Upside case
Bull case
$94+427.5%
LI would need investors to value it at roughly 60x earnings — about 49x more generous than today's 11x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Li Auto Inc. (LI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
16
analysts
7 bullish · 2 bearish · 16 covering LI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
7
Hold
7
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$20
+12.5% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $94
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
16
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
11.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $35.7B
LI price targets
Three scenarios for where LI stock could go
Current
~$18
Confidence
29 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $18
Base
$91
Bull
$94
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$91+413.2%
At 59x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Li Auto Inc.
LI · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalAuto - ManufacturersDecember year-end
Li Auto is a Chinese premium electric vehicle manufacturer specializing in smart SUVs and MPVs. It generates revenue primarily from vehicle sales — with additional income from charging solutions, accessories, and software services — though vehicle sales dominate its revenue mix. The company's competitive advantage lies in its extended-range electric vehicle technology that eliminates range anxiety, combined with its premium brand positioning in China's growing EV market.
Market Cap
$35.7B
Revenue TTM
$125.7B
Net Income TTM
$4.5B
Net Margin
3.6%
LI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+122.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.08/$0.13
Revenue
$3.6B/$4.8B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.14/$0.10
Revenue
$4.2B/$3.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.09/$0.04
Revenue
$3.8B/$4.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.04/$0.03
Revenue
$4.1B/$4.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.08/$0.13 | -38.7% | $3.6B/$4.8B | -25.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.14/$0.10 | +36.7% | $4.2B/$3.7B | +14.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.09/$0.04 | -325.0% | $3.8B/$4.1B | -6.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.04/$0.03 | +38.1% | $4.1B/$4.2B | -1.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$158.7B
+26.2% YoY
FY2
$212.6B
+33.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.02
-32.4% YoY
FY2
$5.67
+87.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$7.7B
FCF Margin: -6.1%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
LI beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
LI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $144.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Vehicle sales
95.9%
+15.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Vehicle sales is the largest disclosed segment at 95.9% of FY 2024 revenue, up 15.2% YoY.
LI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $169 — implies +864.7% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
864.7%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
LI
16.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
36% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
LI
16.1x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
17% discount
vs LI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
16.1x
vs
5Y Average
3.3x
+390% premium
Forward PE
11.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
-40%
Consumer Cyclical
15.1x
-25%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
16.1x
S&P 500
25.1x
-36%
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
-17%
5Y Avg
3.3x
+390%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.91x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
20.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
+35%
Consumer Cyclical
11.3x
+82%
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
29.7x
S&P 500
21.1x
+41%
Consumer Cyclical
14.6x
+103%
5Y Avg
5.9x
+403%
Price/Sales
1.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
-46%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+135%
5Y Avg
1.0x
+70%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.23%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | LI | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg LI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 11.4x | 19.1x-40% | 15.1x-25% | — |
| Trailing PE | 16.1x | 25.1x-36% | 19.3x-17% | 3.3x+390% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 0.91x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.6x | 15.2x+35% | 11.3x+82% | — |
| Price/FCF | 29.7x | 21.1x+41% | 14.6x+103% | 5.9x+403% |
| Price/Sales | 1.7x | 3.1x-46% | 0.7x+135% | 1.0x+70% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 2.23% | — |
LI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolLI Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
LI 209.3% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$125.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-11.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
19.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
2.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
3.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.47
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$7.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-6.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
209.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$65.9B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$49.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
6.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
2.0B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageLI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Profitability & Sales Decline
Li Auto forecasts a 10% drop in sales in 2026 due to a lack of new models and intensified competition. 2025 revenue fell to RMB112.3 bn from RMB144.5 bn in 2024, while net income plunged to RMB1.1 bn from RMB8.0 bn, underscoring the potential erosion of profitability.
High Risk
Rising Input Costs
Raw material prices—lithium, copper, and storage chips—have surged 30% to 50%, directly inflating production costs. This cost inflation could compress margins and reduce earnings if not offset by pricing power.
High Risk
VIE Structure & Legal Risk
Li Auto’s reliance on Variable Interest Entities (VIEs) to operate in China exposes it to regulatory uncertainty. The legality and enforceability of these contracts have not been tested in Chinese courts, potentially jeopardizing control and exposing the company to enforcement actions.
Medium
Intensifying Competition & Price Wars
The Chinese EV market is described as “brutal and bloody,” with rivals BYD, Nio, and Xpeng launching overlapping products. This limits Li Auto’s pricing power and pressures margins, especially amid ongoing price cuts and rebates.
Medium
Lack of New Models
Li Auto has no major new model launches planned for 2026, while competitors introduce extended‑range EVs and BEVs. The absence of fresh product offerings could erode market share and revenue growth.
Medium
Geopolitical & Trade Tensions
Export controls, outbound investment rules, and potential EU tariffs on Chinese EVs pose risks to market access and supply chain stability. These tensions could restrict sales and increase compliance costs.
Lower
Stock Volatility
Li Auto’s share price has been volatile, with fluctuations driven by broader market and industry swings, particularly in China. This volatility can affect investor sentiment and capital costs.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why LI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
SiriusXM Combination & Strong 2023 Results
Liberty SiriusXM Group is set to combine with SiriusXM in early Q3 2024, leveraging SiriusXM’s robust 2023 performance: $8.95 billion in revenue, $1.26 billion net income, and $2.79 billion adjusted EBITDA. The group also cut debt by $782 million in 2023, and Q1 2024 revenue grew 1% YoY to $2.16 billion with advertising up 7% and adjusted EBITDA up 4% to $650 million.
Formula 1 Expansion & MotoGP Acquisition
Formula 1 posted a 5% rise in fan attendance in 2023, reaching 6 million, alongside 1.5 billion cumulative TV viewers and 70.5 million social media followers. New multi‑year race deals, including Madrid 2026, and renewals in Britain, Japan, and Brazil, are complemented by a planned MotoGP acquisition expected to close by year‑end 2024.
Liberty Global NAV Discount & Share Buyback Momentum
Liberty Global trades at a significant discount to its $14.5 billion portfolio value (Q3 2024), implying a net asset value per share more than double the current price. The company has repurchased 3% of shares by April 26 2024, targeting 10% by year‑end, and is spinning off Sunrise in Q4 2024.
Liberty Energy Robust Growth & Capital Returns
Liberty Energy delivered $4.7 billion revenue and $556 million net income in 2023, a 39% YoY increase, with Adjusted EBITDA of $1.2 billion up 41%. The firm achieved a 32% TTM Adjusted ROCE and returned $42 million to shareholders in Q1 2024, repurchasing 0.9% of shares and totaling 12.5% cumulative buybacks since July 2022.
Liberty Live Group Investment Upside
The fair value of Liberty Live Group’s investment in Live Nation rose from $6.5 billion on December 31 2023 to $7.4 billion on March 31 2024, reflecting a growing stake in a leading live‑events platform.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
LI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$17.78
52W Range Position
13%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$15.71
+13.2% from the low
52-Week High
$32.03
-44.5% from the high
1 Month
-3.68%
3 Month
-0.06%
YTD
+3.1%
1 Year
-29.6%
3Y CAGR
-9.4%
5Y CAGR
-1.1%
10Y CAGR
+0.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
LI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
11.4x
vs 101.8x median
-89% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+26.2%
vs +44.6% median
-41% below peer median
Net Margin
3.6%
vs -7.1% median
+151% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LI Li Auto Inc. | $35.7B | 11.4x | +26.2% | 3.6% | Buy | +12.5% |
NIO NIO NIO Inc. | $12.3B | — | +45.7% | -35.0% | Buy | +9.3% |
XPE XPEV XPeng Inc. | $5.5B | — | +44.6% | -7.1% | Buy | +61.2% |
ZK ZK ZEEKR Intelligent Technology Holding Limited | $6.8B | 2.3x | +59.6% | -3.7% | Buy | +24.4% |
TSL TSLA Tesla, Inc. | $1.46T | 201.3x | +5.0% | 4.0% | Hold | +15.7% |
RIV RIVN Rivian Automotive, Inc. | $18.1B | — | +25.5% | -63.6% | Buy | +25.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsLI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Li Auto Inc. (LI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Li Auto Inc. (LI) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 16 analysts covering the stock, 7 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 7 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $20, implying +12.5% from the current price of $18.
02What is the LI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for LI is $20 based on 16 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $27 (+51.9% from today), and the low-end target is $15 (-15.6%). The base case model target is $91.
03Is Li Auto Inc. (LI) stock overvalued in 2026?
LI trades at 11.4x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Li Auto Inc. (LI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for LI in 2026 are: (1) Profitability & Sales Decline — Li Auto forecasts a 10% drop in sales in 2026 due to a lack of new models and intensified competition. (2) Rising Input Costs — Raw material prices—lithium, copper, and storage chips—have surged 30% to 50%, directly inflating production costs. (3) VIE Structure & Legal Risk — Li Auto’s reliance on Variable Interest Entities (VIEs) to operate in China exposes it to regulatory uncertainty. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Li Auto Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates LI will report consensus revenue of $158.7B (+26.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.02 (-32.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $212.6B in revenue.
06When does Li Auto Inc. (LI) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for LI is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Li Auto Inc. generate?
Li Auto Inc. (LI) had a free cash outflow of $7.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 6.1%. LI returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).