Upside case
Bull case
$1289+35.5%
COST would need investors to value it at roughly 63x earnings — about 16x more generous than today's 46x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
58
analysts
38 bullish · 1 bearish · 58 covering COST
Strong Buy
0
Buy
38
Hold
19
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$1110
+16.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$616 – $1289
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
58
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
46.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $421.9B
COST price targets
Three scenarios for where COST stock could go
Current
~$951
Confidence
65 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $951
Bear
$616
Base
$978
Bull
$1289
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$978+2.8%
This is close to how the market is already pricing COST — at roughly 48x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$616-35.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 16x multiple contraction could push COST down roughly 35% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Costco Wholesale Corporation
COST · NASDAQConsumer DefensiveDiscount StoresAugust year-end
Costco operates a global chain of membership warehouse clubs that sell a wide range of merchandise at low prices to members. It generates revenue primarily from membership fees — which account for roughly 70% of operating income — and merchandise sales, with a razor-thin markup on goods. The company's moat lies in its extreme operational efficiency, massive buying power, and fiercely loyal membership base that renews at over 90% rates.
Market Cap
$421.9B
Revenue TTM
$293.6B
Net Income TTM
$8.8B
Net Margin
3.0%
COST Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+1.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$5.87/$5.80
Revenue
$86.2B/$86.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$4.34/$4.27
Revenue
$67.3B/$67.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$4.58/$4.55
Revenue
$69.6B/$69.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$4.93/$4.94
Revenue
$70.5B/$70.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $5.87/$5.80 | +1.2% | $86.2B/$86.0B | +0.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.34/$4.27 | +1.6% | $67.3B/$67.1B | +0.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.58/$4.55 | +0.7% | $69.6B/$69.3B | +0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.93/$4.94 | -0.2% | $70.5B/$70.1B | +0.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$310.5B
+5.8% YoY
FY2
$328.6B
+5.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$20.45
+2.9% YoY
FY2
$21.74
+6.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$8.8B
FCF Margin: 3.0%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
COST beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
COST Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $275.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Food and Sundries
39.8%
+8.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
72.7%
+8.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Food and Sundries is the largest disclosed segment at 39.8% of FY 2025 revenue, up 8.0% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 72.7%, up 8.6% YoY.
COST Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $465 — implies -51.1% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
51.1%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
COST
52.2x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+114% premium
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
COST
52.2x
vs
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
+176% premium
vs COST 5Y Avg P/E
Today
52.2x
vs
5Y Average
44.9x
+16% premium
Forward PE
46.4x
S&P 500
18.8x
+147%
Consumer Defensive
14.2x
+227%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
52.2x
S&P 500
24.4x
+114%
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
+176%
5Y Avg
44.9x
+16%
PEG Ratio
3.46x
S&P 500
1.66x
+109%
Consumer Defensive
1.92x
+80%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
32.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
+114%
Consumer Defensive
11.1x
+193%
5Y Avg
27.5x
+18%
Price/FCF
53.8x
S&P 500
20.7x
+160%
Consumer Defensive
15.3x
+252%
5Y Avg
50.8x
+6%
Price/Sales
1.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
-50%
Consumer Defensive
0.9x
+74%
5Y Avg
1.2x
+25%
Dividend Yield
0.52%
S&P 500
1.91%
-73%
Consumer Defensive
3.06%
-83%
5Y Avg
1.36%
-62%
| Metric | COST | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg COST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 46.4x | 18.8x+147% | 14.2x+227% | — |
| Trailing PE | 52.2x | 24.4x+114% | 18.9x+176% | 44.9x+16% |
| PEG Ratio | 3.46x | 1.66x+109% | 1.92x+80% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 32.5x | 15.2x+114% | 11.1x+193% | 27.5x+18% |
| Price/FCF | 53.8x | 20.7x+160% | 15.3x+252% | 50.8x |
| Price/Sales | 1.5x | 3.1x-50% | 0.9x+74% | 1.2x+25% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.52% | 1.91% | 3.06% | 1.36% |
COST trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCOST Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
COST 34.5% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$293.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+9.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
12.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
3.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
3.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$19.89
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$8.8B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
3.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
34.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
10.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$14.2B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$6.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
28.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.7%
Dividend
0.5%
Buyback
0.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$903M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.91
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
27.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
443M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCOST Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Elevated valuation risk
Costco's stock is trading at historically elevated levels, with analysts noting a 52x P/E ratio, raising concerns over sustainability.
Medium
Market pullback vulnerability
Even strong retailers like Costco are not immune to broader market downturns, with potential for sharp declines erasing gains.
Medium
Margin pressure
Costco operates on razor-thin margins, making it susceptible to cost inflation or competitive pricing pressures.
Lower
Near-term stock volatility
The stock has shown choppy performance recently, with a 5.3% decline over 7 days, indicating short-term uncertainty.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why COST Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Strong membership growth
Costco's revenue climbed over 11% due to robust digital and membership growth, indicating a loyal customer base.
Industry-leading growth
Costco sustains industry-leading growth and solid margins despite macroeconomic headwinds and shifting consumer habits.
Market dominance
Costco is the third-largest retailer globally and the largest retailer of beef, poultry, organic produce, and wine, showcasing its market dominance.
High fair value estimate
The bull case suggests a fair value of about $1,047.90 per share, indicating potential upside from current levels.
Bulk savings appeal
Costco offers top-quality grocery and household items with bulk savings, attracting cost-conscious consumers.
Diverse product offerings
Costco provides a wide range of products, from electronics to jewellery, enhancing its revenue streams.
Strong financial metrics
Costco's trailing and forward P/E ratios of 51.97 and 47.85 reflect strong investor confidence and earnings potential.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
COST Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$951.45
52W Range Position
42%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$846.80
+12.4% from the low
52-Week High
$1096.50
-13.2% from the high
1 Month
-11.61%
3 Month
-2.91%
YTD
+11.3%
1 Year
-2.4%
3Y CAGR
+22.3%
5Y CAGR
+20.1%
10Y CAGR
+19.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
COST vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
46.4x
vs 15.6x median
+197% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.8%
vs +3.9% median
+46% above peer median
Net Margin
3.0%
vs 2.6% median
+16% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
COS COST Costco Wholesale Corporation | $421.9B | 46.4x | +5.8% | 3.0% | Buy | +16.7% |
WMT WMT Walmart Inc. | $934.0B | 40.3x | +5.0% | 3.2% | Buy | +19.0% |
TGT TGT Target Corporation | $59.4B | 15.6x | +2.5% | 3.4% | Hold | +0.4% |
BJ BJ BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. | $10.9B | 18.9x | +6.2% | 2.6% | Hold | +30.8% |
KR KR The Kroger Co. | $34.9B | 10.8x | +1.9% | 0.7% | Buy | +31.2% |
ACI ACI Albertsons Companies, Inc. | $6.9B | 5.9x | +3.9% | 1.1% | Buy | +45.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
COST Dividend and Capital Return
COST returns 0.7% total yield, led by a 0.52% dividend, raised 22 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.2%
Dividend Yield
0.52%
Payout Ratio
27.0%
How COST Splits Its Return
Div 0.52%
Buyback 0.2%
Dividend 0.52%Buybacks 0.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.91
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
22Y
3Y Div CAGR
13.2%
5Y Div CAGR
-16.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$903M
Estimated Shares Retired
949.1K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
443M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.77 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $5.06 | +12.4% | 0.2% | 0.7% |
| 2024 | $4.50 | -76.3% | 0.2% | 2.5% |
| 2023 | $18.96 | +443.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% |
| 2022 | $3.49 | +13.7% | 0.2% | 0.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsCOST Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 58 analysts covering the stock, 38 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 19 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $1110, implying +16.7% from the current price of $951. The bear case scenario is $616 and the bull case is $1289.
02What is the COST stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for COST is $1110 based on 58 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $1275 (+34.0% from today), and the low-end target is $1000 (+5.1%). The base case model target is $978.
03Is Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) stock overvalued in 2026?
COST trades at 46.4x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for COST in 2026 are: (1) Elevated valuation risk — Costco's stock is trading at historically elevated levels, with analysts noting a 52x P/E ratio, raising concerns over sustainability. (2) Market pullback vulnerability — Even strong retailers like Costco are not immune to broader market downturns, with potential for sharp declines erasing gains. (3) Margin pressure — Costco operates on razor-thin margins, making it susceptible to cost inflation or competitive pricing pressures. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Costco Wholesale Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates COST will report consensus revenue of $310.5B (+5.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $20.45 (+2.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $328.6B in revenue.
06When does Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for COST is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Costco Wholesale Corporation generate?
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) generated $8.8B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 3.0%. COST returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.5% yield) and share repurchases ($903M TTM).