Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing W more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Wayfair Inc. (W) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
57
analysts
30 bullish · 3 bearish · 57 covering W
Strong Buy
1
Buy
29
Hold
24
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$99
+12.3% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
57
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
32.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $11.7B
W price targets
Three scenarios for where W stock could go
Current
~$89
Confidence
63 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Wayfair Inc.
W · NYSEConsumer CyclicalSpecialty RetailDecember year-end
Wayfair is an online retailer specializing in home goods — furniture, décor, and housewares — sold through its family of branded websites. It generates revenue primarily from direct retail sales to consumers, with additional income from advertising and services to suppliers. The company's key advantage is its massive online selection — over 33 million products — and proprietary logistics network that connects customers with thousands of suppliers.
Market Cap
$11.7B
Revenue TTM
$12.7B
Net Income TTM
-$305M
Net Margin
-2.4%
W Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+8.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.87/$0.36
Revenue
$3.3B/$3.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.70/$0.46
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.85/$0.64
Revenue
$3.3B/$3.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.26/$0.26
Revenue
$2.9B/$2.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.87/$0.36 | +141.7% | $3.3B/$3.0B | +10.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.70/$0.46 | +52.2% | $3.1B/$3.3B | -5.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.85/$0.64 | +32.8% | $3.3B/$3.3B | +1.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.26/$0.26 | +0.0% | $2.9B/$2.9B | +1.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$13.5B
+6.8% YoY
FY2
$14.1B
+4.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-0.10
+95.7% YoY
FY2
$-0.02
+77.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$456M
FCF Margin: 3.6%
Next Earnings
August 3, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.88
Expected Revenue
$3.4B
W beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
W Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $12.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
US Segment
88.1%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
US Segment
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
US Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 88.1% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
US Segment is the largest reported region at 100.0%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
W Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $61 — implies -30.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
30.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
W
-36.6x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
250% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
W
-36.6x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
273% discount
vs W 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-36.6x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
32.5x
S&P 500
18.8x
+73%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
+99%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-36.6x
S&P 500
24.4x
-250%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
-273%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
44.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
+191%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
+263%
5Y Avg
72.8x
-39%
Price/FCF
25.1x
S&P 500
20.7x
+21%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
+61%
5Y Avg
82.0x
-69%
Price/Sales
0.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-70%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+34%
5Y Avg
0.8x
+22%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | W | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg W |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 32.5x | 18.8x+73% | 16.3x+99% | — |
| Trailing PE | -36.6x | 24.4x-250% | 21.2x-273% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 44.2x | 15.2x+191% | 12.2x+263% | 72.8x-39% |
| Price/FCF | 25.1x | 20.7x+21% | 15.6x+61% | 82.0x-69% |
| Price/Sales | 0.9x | 3.1x-70% | 0.7x+34% | 0.8x+22% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 2.17% | — |
W trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolW Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for W are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$12.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+6.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
30.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
1.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-2.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-2.33
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$456M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
3.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
—
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-9.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
5.7× FCF
~5.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
132M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageW Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Competitive pressure
Wayfair faces intense competition from other e-commerce platforms like Overstock.com, which offer similar home goods at discounted prices.
Medium
Valuation uncertainty
Analyst price targets vary widely, with some predicting a significant upside while others suggest a much lower valuation, indicating uncertainty in future performance.
Medium
Earnings volatility
Wayfair's stock price projections are based on historical performance and expected earnings growth, which may be inconsistent given market conditions.
Lower
Physical store presence
Wayfair's limited physical store locations compared to competitors may restrict its ability to capture offline customer demand.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why W Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Revenue growth momentum
Wayfair's Q1 2026 numbers show 7.4% revenue growth, indicating strong business performance.
Cost discipline execution
Wayfair is executing well on cost discipline and logistics efficiency, improving profitability.
Positive cash flow
The bull case highlights Wayfair's positive cash flow as a key financial strength.
Cheap valuation
Wayfair's historically cheap valuation presents an attractive entry point for investors.
Customer base expansion
Return to active customer growth and stronger order trends signal market share gains.
EBITDA margin improvement
Best Q1 adjusted EBITDA margin in five years demonstrates operational efficiency.
E-commerce leadership
Wayfair's strong online presence in furniture and home goods positions it as a market leader.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
W Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$88.52
52W Range Position
57%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$47.21
+87.5% from the low
52-Week High
$119.98
-26.2% from the high
1 Month
+49.38%
3 Month
+15.32%
YTD
-16.9%
1 Year
+80.2%
3Y CAGR
+16.1%
5Y CAGR
-21.8%
10Y CAGR
+8.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
W vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
32.5x
vs 26.9x median
+21% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.8%
vs +4.3% median
+59% above peer median
Net Margin
-2.4%
vs 3.0% median
-180% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
W W Wayfair Inc. | $11.7B | 32.5x | +6.8% | -2.4% | Buy | +12.3% |
RH RH Rh | $2.8B | 30.1x | +4.3% | 3.0% | Buy | +14.8% |
WSM WSM Williams-Sonoma, Inc. | $26.7B | 26.1x | +2.1% | 13.8% | Hold | -9.5% |
BBB BBBY Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. | $429M | — | +1.2% | -5.8% | Hold | +30.7% |
ZG ZG Zillow Group, Inc. Class A | $7.8B | 14.2x | +12.1% | 2.3% | Buy | +92.3% |
AMZ AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. | $2.63T | 27.8x | +11.4% | 12.2% | Buy | +25.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsW Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Wayfair Inc. (W) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Wayfair Inc. (W) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 57 analysts covering the stock, 30 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 24 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $99, implying +12.3% from the current price of $89.
02What is the W stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for W is $99 based on 57 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $125 (+41.2% from today), and the low-end target is $75 (-15.3%).
03Is Wayfair Inc. (W) stock overvalued in 2026?
W trades at 32.5x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Wayfair Inc. (W) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for W in 2026 are: (1) Competitive pressure — Wayfair faces intense competition from other e-commerce platforms like Overstock. (2) Valuation uncertainty — Analyst price targets vary widely, with some predicting a significant upside while others suggest a much lower valuation, indicating uncertainty in future performance. (3) Earnings volatility — Wayfair's stock price projections are based on historical performance and expected earnings growth, which may be inconsistent given market conditions. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Wayfair Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates W will report consensus revenue of $13.5B (+6.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $-0.10 (+95.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $14.1B in revenue.
06When does Wayfair Inc. (W) report its next earnings?
Wayfair Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-03. Consensus expects EPS of $0.88 and revenue of $3.4B. Over recent quarters, W has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Wayfair Inc. generate?
Wayfair Inc. (W) generated $456M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 3.6%. W returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).