Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing NIO more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
NIO Inc. (NIO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
24
analysts
12 bullish · 2 bearish · 24 covering NIO
Strong Buy
0
Buy
12
Hold
10
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$7
+30.3% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
24
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $11.8B
NIO price targets
Three scenarios for where NIO stock could go
Current
~$5
Confidence
60 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
NIO Inc.
NIO · NYSEConsumer CyclicalAuto - ManufacturersDecember year-end
NIO is a Chinese premium electric vehicle manufacturer that designs, develops, and sells smart electric cars along with a comprehensive ecosystem of charging and service solutions. The company generates revenue primarily from vehicle sales—including SUVs and sedans—and secondarily from its innovative battery-as-a-service (BaaS) subscription model and energy solutions like its unique battery swap stations. NIO's key competitive advantage lies in its premium brand positioning, integrated user ecosystem—featuring its exclusive NIO Houses and mobile app community—and its pioneering battery swap technology that addresses range anxiety through rapid battery replacement.
Market Cap
$11.8B
Revenue TTM
$69.4B
Net Income TTM
-$24.3B
Net Margin
-35.0%
NIO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
17%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+6.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$-0.32/$-0.31
Revenue
$2.7B/$2.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.21/$-0.22
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.01/$-0.05
Revenue
$5.0B/$4.8B
Q2 2026
EPS
$-0.03/$-0.07
Revenue
$3.7B/$3.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $-0.32/$-0.31 | -3.9% | $2.7B/$2.7B | -3.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.21/$-0.22 | +5.5% | $3.1B/$3.1B | -1.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.01/$-0.05 | +120.0% | $5.0B/$4.8B | +3.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $-0.03/$-0.07 | +60.0% | $3.7B/$3.7B | +0.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$85.0B
+22.5% YoY
FY2
$107.0B
+25.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-6.37
+41.5% YoY
FY2
$-7.00
-9.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$16.5B
FCF Margin: -23.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
NIO beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
NIO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $10.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Service
39.4%
+25.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Service is the largest disclosed segment at 39.4% of FY 2025 revenue, up 25.6% YoY.
NIO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Relative Valuation
Benchmark comparison across market, sector, and history below.
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NIO
-5.1x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
121% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
NIO
-5.1x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
124% discount
vs NIO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-5.1x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
18.8x
—
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-5.1x
S&P 500
24.4x
-121%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
-124%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.2x
—
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
20.7x
—
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
0.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-70%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+35%
5Y Avg
0.5x
+109%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | NIO | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg NIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 18.8x | 16.3x | — |
| Trailing PE | -5.1x | 24.4x-121% | 21.2x-124% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.2x | 12.2x | — |
| Price/FCF | — | 20.7x | 15.6x | — |
| Price/Sales | 0.9x | 3.1x-70% | 0.7x+35% | 0.5x+109% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 2.17% | — |
NIO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 2 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNIO Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for NIO are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$69.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+30.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
10.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-32.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-35.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-10.90
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$16.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-23.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-52.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-23.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$26.0B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$210M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-270.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
2.4B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageNIO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Market Volatility
NIO stock shows a dynamic price pattern with potential future volatility across bull, base, and bear scenarios.
High Risk
Economic Conditions
Broader economic conditions can significantly impact NIO's stock price and revenue performance.
Medium
Competitive Dynamics
NIO faces intense competition in the premium electric vehicle segment, which could affect its market share.
Medium
Sector Trends
Trends in the Consumer Cyclical sector may influence NIO's growth and profitability.
Lower
Revenue Performance
Fluctuations in revenue performance could lead to adjustments in stock price targets.
Lower
Earnings Growth
Variability in earnings growth may impact investor sentiment and stock forecasts.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NIO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Premium EV market leader
NIO is a leading electric vehicle maker targeting the premium segment with smart, high-performance vehicles.
User Enterprise vision
NIO aims to be the first 'User Enterprise' in the world, focusing on customer-centric innovation and experience.
Multi-brand growth strategy
NIO is executing a multi-brand growth strategy, including expansion into ONVO and FIREFLY, driving optimism.
Battery-swapping technology
NIO's advanced battery-swapping technology provides a competitive edge in infrastructure and scalability.
Strong investor backing
NIO benefits from strong investor support, bolstering confidence in its long-term growth potential.
Innovative vehicle technology
NIO offers unmatched driving sensations with drive-by-wire chassis, active suspension, and steer-by-wire technology.
Scale and infrastructure execution
Early optimism around NIO's scale and infrastructure plays out as the company continues to expand.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NIO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$5.02
52W Range Position
36%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$3.34
+50.3% from the low
52-Week High
$8.02
-37.4% from the high
1 Month
-14.77%
3 Month
-13.75%
YTD
-2.3%
1 Year
+46.8%
3Y CAGR
-18.7%
5Y CAGR
-36.0%
10Y CAGR
-2.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NIO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs 13.1x median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
+22.5%
vs +8.2% median
+175% above peer median
Net Margin
-35.0%
vs 1.0% median
-3578% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NIO NIO NIO Inc. | $11.8B | — | +22.5% | -35.0% | Buy | +30.3% |
LI LI Li Auto Inc. | $13.3B | 17.7x | +12.8% | 1.0% | Hold | +32.6% |
XPE XPEV XPeng Inc. | $12.5B | — | +23.2% | -7.1% | Buy | +63.1% |
TSL TSLA Tesla, Inc. | $1.50T | 212.2x | +8.2% | 4.0% | Hold | +12.5% |
GM GM General Motors Company | $71.5B | 6.2x | +1.7% | 1.4% | Buy | +18.3% |
F F Ford Motor Company | $55.0B | 8.4x | +2.0% | -3.2% | Hold | +5.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsNIO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is NIO Inc. (NIO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
NIO Inc. (NIO) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 24 analysts covering the stock, 12 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $7, implying +30.3% from the current price of $5.
02What is the NIO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NIO is $7 based on 24 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $7 (+39.4% from today), and the low-end target is $6 (+19.5%).
03Is NIO Inc. (NIO) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for NIO is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
04What are the main risks for NIO Inc. (NIO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NIO in 2026 are: (1) Market Volatility — NIO stock shows a dynamic price pattern with potential future volatility across bull, base, and bear scenarios. (2) Economic Conditions — Broader economic conditions can significantly impact NIO's stock price and revenue performance. (3) Competitive Dynamics — NIO faces intense competition in the premium electric vehicle segment, which could affect its market share. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is NIO Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NIO will report consensus revenue of $85.0B (+22.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $-6.37 (+41.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $107.0B in revenue.
06When does NIO Inc. (NIO) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for NIO is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does NIO Inc. generate?
NIO Inc. (NIO) had a free cash outflow of $16.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 23.8%. NIO returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).