Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing NIO more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
NIO Inc. (NIO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
24
analysts
12 bullish · 2 bearish · 24 covering NIO
Strong Buy
0
Buy
12
Hold
10
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$6
+9.3% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
24
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $12.3B
NIO price targets
Three scenarios for where NIO stock could go
Current
~$6
Confidence
34 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
NIO Inc.
NIO · NYSEConsumer CyclicalAuto - ManufacturersDecember year-end
NIO is a Chinese premium electric vehicle manufacturer that designs, develops, and sells smart electric cars along with a comprehensive ecosystem of charging and service solutions. The company generates revenue primarily from vehicle sales—including SUVs and sedans—and secondarily from its innovative battery-as-a-service (BaaS) subscription model and energy solutions like its unique battery swap stations. NIO's key competitive advantage lies in its premium brand positioning, integrated user ecosystem—featuring its exclusive NIO Houses and mobile app community—and its pioneering battery swap technology that addresses range anxiety through rapid battery replacement.
Market Cap
$12.3B
Revenue TTM
$69.4B
Net Income TTM
-$24.3B
Net Margin
-35.0%
NIO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
8%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-4.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$-0.32/$-0.31
Revenue
$2.7B/$2.7B
Q3 2025
EPS
$-0.32/$-0.31
Revenue
$2.7B/$2.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.21/$-0.22
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.01/$-0.05
Revenue
$5.0B/$4.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $-0.32/$-0.31 | -3.9% | $2.7B/$2.7B | -3.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $-0.32/$-0.31 | -3.9% | $2.7B/$2.7B | -3.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.21/$-0.22 | +5.5% | $3.1B/$3.1B | -1.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.01/$-0.05 | +120.0% | $5.0B/$4.8B | +3.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$101.1B
+45.7% YoY
FY2
$122.3B
+20.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-9.81
+10.0% YoY
FY2
$-11.70
-19.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$16.5B
FCF Margin: -23.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
NIO beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
NIO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $65.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Vehicle sales
88.6%
+18.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Vehicle sales is the largest disclosed segment at 88.6% of FY 2024 revenue, up 18.2% YoY.
NIO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $37 — implies +522.1% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
522.1%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NIO
-3.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
115% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
NIO
-3.6x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
119% discount
vs NIO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-3.6x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
19.1x
—
Consumer Cyclical
15.1x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-3.6x
S&P 500
25.1x
-115%
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
-119%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.91x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.2x
—
Consumer Cyclical
11.3x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.1x
—
Consumer Cyclical
14.6x
—
5Y Avg
70.0x
—
Price/Sales
1.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-59%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+79%
5Y Avg
1.1x
+13%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.23%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | NIO | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg NIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 19.1x | 15.1x | — |
| Trailing PE | -3.6x | 25.1x-115% | 19.3x-119% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 0.91x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.2x | 11.3x | — |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.1x | 14.6x | 70.0x |
| Price/Sales | 1.3x | 3.1x-59% | 0.7x+79% | 1.1x+13% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 2.23% | — |
NIO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 2 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNIO Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for NIO are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$69.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+30.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
10.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-32.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-35.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-10.90
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$16.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-23.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-55.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-23.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$19.3B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$14.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-270.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
2.1B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageNIO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Profitability and Cash Burn
NIO has not consistently achieved profitability, with analysts projecting it may not reach breakeven until fiscal years 2027-2028. The company's significant investments in R&D and global expansion contribute to substantial cash burn, raising concerns about its long-term financial viability.
High Risk
Debt and Financing
NIO carries a substantial debt load that could worsen with rising interest rates. The company's reliance on external funding poses risks of equity dilution, which may decrease the value of existing shares.
High Risk
Intense Market Competition
The electric vehicle market is highly competitive, with established players like Tesla and BYD, as well as emerging competitors such as Li Auto and XPeng. NIO faces pressure from these competitors who are scaling faster and cutting prices aggressively, which could impact its market position.
High Risk
Government Policies and Subsidies
NIO's business is heavily influenced by government regulations and subsidies for electric vehicles. A reduction or elimination of these subsidies, particularly in China, could significantly decrease demand for NIO's vehicles.
Medium
Declining Margins
Intense price competition in the EV market has led to declining profit margins for NIO. The company's refusal to lower prices significantly has resulted in a lagging market share compared to competitors.
Medium
Supply Chain Disruptions
NIO relies on a complex global supply chain for critical components like semiconductors and batteries. Disruptions in this supply chain, including shortages or price volatility of raw materials, can significantly impact production.
Medium
US-China Relations
Deteriorating relations between the US and China could lead to trade restrictions that impact NIO's supply chain and exports. This geopolitical tension poses risks for US investors in Chinese stocks, including potential delisting threats.
Lower
Technological Advancements
The EV industry is characterized by rapid technological advancements, requiring NIO to continuously invest in R&D to keep pace with developments in battery technology and autonomous driving. Failure to innovate could hinder its competitive edge.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NIO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Sales Growth
NIO's EV sales have shown significant year-over-year increases, with deliveries rising by 76.3% in November 2025. This accelerating demand positions NIO well for future gains.
Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) Model
NIO's BaaS model is considered a 'secret weapon' and a key differentiator. It transforms the most expensive EV component into a recurring revenue stream, with over 550,000 subscribers and a 70% market share in battery swapping.
Profitability and Financial Improvement
NIO achieved its first-ever profitable quarter in Q4 2025, outperforming rivals like Li Auto. Analysts project NIO to become profitable within three years, with strong earnings and EPS growth forecasts.
Product Pipeline and Market Expansion
NIO has a robust pipeline of upcoming models, including the flagship ES9 SUV and the Onvo L80, which are expected to attract buyers across various segments. The company is also looking to expand into the U.S. market and develop EVs that appeal to middle-income consumers.
Analyst Optimism
While analyst sentiment is mixed, a significant portion recommend buying NIO stock. Price targets for 2026 range from $6.69 to $8.50, with some analysts projecting much higher figures by 2030.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NIO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$5.90
52W Range Position
55%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$3.34
+76.6% from the low
52-Week High
$8.02
-26.4% from the high
1 Month
-5.45%
3 Month
+25.53%
YTD
+14.8%
1 Year
+48.2%
3Y CAGR
-10.2%
5Y CAGR
-31.0%
10Y CAGR
-1.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NIO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs 9.4x median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
+45.7%
vs +5.0% median
+807% above peer median
Net Margin
-35.0%
vs 1.4% median
-2645% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NIO NIO NIO Inc. | $12.3B | — | +45.7% | -35.0% | Buy | +9.3% |
LI LI Li Auto Inc. | $35.7B | 11.4x | +26.2% | 3.6% | Buy | +12.5% |
XPE XPEV XPeng Inc. | $5.5B | — | +44.6% | -7.1% | Buy | +61.2% |
TSL TSLA Tesla, Inc. | $1.46T | 201.3x | +5.0% | 4.0% | Hold | +15.7% |
GM GM General Motors Company | $68.7B | 6.0x | +1.7% | 1.4% | Buy | +20.5% |
F F Ford Motor Company | $45.8B | 7.4x | +2.5% | -3.2% | Hold | +19.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsNIO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is NIO Inc. (NIO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
NIO Inc. (NIO) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 24 analysts covering the stock, 12 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $6, implying +9.3% from the current price of $6.
02What is the NIO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NIO is $6 based on 24 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $7 (+15.3% from today), and the low-end target is $6 (+3.4%).
03Is NIO Inc. (NIO) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for NIO is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
04What are the main risks for NIO Inc. (NIO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NIO in 2026 are: (1) Profitability and Cash Burn — NIO has not consistently achieved profitability, with analysts projecting it may not reach breakeven until fiscal years 2027-2028. (2) Debt and Financing — NIO carries a substantial debt load that could worsen with rising interest rates. (3) Intense Market Competition — The electric vehicle market is highly competitive, with established players like Tesla and BYD, as well as emerging competitors such as Li Auto and XPeng. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is NIO Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NIO will report consensus revenue of $101.1B (+45.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $-9.81 (+10.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $122.3B in revenue.
06When does NIO Inc. (NIO) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for NIO is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does NIO Inc. generate?
NIO Inc. (NIO) had a free cash outflow of $16.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 23.8%. NIO returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).