Upside case
Bull case
$1382+35.9%
COST would need investors to value it at roughly 68x earnings — about 18x more generous than today's 50x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
58
analysts
38 bullish · 1 bearish · 58 covering COST
Strong Buy
0
Buy
38
Hold
19
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$1070
+5.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$865 – $1382
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
58
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
49.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $450.5B
COST price targets
Three scenarios for where COST stock could go
Current
~$1016
Confidence
86 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $1016
Bear
$865
Base
$1262
Bull
$1382
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$1262+24.1%
At 62x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$865-14.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 7x multiple contraction could push COST down roughly 15% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Costco Wholesale Corporation
COST · NASDAQConsumer DefensiveDiscount StoresAugust year-end
Costco operates a global chain of membership warehouse clubs that sell a wide range of merchandise at low prices to members. It generates revenue primarily from membership fees — which account for roughly 70% of operating income — and merchandise sales, with a razor-thin markup on goods. The company's moat lies in its extreme operational efficiency, massive buying power, and fiercely loyal membership base that renews at over 90% rates.
Market Cap
$450.5B
Revenue TTM
$286.3B
Net Income TTM
$8.5B
Net Margin
3.0%
COST Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+0.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$4.28/$4.24
Revenue
$63.2B/$63.1B
Q3 2025
EPS
$5.87/$5.80
Revenue
$86.2B/$86.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$4.34/$4.27
Revenue
$67.3B/$67.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$4.58/$4.55
Revenue
$69.6B/$69.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $4.28/$4.24 | +0.9% | $63.2B/$63.1B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.87/$5.80 | +1.2% | $86.2B/$86.0B | +0.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.34/$4.27 | +1.6% | $67.3B/$67.1B | +0.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.58/$4.55 | +0.7% | $69.6B/$69.3B | +0.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$302.7B
+5.7% YoY
FY2
$328.6B
+8.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$20.60
+7.1% YoY
FY2
$22.60
+9.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$9.1B
FCF Margin: 3.2%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
COST beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
COST Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $275.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Food and Sundries
39.8%
+8.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Other International Operations
100.0%
+8.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Food and Sundries is the largest disclosed segment at 39.8% of FY 2025 revenue, up 8.0% YoY.
Other International Operations is the largest reported region at 100.0%, up 8.0% YoY.
COST Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $499 — implies -50.6% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
50.6%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
COST
55.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+122% premium
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
COST
55.8x
vs
Consumer Defensive
19.1x
+193% premium
vs COST 5Y Avg P/E
Today
55.8x
vs
5Y Average
44.9x
+24% premium
Forward PE
49.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
+161%
Consumer Defensive
15.0x
+232%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
55.8x
S&P 500
25.1x
+122%
Consumer Defensive
19.1x
+193%
5Y Avg
44.9x
+24%
PEG Ratio
3.70x
S&P 500
1.72x
+116%
Consumer Defensive
1.87x
+98%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
34.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
+128%
Consumer Defensive
11.5x
+202%
5Y Avg
27.5x
+26%
Price/FCF
57.5x
S&P 500
21.1x
+173%
Consumer Defensive
14.9x
+285%
5Y Avg
50.8x
+13%
Price/Sales
1.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-48%
Consumer Defensive
0.8x
+98%
5Y Avg
1.2x
+33%
Dividend Yield
0.48%
S&P 500
1.87%
-74%
Consumer Defensive
2.79%
-83%
5Y Avg
1.36%
-65%
| Metric | COST | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg COST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 49.7x | 19.1x+161% | 15.0x+232% | — |
| Trailing PE | 55.8x | 25.1x+122% | 19.1x+193% | 44.9x+24% |
| PEG Ratio | 3.70x | 1.72x+116% | 1.87x+98% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 34.7x | 15.2x+128% | 11.5x+202% | 27.5x+26% |
| Price/FCF | 57.5x | 21.1x+173% | 14.9x+285% | 50.8x+13% |
| Price/Sales | 1.6x | 3.1x-48% | 0.8x+98% | 1.2x+33% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.48% | 1.87% | 2.79% | 1.36% |
COST trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCOST Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
COST 34.5% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$286.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+8.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
12.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
3.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
3.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$19.23
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$9.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
3.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
34.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
10.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$14.2B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$6.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
28.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.7%
Dividend
0.5%
Buyback
0.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$903M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.91
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
27.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
445M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCOST Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Macroeconomic Conditions
General economic downturns, inflation, rising energy and gasoline costs, unemployment, and changes in consumer debt levels can adversely affect consumer spending and demand for Costco's products, potentially reducing sales and margins.
High Risk
Supply Chain Disruptions
Costco relies on a global supply chain; delays at ports, factory disruptions, shipping shortages, geopolitical conflicts, natural disasters, labor issues, pandemics, or supplier financial difficulties can lead to out-of-stocks, increased costs, and missed sales.
Medium
Membership Renewal Rates
A sustained deterioration in membership renewal rates could impact high‑margin membership fee income, as membership renewals are a core revenue driver for Costco.
Medium
Tariff & Trade Policies
Geopolitical tariff and sourcing pressures can increase import costs and potentially compress gross margins, affecting profitability.
Lower
Regulatory & Legal Compliance
Failure to comply with federal, state, regional, local, and international laws and regulations can lead to fines, reputational damage, and operational disruptions.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why COST Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Membership Loyalty Drives Recurring Revenue
Costco’s membership-based model generates a stable recurring revenue stream, supported by high renewal rates that keep the member base growing. The model also delivers strong returns on invested capital, reinforcing the company’s financial resilience.
Cost Leadership Fuels Customer Trust
By focusing on cost leadership, Costco offers significant value to shoppers, which deepens customer trust and loyalty. This strategy attracts higher traffic and larger basket sizes, even in ancillary categories such as gas and pharmacies.
Strong Cash Flow Enables Shareholder Returns
Operating cash flow consistently exceeds net income, and after reinvestment the company generates significant free cash flow. This cash is deployed strategically through dividends and share repurchases, enhancing shareholder value.
Strategic Expansion into Healthcare
Costco is expanding its global footprint by opening new warehouses and investing in digital sales channels. A key catalyst is its partnership with Novo Nordisk to sell GLP‑1 drugs, which strengthens its healthcare offerings and attracts more members.
Robust Sales and Margin Growth
Recent reports show strong net sales growth, with comparable sales and e-commerce expanding across various markets. Margin expansion is also occurring, with improvements in gross margin and controlled operating expenses.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
COST Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$1016.42
52W Range Position
77%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$846.80
+20.0% from the low
52-Week High
$1067.08
-4.7% from the high
1 Month
-0.21%
3 Month
+2.74%
YTD
+18.9%
1 Year
+0.2%
3Y CAGR
+26.8%
5Y CAGR
+22.2%
10Y CAGR
+21.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
COST vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
49.7x
vs 16.1x median
+209% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.7%
vs +2.2% median
+156% above peer median
Net Margin
3.0%
vs 2.7% median
+11% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
COS COST Costco Wholesale Corporation | $450.5B | 49.7x | +5.7% | 3.0% | Buy | +5.3% |
WMT WMT Walmart Inc. | $1.04T | 44.9x | +5.9% | 3.3% | Buy | +4.8% |
TGT TGT Target Corporation | $58.7B | 16.1x | +0.1% | 3.8% | Hold | -10.5% |
BJ BJ BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. | $14.1B | 20.9x | +5.3% | 2.7% | Hold | +11.0% |
KR KR The Kroger Co. | $42.4B | 12.8x | +0.8% | 0.7% | Buy | +11.7% |
ACI ACI Albertsons Companies, Inc. | $8.3B | 7.1x | +2.2% | 1.1% | Buy | +21.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
COST Dividend and Capital Return
COST returns 0.7% total yield, led by a 0.48% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.2%
Dividend Yield
0.48%
Payout Ratio
27.0%
How COST Splits Its Return
Div 0.48%
Buyback 0.2%
Dividend 0.48%Buybacks 0.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.91
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
13.2%
5Y Div CAGR
-16.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$903M
Estimated Shares Retired
888.4K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
445M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.77 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $5.06 | +12.4% | 0.2% | 0.7% |
| 2024 | $4.50 | -76.3% | 0.2% | 2.5% |
| 2023 | $18.96 | +443.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% |
| 2022 | $3.49 | +13.7% | 0.2% | 0.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsCOST Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 58 analysts covering the stock, 38 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 19 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $1070, implying +5.3% from the current price of $1016. The bear case scenario is $865 and the bull case is $1382.
02What is the COST stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for COST is $1070 based on 58 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $1175 (+15.6% from today), and the low-end target is $769 (-24.3%). The base case model target is $1262.
03Is Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) stock overvalued in 2026?
COST trades at 49.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for COST in 2026 are: (1) Macroeconomic Conditions — General economic downturns, inflation, rising energy and gasoline costs, unemployment, and changes in consumer debt levels can adversely affect consumer spending and demand for Costco's products, potentially reducing sales and margins. (2) Supply Chain Disruptions — Costco relies on a global supply chain; delays at ports, factory disruptions, shipping shortages, geopolitical conflicts, natural disasters, labor issues, pandemics, or supplier financial difficulties can lead to out-of-stocks, increased costs, and missed sales. (3) Membership Renewal Rates — A sustained deterioration in membership renewal rates could impact high‑margin membership fee income, as membership renewals are a core revenue driver for Costco. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Costco Wholesale Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates COST will report consensus revenue of $302.7B (+5.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $20.60 (+7.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $328.6B in revenue.
06When does Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for COST is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Costco Wholesale Corporation generate?
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) generated $9.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 3.2%. COST returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.5% yield) and share repurchases ($903M TTM).