Upside case
Bull case
$130+37.7%
BJ would need investors to value it at roughly 29x earnings — about 8x more generous than today's 21x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
27
analysts
12 bullish · 1 bearish · 27 covering BJ
Strong Buy
0
Buy
12
Hold
14
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$105
+11.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$43 – $130
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
27
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
20.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $14.1B
BJ price targets
Three scenarios for where BJ stock could go
Current
~$94
Confidence
74 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $94
Bear
$43
Base
$106
Bull
$130
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$106+12.2%
At 23x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$43-54.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 11x multiple contraction could push BJ down roughly 55% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.
BJ · NYSEConsumer DefensiveDiscount StoresJanuary year-end
BJ's Wholesale Club operates a chain of membership-based warehouse clubs primarily on the U.S. East Coast, offering bulk groceries, general merchandise, and gasoline. It generates revenue through membership fees — which provide predictable recurring income — and merchandise sales, with gasoline representing a significant traffic driver and revenue stream. The company's competitive advantage lies in its membership model that creates customer loyalty and its strategic East Coast footprint that limits direct competition from larger national warehouse clubs.
Market Cap
$14.1B
Revenue TTM
$21.5B
Net Income TTM
$578M
Net Margin
2.7%
BJ Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+8.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.14/$0.92
Revenue
$5.2B/$5.2B
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.14/$1.09
Revenue
$5.4B/$5.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.16/$1.09
Revenue
$5.3B/$5.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.96/$0.93
Revenue
$5.6B/$5.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.14/$0.92 | +23.4% | $5.2B/$5.2B | -0.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.14/$1.09 | +4.6% | $5.4B/$5.5B | -1.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.16/$1.09 | +6.4% | $5.3B/$5.3B | +0.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.96/$0.93 | +2.8% | $5.6B/$5.5B | +0.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$22.6B
+5.3% YoY
FY2
$23.8B
+5.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.58
+3.9% YoY
FY2
$4.91
+7.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$337M
FCF Margin: 1.6%
Next Earnings
May 21, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.05
Expected Revenue
$5.4B
BJ beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
BJ Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $20.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Product
97.8%
+2.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Product is the largest disclosed segment at 97.8% of FY 2024 revenue, up 2.5% YoY.
BJ Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $68 — implies -27.3% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
27.3%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
BJ
21.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
14% discount
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
BJ
21.5x
vs
Consumer Defensive
19.1x
+13% premium
vs BJ 5Y Avg P/E
Today
21.5x
vs
5Y Average
20.3x
+6% premium
Forward PE
20.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
+9%
Consumer Defensive
15.0x
+39%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
21.5x
S&P 500
25.1x
-14%
Consumer Defensive
19.1x
+13%
5Y Avg
20.3x
+6%
PEG Ratio
2.82x
S&P 500
1.72x
+64%
Consumer Defensive
1.87x
+51%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
-3%
Consumer Defensive
11.5x
+28%
5Y Avg
13.6x
+8%
Price/FCF
42.7x
S&P 500
21.1x
+102%
Consumer Defensive
14.9x
+186%
5Y Avg
30.7x
+39%
Price/Sales
0.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
-79%
Consumer Defensive
0.8x
-20%
5Y Avg
0.5x
+23%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Consumer Defensive
2.79%
—
5Y Avg
0.00%
—
| Metric | BJ | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg BJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 20.9x | 19.1x | 15.0x+39% | — |
| Trailing PE | 21.5x | 25.1x-14% | 19.1x+13% | 20.3x |
| PEG Ratio | 2.82x | 1.72x+64% | 1.87x+51% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.7x | 15.2x | 11.5x+28% | 13.6x |
| Price/FCF | 42.7x | 21.1x+102% | 14.9x+186% | 30.7x+39% |
| Price/Sales | 0.7x | 3.1x-79% | 0.8x-20% | 0.5x+23% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 2.79% | 0.00% |
BJ trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolBJ Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
BJ 13.5% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 2.0% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$21.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+4.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
18.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
3.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
2.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.41
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$337M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
1.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
13.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$46M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
7.6× FCF
~7.6 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
26.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
2.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$287M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
132M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageBJ Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Macroeconomic Headwinds
BJ's performance is closely tied to the overall economy, with rising interest rates and inflation significantly affecting customer purchasing power. Concerns around food inflation and general cost pressures could impact merchandise margins and profitability.
High Risk
Competitive Landscape Risks
BJ's operates in a highly competitive market with established players like Costco and Sam's Club. The company's expansion into new markets, particularly Texas, introduces additional execution and margin risks.
High Risk
Valuation Concerns
BJ's stock has appreciated significantly, leading some analysts to believe it is trading above its fair value. This premium valuation leaves little room for error, especially in light of increased competition and underperformance in comparable store sales.
Medium
Expansion Challenges
Limited 'white space' in BJ's core regions makes expansion into new territories more challenging. The company's rollouts into Western markets and the Dallas-Fort Worth area are considered risky due to increased competition.
Medium
Earnings Guidance Risks
BJ's initial 2026 earnings per share (EPS) guidance is below street estimates, contributing to a negative outlook among analysts. This, combined with competitive pressures, raises concerns about future growth.
Lower
Cybersecurity Risks
BJ's acknowledges cybersecurity risks, with its Chief Information Officer responsible for information technology, privacy, and data security. Any breaches could lead to significant reputational damage and financial losses.
Lower
Private Label Dependence
BJ's relies on private label products for a significant portion of its sales and margins. Changes in performance or sourcing of these products could adversely affect the company's results.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why BJ Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Membership Growth and Retention
The membership model provides a stable source of recurring revenue, with high renewal rates indicating strong customer loyalty. This recurring income is crucial for sustaining profitability.
Club Expansion Plans
BJ's plans to open 25-30 new clubs over the next two years, focusing on high-growth suburban and Sunbelt markets. This expansion is expected to significantly drive top-line revenue growth and leverage fixed costs, leading to potential margin expansion.
Strong Value Proposition
BJ's offers substantial savings on groceries compared to traditional supermarkets, making it an attractive option for consumers, especially in the current economic climate. This value proposition is likely to enhance customer acquisition and retention.
Operational Improvements
Investments in new distribution center capacity and ongoing club openings are anticipated to unlock operational savings and enhance inventory flow. These improvements are expected to contribute positively to overall efficiency and profitability.
Positive Financial Momentum
Despite challenges in the retail sector, BJ's has demonstrated strong momentum, with expectations for improved general merchandise sales. Analysts project significant revenue and earnings growth by 2028, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term performance.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
BJ Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$94.32
52W Range Position
23%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$86.68
+8.8% from the low
52-Week High
$120.33
-21.6% from the high
1 Month
-1.33%
3 Month
-5.00%
YTD
+2.6%
1 Year
-21.0%
3Y CAGR
+8.0%
5Y CAGR
+15.6%
10Y CAGR
+15.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
BJ vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
20.9x
vs 16.1x median
+30% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.3%
vs +2.2% median
+137% above peer median
Net Margin
2.7%
vs 3.0% median
-10% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BJ BJ BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. | $14.1B | 20.9x | +5.3% | 2.7% | Hold | +11.0% |
COS COST Costco Wholesale Corporation | $450.5B | 49.7x | +5.7% | 3.0% | Buy | +5.3% |
WMT WMT Walmart Inc. | $1.04T | 44.9x | +5.9% | 3.3% | Buy | +4.8% |
TGT TGT Target Corporation | $58.7B | 16.1x | +0.1% | 3.8% | Hold | -10.5% |
KR KR The Kroger Co. | $42.4B | 12.8x | +0.8% | 0.7% | Buy | +11.7% |
ACI ACI Albertsons Companies, Inc. | $8.3B | 7.1x | +2.2% | 1.1% | Buy | +21.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
BJ Dividend and Capital Return
BJ returns 2.0% annually — null% through dividends and 2.0% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
2.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$287M
Estimated Shares Retired
3M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
132M
At 2.3%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsBJ Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 27 analysts covering the stock, 12 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 14 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $105, implying +11.0% from the current price of $94. The bear case scenario is $43 and the bull case is $130.
02What is the BJ stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for BJ is $105 based on 27 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $114 (+20.9% from today), and the low-end target is $95 (+0.7%). The base case model target is $106.
03Is BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ) stock overvalued in 2026?
BJ trades at 20.9x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for BJ in 2026 are: (1) Macroeconomic Headwinds — BJ's performance is closely tied to the overall economy, with rising interest rates and inflation significantly affecting customer purchasing power. (2) Competitive Landscape Risks — BJ's operates in a highly competitive market with established players like Costco and Sam's Club. (3) Valuation Concerns — BJ's stock has appreciated significantly, leading some analysts to believe it is trading above its fair value. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates BJ will report consensus revenue of $22.6B (+5.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.58 (+3.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $23.8B in revenue.
06When does BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ) report its next earnings?
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-21. Consensus expects EPS of $1.05 and revenue of $5.4B. Over recent quarters, BJ has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. generate?
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ) generated $337M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 1.6%. BJ returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($287M TTM).