Upside case
Bull case
$154+1066.2%
LI would need investors to value it at roughly 207x earnings — about 189x more generous than today's 18x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Li Auto Inc. (LI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
16
analysts
7 bullish · 1 bearish · 16 covering LI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
7
Hold
8
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$18
+32.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$74 – $154
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
16
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
17.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $13.3B
LI price targets
Three scenarios for where LI stock could go
Current
~$13
Confidence
52 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $13
Bear
$74
Base
$117
Bull
$154
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$117+785.1%
At 157x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$74+457.6%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push LI down roughly 458% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Li Auto Inc.
LI · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalAuto - ManufacturersDecember year-end
Li Auto is a Chinese premium electric vehicle manufacturer specializing in smart SUVs and MPVs. It generates revenue primarily from vehicle sales — with additional income from charging solutions, accessories, and software services — though vehicle sales dominate its revenue mix. The company's competitive advantage lies in its extended-range electric vehicle technology that eliminates range anxiety, combined with its premium brand positioning in China's growing EV market.
Market Cap
$13.3B
Revenue TTM
$112.1B
Net Income TTM
$1.1B
Net Margin
1.0%
LI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.14/$0.10
Revenue
$4.2B/$3.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.09/$0.04
Revenue
$3.8B/$4.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.04/$0.03
Revenue
$4.1B/$4.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$-0.33/$-0.27
Revenue
$3.3B/$3.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.14/$0.10 | +36.7% | $4.2B/$3.7B | +14.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.09/$0.04 | -325.0% | $3.8B/$4.1B | -6.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.04/$0.03 | +38.1% | $4.1B/$4.2B | -1.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $-0.33/$-0.27 | -24.2% | $3.3B/$3.2B | +5.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$126.5B
+12.8% YoY
FY2
$147.8B
+16.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.28
+18.1% YoY
FY2
$2.60
+103.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$12.8B
FCF Margin: -11.4%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
LI beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
LI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $112.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Vehicle sales
95.0%
-23.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Vehicle sales is the largest disclosed segment at 95.0% of FY 2025 revenue, down 23.0% YoY.
LI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Relative Valuation
Benchmark comparison across market, sector, and history below.
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
LI
85.9x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+251% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
LI
85.9x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+306% premium
vs LI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
85.9x
vs
5Y Average
7.6x
+1028% premium
Forward PE
17.7x
S&P 500
18.8x
-6%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
+8%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
85.9x
S&P 500
24.4x
+251%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+306%
5Y Avg
7.6x
+1028%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.2x
—
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
20.7x
—
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
—
5Y Avg
4.7x
—
Price/Sales
0.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
-73%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+18%
5Y Avg
0.4x
+87%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | LI | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg LI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 17.7x | 18.8x | 16.3x | — |
| Trailing PE | 85.9x | 24.4x+251% | 21.2x+306% | 7.6x+1028% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.2x | 12.2x | — |
| Price/FCF | — | 20.7x | 15.6x | 4.7x |
| Price/Sales | 0.8x | 3.1x-73% | 0.7x+18% | 0.4x+87% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 2.17% | — |
LI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 3 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolLI Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for LI are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$112.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-21.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
18.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-0.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
1.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.08
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$12.8B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-11.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-2.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$56.9B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$39.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
1.5%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-2.6%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
1.0B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageLI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Competitive Pressure
Li Auto faces intense competition in the Chinese NEV market, with rivals like Xiaomi launching new models that could erode market share.
High Risk
Sales Decline
Declining sales pose a significant risk, potentially impacting revenue growth and investor confidence.
Medium
EV Transition Challenges
The shift to pure EVs presents operational and market risks, given Li Auto's historical reliance on EREV technology.
Medium
Overseas Expansion Risks
Scaling overseas markets without margin dilution is a critical challenge for maintaining profitability.
Medium
Charging Infrastructure
China's still-developing charging infrastructure could hinder adoption of Li Auto's EVs, despite the EREV tailwind.
Lower
Financial Foundation
While Li Auto has a strong balance sheet, external pressures could strain its financial resilience.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why LI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong delivery growth
Li Auto reported cumulative deliveries of about 1.70 billion units by May 31, showcasing strong demand for its vehicles.
Product lineup expansion
Li Auto is updating its product lineup, including the launch of its first model, the Li One, and potential new models like the Li i6.
BEV transition potential
Investors holding through the BEV transition could see significant upside if gross margins stabilize above 14%, with bull targets reaching $27-$30.
Premium smart EV focus
Li Auto designs and manufactures premium smart electric SUVs, providing safe, convenient, and cost-effective mobility solutions to families.
Analyst bullish targets
Analysts have set a consensus target price of $18 with a +25.3% implied upside, indicating potential for stock appreciation.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
LI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$13.21
52W Range Position
0%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$13.16
+0.3% from the low
52-Week High
$32.03
-58.8% from the high
1 Month
-20.85%
3 Month
-22.52%
YTD
-23.4%
1 Year
-50.0%
3Y CAGR
-26.8%
5Y CAGR
-15.2%
10Y CAGR
-2.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
LI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
17.7x
vs 107.3x median
-83% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+12.8%
vs +20.2% median
-37% below peer median
Net Margin
1.0%
vs -7.1% median
+114% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LI Li Auto Inc. | $13.3B | 17.7x | +12.8% | 1.0% | Hold | +32.6% |
NIO NIO NIO Inc. | $11.8B | — | +22.5% | -35.0% | Buy | +30.3% |
XPE XPEV XPeng Inc. | $12.5B | — | +23.2% | -7.1% | Buy | +63.1% |
ZK ZK ZEEKR Intelligent Technology Holding Limited | $6.8B | 2.3x | +15.3% | -3.7% | Buy | +24.4% |
TSL TSLA Tesla, Inc. | $1.50T | 212.2x | +8.2% | 4.0% | Hold | +12.5% |
RIV RIVN Rivian Automotive, Inc. | $20.4B | — | +20.2% | -63.6% | Buy | +4.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsLI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Li Auto Inc. (LI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Li Auto Inc. (LI) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 16 analysts covering the stock, 7 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $18, implying +32.6% from the current price of $13. The bear case scenario is $74 and the bull case is $154.
02What is the LI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for LI is $18 based on 16 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $22 (+66.5% from today), and the low-end target is $14 (+6.0%). The base case model target is $117.
03Is Li Auto Inc. (LI) stock overvalued in 2026?
LI trades at 17.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Li Auto Inc. (LI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for LI in 2026 are: (1) Competitive Pressure — Li Auto faces intense competition in the Chinese NEV market, with rivals like Xiaomi launching new models that could erode market share. (2) Sales Decline — Declining sales pose a significant risk, potentially impacting revenue growth and investor confidence. (3) EV Transition Challenges — The shift to pure EVs presents operational and market risks, given Li Auto's historical reliance on EREV technology. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Li Auto Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates LI will report consensus revenue of $126.5B (+12.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.28 (+18.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $147.8B in revenue.
06When does Li Auto Inc. (LI) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for LI is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Li Auto Inc. generate?
Li Auto Inc. (LI) had a free cash outflow of $12.8B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 11.4%. LI returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).