Upside case
Bull case
$334+47.1%
WSM would need investors to value it at roughly 38x earnings — about 12x more generous than today's 26x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
56
analysts
16 bullish · 6 bearish · 56 covering WSM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
16
Hold
34
Sell
6
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$205
-9.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$160 – $334
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
56
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
26.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $26.7B
WSM price targets
Three scenarios for where WSM stock could go
Current
~$227
Confidence
57 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $227
Bear
$160
Base
$253
Bull
$334
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$253+11.6%
This is close to how the market is already pricing WSM — at roughly 29x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$160-29.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 8x multiple contraction could push WSM down roughly 30% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Williams-Sonoma, Inc.
WSM · NYSEConsumer CyclicalSpecialty RetailFebruary year-end
Williams-Sonoma is a premium home furnishings and kitchenware retailer operating multiple lifestyle brands including Pottery Barn, West Elm, and its namesake Williams Sonoma stores. It generates revenue primarily through direct-to-consumer sales — about 65% from e-commerce and 35% from retail stores — across its portfolio of brands that each target different home decor segments. The company's key advantage is its strong multi-brand portfolio with distinct brand identities, a vertically integrated supply chain that allows for proprietary product development, and a loyal customer base cultivated through its iconic catalogs and digital marketing.
Market Cap
$26.7B
Revenue TTM
$7.9B
Net Income TTM
$1.1B
Net Margin
13.8%
WSM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.00/$1.81
Revenue
$1.8B/$1.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.96/$1.88
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.04/$2.90
Revenue
$2.4B/$2.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.93/$1.81
Revenue
$1.8B/$1.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.00/$1.81 | +10.5% | $1.8B/$1.8B | +0.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.96/$1.88 | +4.3% | $1.9B/$1.9B | +0.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.04/$2.90 | +4.8% | $2.4B/$2.4B | -2.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.93/$1.81 | +6.6% | $1.8B/$1.8B | +0.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$8.0B
+2.1% YoY
FY2
$8.2B
+1.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$9.42
+3.8% YoY
FY2
$10.02
+6.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.1B
FCF Margin: 13.9%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
WSM beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
WSM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $7.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Pottery Barn Segment
38.4%
-1.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Non-US
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Pottery Barn Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 38.4% of FY 2025 revenue, down 1.3% YoY.
Non-US is the largest reported region at 100.0%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
WSM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fair versus peers
Fair value est. $239 — implies +5.3% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
5.3%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
WSM
25.7x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
In line with benchmark
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
WSM
25.7x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+21% premium
vs WSM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
25.7x
vs
5Y Average
15.9x
+61% premium
Forward PE
26.1x
S&P 500
18.8x
+39%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
+60%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
25.7x
S&P 500
24.4x
+5%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+21%
5Y Avg
15.9x
+61%
PEG Ratio
1.66x
S&P 500
1.66x
-0%
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
+79%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
16.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
+8%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
+35%
5Y Avg
10.9x
+52%
Price/FCF
25.3x
S&P 500
20.7x
+22%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
+63%
5Y Avg
16.0x
+58%
Price/Sales
3.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+11%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+390%
5Y Avg
2.2x
+57%
Dividend Yield
1.13%
S&P 500
1.91%
-41%
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
-48%
5Y Avg
1.60%
-29%
| Metric | WSM | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg WSM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 26.1x | 18.8x+39% | 16.3x+60% | — |
| Trailing PE | 25.7x | 24.4x | 21.2x+21% | 15.9x+61% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.66x | 1.66x | 0.92x+79% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.5x | 15.2x | 12.2x+35% | 10.9x+52% |
| Price/FCF | 25.3x | 20.7x+22% | 15.6x+63% | 16.0x+58% |
| Price/Sales | 3.4x | 3.1x+11% | 0.7x+390% | 2.2x+57% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.13% | 1.91% | 2.17% | 1.60% |
WSM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolWSM Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
WSM generates $1.1B in free cash flow at a 13.9% margin — 44.3% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 4.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$7.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+1.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
46.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
18.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
13.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$9.08
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
13.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
44.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
20.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.0B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$437M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.4× FCF
~0.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
53.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.3%
Dividend
1.1%
Buyback
3.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$854M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.57
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
29.1%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
118M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageWSM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Medium
Growth strategy risks
The company's focus on Gen Z growth via Dormify relaunch and collaborations like Pottery Barn Teen with Billabong may face execution challenges or fail to resonate with the target demographic.
Lower
Market sentiment risk
Analyst consensus suggests minimal upside potential with a Hold rating and only +0.2% implied upside, indicating limited near-term bullish catalysts.
High Risk
Legal and regulatory risks
Mention of joint case management filings and legal database searches hints at potential unresolved litigation or regulatory scrutiny impacting operations.
Medium
Competitive positioning
As a premium home goods retailer, Williams-Sonoma faces intense competition in both physical and online retail spaces, pressuring margins and market share.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why WSM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Margin expansion
The company has demonstrated significant margin expansion, contributing to its stock price appreciation.
Operational efficiency
Williams-Sonoma has improved operational efficiency, enhancing profitability and investor confidence.
Strategic adaptability
The company's ability to adapt strategically, especially in non-furniture categories, has driven growth.
Vertical integration
Vertical integration has been a key factor in the company's success, streamlining operations and reducing costs.
Disciplined capital allocation
Williams-Sonoma's disciplined approach to capital allocation has supported sustainable growth and shareholder value.
Brand strength
The strong brand reputation of Williams-Sonoma continues to attract customers and drive sales.
Omnichannel execution
Effective omnichannel execution has enabled the company to reach a broader customer base and enhance shopping experiences.
Accelerating comps
The company has delivered accelerating comparable sales, indicating robust underlying business performance.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
WSM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$226.92
52W Range Position
91%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$154.11
+47.2% from the low
52-Week High
$234.41
-3.2% from the high
1 Month
+34.15%
3 Month
+23.37%
YTD
+20.8%
1 Year
+41.4%
3Y CAGR
+55.1%
5Y CAGR
+24.6%
10Y CAGR
+24.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
WSM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
26.1x
vs 28.1x median
-7% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.1%
vs +4.3% median
-52% below peer median
Net Margin
13.8%
vs 0.5% median
+2425% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WSM WSM Williams-Sonoma, Inc. | $26.7B | 26.1x | +2.1% | 13.8% | Hold | -9.5% |
RH RH Rh | $2.8B | 30.1x | +4.3% | 3.0% | Buy | +14.8% |
BBB BBBY Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. | $429M | — | +1.2% | -5.8% | Hold | +30.7% |
LOV LOVE The Lovesac Company | $212M | 26.0x | +11.0% | 0.5% | Buy | +47.4% |
TGT TGT Target Corporation | $59.4B | 15.6x | +2.5% | 3.4% | Hold | +0.4% |
W W Wayfair Inc. | $11.7B | 32.5x | +6.8% | -2.4% | Buy | +12.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
WSM Dividend and Capital Return
WSM returns capital mainly through $854M/year in buybacks (3.2% buyback yield), with a modest 1.13% dividend — combining for 4.3% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 20 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
4.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.2%
Dividend Yield
1.13%
Payout Ratio
29.1%
How WSM Splits Its Return
Div 1.13%
Buyback 3.2%
Dividend 1.13%Buybacks 3.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.57
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
20Y
3Y Div CAGR
18.7%
5Y Div CAGR
21.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$854M
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
118M
At 3.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.18 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.55 | +18.3% | 3.4% | 4.6% |
| 2024 | $2.15 | +23.9% | 3.0% | 4.0% |
| 2023 | $1.74 | +14.1% | 2.5% | 4.3% |
| 2022 | $1.52 | +26.0% | 9.4% | 11.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsWSM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 56 analysts covering the stock, 16 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 34 rate it Hold, and 6 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $205, implying -9.5% from the current price of $227. The bear case scenario is $160 and the bull case is $334.
02What is the WSM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for WSM is $205 based on 56 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $230 (+1.4% from today), and the low-end target is $190 (-16.3%). The base case model target is $253.
03Is Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) stock overvalued in 2026?
WSM trades at 26.1x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fair versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for WSM in 2026 are: (1) Legal and regulatory risks — Mention of joint case management filings and legal database searches hints at potential unresolved litigation or regulatory scrutiny impacting operations. (2) Growth strategy risks — The company's focus on Gen Z growth via Dormify relaunch and collaborations like Pottery Barn Teen with Billabong may face execution challenges or fail to resonate with the target demographic. (3) Competitive positioning — As a premium home goods retailer, Williams-Sonoma faces intense competition in both physical and online retail spaces, pressuring margins and market share. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Williams-Sonoma, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates WSM will report consensus revenue of $8.0B (+2.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $9.42 (+3.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $8.2B in revenue.
06When does Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for WSM is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Williams-Sonoma, Inc. generate?
Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) generated $1.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 13.9%. WSM returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.1% yield) and share repurchases ($854M TTM).