Upside case
Bull case
$260+39.4%
WSM would need investors to value it at roughly 30x earnings — about 8x more generous than today's 21x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
56
analysts
16 bullish · 6 bearish · 56 covering WSM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
16
Hold
34
Sell
6
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$200
+7.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$85 – $260
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
56
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
21.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $23.0B
WSM price targets
Three scenarios for where WSM stock could go
Current
~$186
Confidence
62 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $186
Bear
$85
Base
$201
Bull
$260
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$201+7.7%
This is close to how the market is already pricing WSM — at roughly 23x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$85-54.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 12x multiple contraction could push WSM down roughly 55% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Williams-Sonoma, Inc.
WSM · NYSEConsumer CyclicalSpecialty RetailFebruary year-end
Williams-Sonoma is a premium home furnishings and kitchenware retailer operating multiple lifestyle brands including Pottery Barn, West Elm, and its namesake Williams Sonoma stores. It generates revenue primarily through direct-to-consumer sales — about 65% from e-commerce and 35% from retail stores — across its portfolio of brands that each target different home decor segments. The company's key advantage is its strong multi-brand portfolio with distinct brand identities, a vertically integrated supply chain that allows for proprietary product development, and a loyal customer base cultivated through its iconic catalogs and digital marketing.
Market Cap
$23.0B
Revenue TTM
$7.8B
Net Income TTM
$1.1B
Net Margin
13.9%
WSM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+6.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.85/$1.76
Revenue
$1.7B/$1.7B
Q3 2025
EPS
$2.00/$1.81
Revenue
$1.8B/$1.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.96/$1.88
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.04/$2.90
Revenue
$2.4B/$2.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.85/$1.76 | +5.1% | $1.7B/$1.7B | +3.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.00/$1.81 | +10.5% | $1.8B/$1.8B | +0.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.96/$1.88 | +4.3% | $1.9B/$1.9B | +0.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.04/$2.90 | +4.8% | $2.4B/$2.4B | -2.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$7.8B
+0.4% YoY
FY2
$7.9B
+1.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$9.02
+0.3% YoY
FY2
$9.52
+5.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.1B
FCF Margin: 13.6%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
WSM beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
WSM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $7.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Pottery Barn Segment
39.4%
-5.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Pottery Barn Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 39.4% of FY 2024 revenue, down 5.2% YoY.
WSM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $171 — implies -4.8% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
4.8%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
WSM
21.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
16% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
WSM
21.1x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+8% premium
vs WSM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
21.1x
vs
5Y Average
15.9x
+32% premium
Forward PE
21.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
+12%
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
+41%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
21.1x
S&P 500
25.2x
-16%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+8%
5Y Avg
15.9x
+32%
PEG Ratio
1.36x
S&P 500
1.75x
-22%
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
+43%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.2x
S&P 500
15.3x
-7%
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
+25%
5Y Avg
10.9x
+31%
Price/FCF
21.8x
S&P 500
21.3x
+2%
Consumer Cyclical
15.0x
+45%
5Y Avg
16.0x
+36%
Price/Sales
2.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-6%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+313%
5Y Avg
2.2x
+35%
Dividend Yield
1.38%
S&P 500
1.88%
-27%
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
-36%
5Y Avg
1.60%
-14%
| Metric | WSM | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg WSM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 21.4x | 19.1x+12% | 15.2x+41% | — |
| Trailing PE | 21.1x | 25.2x-16% | 19.6x | 15.9x+32% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.36x | 1.75x-22% | 0.95x+43% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.2x | 15.3x | 11.4x+25% | 10.9x+31% |
| Price/FCF | 21.8x | 21.3x | 15.0x+45% | 16.0x+36% |
| Price/Sales | 2.9x | 3.1x | 0.7x+313% | 2.2x+35% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.38% | 1.88% | 2.15% | 1.60% |
WSM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolWSM Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
WSM generates $1.1B in free cash flow at a 13.6% margin — 44.3% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 5.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$7.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+1.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
46.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
18.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
13.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$9.00
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
13.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
44.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
20.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.0B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$437M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.4× FCF
~0.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
51.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.1%
Dividend
1.4%
Buyback
3.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$854M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.57
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
29.1%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
123M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageWSM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Macroeconomic Risks
Persistent inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's target, increasing costs for Williams-Sonoma and potentially reducing consumer purchasing power. Additionally, geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have led to higher oil costs, contributing to broader inflationary pressures.
High Risk
Economic Uncertainty
As a retailer of discretionary goods, Williams-Sonoma is highly susceptible to economic downturns. Historical data shows that the company's earnings significantly decline during recessionary periods, as consumers tend to forgo non-essential purchases.
Medium
Intense Competition
The home furnishing retail industry is highly competitive, with Williams-Sonoma facing pressure from both domestic and international competitors. This intense competition can impact market share and pricing strategies.
Medium
Housing Market Volatility
Weakness in the U.S. housing market, characterized by sluggish home sales and elevated median prices, can negatively affect demand for home furnishings. A decline in housing market activity directly correlates with reduced consumer spending in this sector.
Medium
E-commerce and Technology
While Williams-Sonoma has a strong online presence, it must continuously innovate and invest in technology to remain competitive. Unsuccessful technology initiatives could lead to increased costs or fail to drive sales and customer acquisition.
Lower
Fluctuating Quarterly Results
Various factors, including changes in economic conditions and the timing of holiday selling seasons, can cause quarterly operating results to fluctuate. This volatility can lead to stock price fluctuations, impacting investor sentiment.
Lower
Debt and Financing Costs
Although Williams-Sonoma has historically maintained a strong financial position with low debt, changes in market interest rates can influence financing costs. Increased financing costs could reduce earnings and cash flows.
Lower
Guidance and Market Expectations
The company's stock price can be volatile if its operating or financial results do not meet its provided guidance or investor expectations. This volatility can create uncertainty among investors and affect stock performance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why WSM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Brand and Market Position
Williams-Sonoma is recognized as a leading digital-first, design-led, and sustainable home retailer. Its focus on higher-income individuals, who are less sensitive to inflation, contributes to resilient demand.
Strategic Growth Initiatives
The company is actively investing in new opportunities, including its business-to-business (B2B) and marketplace focuses. Plans for future growth through brand extensions and expansions are also seen as positive catalysts.
Financial Strength and Efficiency
Williams-Sonoma boasts a 'fortress balance sheet' with over $1.0 billion in cash and cash equivalents and zero debt. This financial health allows it to manage supply chains effectively and maintain pricing power.
Positive Analyst Sentiment and Institutional Interest
A significant majority of analysts recommend a 'Buy' or 'Strong Buy' for WSM stock. Institutional investors, such as Fidelity Investments and Arrowstreet Capital, have been increasing their holdings, indicating confidence in its prospects.
Dividend Growth
Williams-Sonoma has a history of increasing its dividend for 20 consecutive years, with a recent announcement of a 15% increase in its quarterly dividend. Its dividend payout ratio is considered healthy and sustainable.
Adaptability and Reduced Risk
The company has reduced its exposure to China, mitigating risks associated with tariffs. Its focus on differentiated products with limited elasticity and effective pricing strategies further strengthens its position.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
WSM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$186.47
52W Range Position
53%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$147.39
+26.5% from the low
52-Week High
$221.81
-15.9% from the high
1 Month
+2.11%
3 Month
-15.50%
YTD
-0.7%
1 Year
+20.8%
3Y CAGR
+47.4%
5Y CAGR
+15.3%
10Y CAGR
+20.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
WSM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
21.4x
vs 21.3x median
+1% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+0.4%
vs +1.7% median
-77% below peer median
Net Margin
13.9%
vs 1.9% median
+647% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WSM WSM Williams-Sonoma, Inc. | $23.0B | 21.4x | +0.4% | 13.9% | Hold | +7.4% |
RH RH Rh | $2.5B | 19.1x | +1.7% | 3.2% | Buy | +57.9% |
BBB BBBY Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. | $383M | — | -14.3% | -5.8% | Hold | +46.5% |
LOV LOVE The Lovesac Company | $230M | 25.9x | +6.3% | 1.9% | Buy | +42.6% |
TGT TGT Target Corporation | $59.3B | 16.3x | +0.1% | 3.8% | Hold | -11.4% |
W W Wayfair Inc. | $8.7B | 23.6x | +3.2% | -2.4% | Buy | +51.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
WSM Dividend and Capital Return
WSM returns capital mainly through $854M/year in buybacks (3.7% buyback yield), with a modest 1.38% dividend — combining for 5.1% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 20 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
5.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.7%
Dividend Yield
1.38%
Payout Ratio
29.1%
How WSM Splits Its Return
Div 1.38%
Buyback 3.7%
Dividend 1.38%Buybacks 3.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.57
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
20Y
3Y Div CAGR
18.7%
5Y Div CAGR
21.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$854M
Estimated Shares Retired
5M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
123M
At 3.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.42 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.55 | +18.3% | 3.4% | 4.6% |
| 2024 | $2.15 | +23.9% | 3.0% | 4.0% |
| 2023 | $1.74 | +14.1% | 2.5% | 4.3% |
| 2022 | $1.52 | +26.0% | 9.4% | 11.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsWSM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 56 analysts covering the stock, 16 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 34 rate it Hold, and 6 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $200, implying +7.4% from the current price of $186. The bear case scenario is $85 and the bull case is $260.
02What is the WSM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for WSM is $200 based on 56 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $220 (+18.0% from today), and the low-end target is $175 (-6.2%). The base case model target is $201.
03Is Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) stock overvalued in 2026?
WSM trades at 21.4x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for WSM in 2026 are: (1) Macroeconomic Risks — Persistent inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's target, increasing costs for Williams-Sonoma and potentially reducing consumer purchasing power. (2) Economic Uncertainty — As a retailer of discretionary goods, Williams-Sonoma is highly susceptible to economic downturns. (3) Intense Competition — The home furnishing retail industry is highly competitive, with Williams-Sonoma facing pressure from both domestic and international competitors. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Williams-Sonoma, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates WSM will report consensus revenue of $7.8B (+0.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $9.02 (+0.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $7.9B in revenue.
06When does Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for WSM is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Williams-Sonoma, Inc. generate?
Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) generated $1.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 13.6%. WSM returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.4% yield) and share repurchases ($854M TTM).