Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing XPEV more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
XPeng Inc. (XPEV) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
17
analysts
11 bullish · 3 bearish · 17 covering XPEV
Strong Buy
0
Buy
11
Hold
3
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$22
+63.1% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
17
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $12.5B
XPEV price targets
Three scenarios for where XPEV stock could go
Current
~$13
Confidence
53 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
XPeng Inc.
XPEV · NYSEConsumer CyclicalAuto - ManufacturersDecember year-end
XPeng is a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer focused on smart, connected cars with advanced driver-assistance systems. It generates revenue primarily from vehicle sales — with additional income from services like maintenance, charging, and software subscriptions — though the exact segment breakdown isn't publicly detailed. The company's key advantage lies in its vertically integrated software and hardware development, particularly its proprietary XPILOT autonomous driving technology and intelligent cockpit systems.
Market Cap
$12.5B
Revenue TTM
$60.3B
Net Income TTM
-$4.3B
Net Margin
-7.1%
XPEV Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+299.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$-0.07/$-0.11
Revenue
$2.5B/$2.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.06/$-0.01
Revenue
$2.9B/$3.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.06/$0.00
Revenue
$3.2B/$3.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$-0.27/$-0.11
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $-0.07/$-0.11 | +33.6% | $2.5B/$2.5B | +2.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.06/$-0.01 | -656.6% | $2.9B/$3.1B | -7.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.06/$0.00 | +4216.5% | $3.2B/$3.1B | +3.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $-0.27/$-0.11 | -142.7% | $1.9B/$1.9B | +1.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$74.3B
+23.2% YoY
FY2
$93.6B
+26.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-8.00
-76.9% YoY
FY2
$-12.94
-61.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$0
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
XPEV beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
XPEV Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $76.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Vehicle
89.1%
+90.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Vehicle is the largest disclosed segment at 89.1% of FY 2025 revenue, up 90.8% YoY.
XPEV Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Limited: Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $102 — implies +670.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
670.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
XPEV
-37.5x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
254% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
XPEV
-37.5x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
277% discount
vs XPEV 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-37.5x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
18.8x
—
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-37.5x
S&P 500
24.4x
-254%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
-277%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.2x
—
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
17.3x
S&P 500
20.7x
-17%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
+11%
5Y Avg
2.0x
+779%
Price/Sales
1.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
-63%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+63%
5Y Avg
0.6x
+83%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | XPEV | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg XPEV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 18.8x | 16.3x | — |
| Trailing PE | -37.5x | 24.4x-254% | 21.2x-277% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.2x | 12.2x | — |
| Price/FCF | 17.3x | 20.7x-17% | 15.6x+11% | 2.0x+779% |
| Price/Sales | 1.1x | 3.1x-63% | 0.7x+63% | 0.6x+83% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 2.17% | — |
XPEV trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 3 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolXPEV Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for XPEV are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$60.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+66.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
15.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-8.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-7.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-4.53
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$0
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
—
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-8.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-5.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$24.0B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$13.4B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-13.8%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-8.9%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
950M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageXPEV Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Valuation downside risk
DCF model indicates a bear case intrinsic value of $13, below the current price, suggesting potential overvaluation.
High Risk
Financial health concerns
XPeng disclosed 115 risk factors in its recent earnings report, signaling significant operational and financial challenges.
Medium
Market competition
As a Chinese EV manufacturer, XPeng faces intense competition in the rapidly evolving electric vehicle market.
Medium
Stock price volatility
AI models forecast a 2026 target price of $12.46, indicating potential downside from current levels.
Lower
Sector rotation risk
Bull case scenario depends on sector rotation into Consumer Cyclical, which is uncertain and low-probability (20%).
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why XPEV Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong delivery growth
XPeng reported an 80% month-over-month rebound to 27,415 vehicle deliveries for March 2026 and 62,682 for the first quarter, indicating robust demand.
Gross margin expansion
Q1 2026 gross margin reached 20.6%, a 5-point year-over-year improvement, showcasing significant efficiency gains.
Advanced charging technology
The XPENG X9 features 800V high-voltage SiC technology enabling 10-80% charge in 12 minutes, enhancing competitive positioning.
Strategic market expansion
XPeng has outlined a three-year strategy for Latin America and officially entered the Mexican market, with plans to launch new models by 2027.
Volkswagen partnership validation
The collaboration with Volkswagen serves as a strong endorsement of XPeng's technology and market potential.
Differentiated ADAS technology
XPeng's XNGP advanced driver-assistance system is a key differentiator in the competitive Chinese EV market.
International market success
XPeng achieved a milestone of delivering its 1,000th vehicle in Singapore within slightly over a year, demonstrating global appeal.
Attractive valuation
XPeng trades at 2x sales compared to Tesla's 16x, presenting a potential value opportunity given its growth trajectory.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
XPEV Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$13.21
52W Range Position
2%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$12.97
+1.9% from the low
52-Week High
$28.24
-53.2% from the high
1 Month
-12.28%
3 Month
-29.57%
YTD
-35.3%
1 Year
-29.0%
3Y CAGR
+6.7%
5Y CAGR
-21.8%
10Y CAGR
-4.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
XPEV vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs 115.0x median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
+23.2%
vs +16.6% median
+40% above peer median
Net Margin
-7.1%
vs -35.0% median
+80% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XPE XPEV XPeng Inc. | $12.5B | — | +23.2% | -7.1% | Buy | +63.1% |
NIO NIO NIO Inc. | $11.8B | — | +22.5% | -35.0% | Buy | +30.3% |
LI LI Li Auto Inc. | $13.3B | 17.7x | +12.8% | 1.0% | Hold | +32.6% |
RIV RIVN Rivian Automotive, Inc. | $20.4B | — | +20.2% | -63.6% | Buy | +4.7% |
LCI LCID Lucid Group, Inc. | $1.8B | — | +16.6% | -300.4% | Hold | +11.9% |
TSL TSLA Tesla, Inc. | $1.50T | 212.2x | +8.2% | 4.0% | Hold | +12.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsXPEV Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is XPeng Inc. (XPEV) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
XPeng Inc. (XPEV) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 17 analysts covering the stock, 11 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $22, implying +63.1% from the current price of $13.
02What is the XPEV stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for XPEV is $22 based on 17 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $25 (+90.8% from today), and the low-end target is $17 (+28.7%).
03Is XPeng Inc. (XPEV) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for XPEV is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
04What are the main risks for XPeng Inc. (XPEV) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for XPEV in 2026 are: (1) Valuation downside risk — DCF model indicates a bear case intrinsic value of $13, below the current price, suggesting potential overvaluation. (2) Financial health concerns — XPeng disclosed 115 risk factors in its recent earnings report, signaling significant operational and financial challenges. (3) Market competition — As a Chinese EV manufacturer, XPeng faces intense competition in the rapidly evolving electric vehicle market. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is XPeng Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates XPEV will report consensus revenue of $74.3B (+23.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $-8.00 (-76.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $93.6B in revenue.
06When does XPeng Inc. (XPEV) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for XPEV is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does XPeng Inc. generate?
XPeng Inc. (XPEV) generated $0 in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 0.0%. XPEV returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).