock experiences average drawdowns during systemic shocks, reflecting sensitivity to broader market volatility.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why BJ Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong membership model
BJ's Wholesale Club operates on a membership-based model, offering exclusive savings to members, which drives recurring revenue and customer loyalty.
Attractive valuation multiples
BJ's trailing and forward P/E ratios of 22.93 and 21.28 respectively suggest a reasonable valuation compared to growth potential.
Diverse product offerings
BJ's provides a wide range of products from groceries to electronics, catering to various consumer needs and enhancing revenue streams.
Bullish analyst coverage
There is notable bullish analyst sentiment and investment thesis coverage, indicating confidence in BJ's growth prospects.
Consumer defensive sector
Operating in the consumer defensive sector, BJ's is resilient to economic downturns, as demand for essential goods remains stable.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
BJ Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$85.22
52W Range Position
5%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$83.65
+1.9% from the low
52-Week High
$115.43
-26.2% from the high
1 Month
-12.17%
3 Month
-9.64%
YTD
-7.3%
1 Year
-21.3%
3Y CAGR
+11.6%
5Y CAGR
+13.4%
10Y CAGR
+14.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
BJ vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
18.9x
vs 15.6x median
+21% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.2%
vs +3.9% median
+58% above peer median
Net Margin
2.6%
vs 3.0% median
-14% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BJ BJ BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. | $10.9B | 18.9x | +6.2% | 2.6% | Hold | +30.8% |
COS COST Costco Wholesale Corporation | $421.9B | 46.4x | +5.8% | 3.0% | Buy | +16.7% |
WMT WMT Walmart Inc. | $934.0B | 40.3x | +5.0% | 3.2% | Buy | +19.0% |
TGT TGT Target Corporation | $59.4B | 15.6x | +2.5% | 3.4% | Hold | +0.4% |
KR KR The Kroger Co. | $34.9B | 10.8x | +1.9% | 0.7% | Buy | +31.2% |
ACI ACI Albertsons Companies, Inc. | $6.9B | 5.9x | +3.9% | 1.1% | Buy | +45.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
BJ Dividend and Capital Return
BJ returns 2.6% annually — null% through dividends and 2.6% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
2.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.6%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$287M
Estimated Shares Retired
3M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
128M
At 2.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsBJ Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 27 analysts covering the stock, 12 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 14 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $112, implying +30.8% from the current price of $85. The bear case scenario is $66 and the bull case is $139.
02What is the BJ stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for BJ is $112 based on 27 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $114 (+33.8% from today), and the low-end target is $109 (+27.9%). The base case model target is $105.
03Is BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ) stock overvalued in 2026?
BJ trades at 18.9x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for BJ in 2026 are: (1) Finance & Corporate Risks — BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings disclosed 51 risk factors, with the most risks concentrated in the 'Finance & Corporate' category, indicating potential financial instability or governance challenges. (2) Competitive Pressure — BJ's competes with traditional supermarkets and other warehouse clubs, and while it offers up to 25% savings, intense competition could erode margins or market share. (3) Market Volatility — Historical data shows BJ's stock experiences average drawdowns during systemic shocks, reflecting sensitivity to broader market volatility. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates BJ will report consensus revenue of $23.3B (+6.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.69 (+6.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $24.9B in revenue.
06When does BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for BJ is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. generate?
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ) generated $227M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 1.0%. BJ returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($287M TTM).