Upside case
Bull case
$105+119.1%
YUMC would need investors to value it at roughly 36x earnings — about 20x more generous than today's 17x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Yum China Holdings, Inc. (YUMC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
19
analysts
14 bullish · 0 bearish · 19 covering YUMC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
14
Hold
5
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$59
+22.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$34 – $105
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
19
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
16.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $16.9B
YUMC price targets
Three scenarios for where YUMC stock could go
Current
~$48
Confidence
59 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $48
Bear
$34
Base
$63
Bull
$105
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$63+31.6%
At 22x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$34-30.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 5x multiple contraction could push YUMC down roughly 30% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Yum China Holdings, Inc.
YUMC · NYSEConsumer CyclicalRestaurantsDecember year-end
Yum China is the largest restaurant company in China, operating and franchising Western and local food brands across the country. It generates revenue primarily from company-owned restaurant sales — with KFC contributing about 70% and Pizza Hut around 20% of total sales — plus franchise fees and royalties. Its key advantage is massive scale and brand recognition in China, with over 14,000 restaurants and deep local market expertise that foreign competitors struggle to match.
Market Cap
$16.9B
Revenue TTM
$12.1B
Net Income TTM
$946M
Net Margin
7.8%
YUMC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+8.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.58/$0.57
Revenue
$2.8B/$2.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.76/$0.74
Revenue
$3.2B/$3.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.40/$0.35
Revenue
$2.8B/$2.7B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.87/$0.87
Revenue
$3.3B/$3.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.58/$0.57 | +2.5% | $2.8B/$2.8B | -0.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.76/$0.74 | +2.3% | $3.2B/$3.2B | +0.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.40/$0.35 | +14.3% | $2.8B/$2.7B | +3.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.87/$0.87 | +0.0% | $3.3B/$3.2B | +1.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$12.7B
+5.4% YoY
FY2
$13.5B
+5.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.96
+10.6% YoY
FY2
$3.29
+11.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.1B
FCF Margin: 9.0%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
YUMC beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
YUMC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $12.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Food And Non Food Revenues From Sales
91.6%
+3.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Food And Non Food Revenues From Sales is the largest disclosed segment at 91.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 3.6% YoY.
YUMC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $59 — implies +21.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
21.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
YUMC
19.2x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
23% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
YUMC
19.2x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.4x
In line with benchmark
vs YUMC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
19.2x
vs
5Y Average
27.1x
29% discount
Forward PE
16.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
-13%
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
+10%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
19.2x
S&P 500
25.1x
-23%
Consumer Cyclical
19.4x
-1%
5Y Avg
27.1x
-29%
PEG Ratio
3.78x
S&P 500
1.70x
+123%
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
+311%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
9.8x
S&P 500
15.3x
-36%
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
-14%
5Y Avg
13.4x
-27%
Price/FCF
20.1x
S&P 500
21.4x
-6%
Consumer Cyclical
15.3x
+32%
5Y Avg
30.1x
-33%
Price/Sales
1.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
-54%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+96%
5Y Avg
1.9x
-23%
Dividend Yield
2.04%
S&P 500
1.90%
+8%
Consumer Cyclical
2.19%
-6%
5Y Avg
1.28%
+60%
| Metric | YUMC | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg YUMC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 16.6x | 19.1x-13% | 15.2x | — |
| Trailing PE | 19.2x | 25.1x-23% | 19.4x | 27.1x-29% |
| PEG Ratio | 3.78x | 1.70x+123% | 0.92x+311% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.8x | 15.3x-36% | 11.4x-14% | 13.4x-27% |
| Price/FCF | 20.1x | 21.4x | 15.3x+32% | 30.1x-33% |
| Price/Sales | 1.4x | 3.1x-54% | 0.7x+96% | 1.9x-23% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.04% | 1.90% | 2.19% | 1.28% |
YUMC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolYUMC Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
YUMC generates $1.1B in free cash flow at a 9.0% margin — 13.6% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 8.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$12.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+6.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
17.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
11.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
7.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.67
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
9.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
13.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$506M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.7× FCF
~1.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
15.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
8.8%
Dividend
2.0%
Buyback
6.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.1B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.98
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
38.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
351M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageYUMC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Chinese Economic Uncertainty
Yum China is significantly impacted by the economic recovery in China. A slower recovery could lead to reduced consumer spending, adversely affecting the company's growth prospects.
High Risk
Regulatory Changes
The dynamic regulatory landscape in China poses substantial risks to Yum China. Changes in laws regarding foreign investment, taxation, and food safety could materially affect operations and financial performance.
High Risk
Dependence on Chinese Market
Yum China's financial performance is heavily reliant on the Chinese market, making it vulnerable to local economic fluctuations and shifts in consumer preferences.
Medium
Competitive Pressure
Yum China operates in a highly competitive market with both domestic and international rivals. This competitive pressure can negatively impact profit margins and market share.
Medium
Rising Delivery Costs
Increased reliance on delivery channels has led to rising delivery costs, which could pressure profitability. The intense competition in the delivery business further complicates this issue.
Medium
Profit Margin Risks
Factors such as price competition and a higher delivery mix could weigh on Yum China's profitability. Analysts have expressed concerns about potential downside risks to profit margins.
Lower
Indemnification Liabilities
Yum China may face indemnification liabilities stemming from its separation from Yum! Brands, which could adversely affect its business and financial condition.
Lower
Taxation Risks
The company's reliance on dividends from Chinese subsidiaries is subject to a 10% withholding income tax, making it vulnerable to changes in tax regulations.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why YUMC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Expansion and Store Growth
Yum China has ambitious plans for expansion, aiming to exceed 20,000 stores by the end of fiscal year 2026, with plans to add over 1,900 new locations in the current period. This aggressive store opening strategy is a significant driver of expected sales growth.
Financial Performance
The company has demonstrated strong financial results, with recent reports showing revenue growth and improved operating margins. Yum China has achieved record-setting margins and positive same-store and system sales growth across its core brands.
Valuation
Several analyses suggest that YUMC stock is currently undervalued. Its P/E ratio is below its 5-year median and close to its 1-year low, indicating an attractive entry point for investors.
Brand Strength and Market Position
Yum China is the largest restaurant operator in China, with well-known brands like KFC and Pizza Hut. Their unique operational model, which allows significant autonomy to local leadership, enables effective adaptation to Chinese consumer preferences.
Shareholder Returns
The company has a shareholder-friendly cash management stance and cash-generative operations. They have announced share repurchase agreements and have a commitment to a 100% Free Cash Flow payout policy after FY27, which could appeal to income-focused investors.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
YUMC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$48.11
52W Range Position
38%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$41.69
+15.4% from the low
52-Week High
$58.39
-17.6% from the high
1 Month
+0.25%
3 Month
-16.33%
YTD
-0.1%
1 Year
+10.7%
3Y CAGR
-8.0%
5Y CAGR
-5.0%
10Y CAGR
+6.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
YUMC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
16.6x
vs 19.5x median
-15% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.4%
vs +7.0% median
-23% below peer median
Net Margin
7.8%
vs 10.0% median
-21% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YUM YUMC Yum China Holdings, Inc. | $16.9B | 16.6x | +5.4% | 7.8% | Buy | +22.7% |
MCD MCD McDonald's Corporation | $201.6B | 21.5x | +7.0% | 31.6% | Buy | +24.2% |
QSR QSR Restaurant Brands International Inc. | $27.4B | 19.5x | +7.5% | 10.0% | Buy | +5.8% |
YUM YUM Yum! Brands, Inc. | $43.5B | 23.3x | +7.8% | 20.5% | Hold | +10.9% |
WEN WEN The Wendy's Company | $1.3B | 12.1x | +1.9% | 8.4% | Hold | +11.2% |
JAC JACK Jack in the Box Inc. | $266M | 4.0x | -7.0% | -5.2% | Hold | +43.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
YUMC Dividend and Capital Return
YUMC returns capital mainly through $1.1B/year in buybacks (6.8% buyback yield), with a modest 2.04% dividend — combining for 8.8% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 5 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
8.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
6.8%
Dividend Yield
2.04%
Payout Ratio
38.0%
How YUMC Splits Its Return
Div 2.04%
Buyback 6.8%
Dividend 2.04%Buybacks 6.8%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.98
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
5Y
3Y Div CAGR
26.0%
5Y Div CAGR
32.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.1B
Estimated Shares Retired
24M
Approx. Share Reduction
6.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
351M
At 6.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.58 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.96 | +50.0% | 6.7% | 8.7% |
| 2024 | $0.64 | +23.1% | 6.6% | 8.0% |
| 2023 | $0.52 | +8.3% | 3.4% | 4.7% |
| 2022 | $0.48 | 0.0% | 2.0% | 2.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsYUMC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Yum China Holdings, Inc. (YUMC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Yum China Holdings, Inc. (YUMC) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 19 analysts covering the stock, 14 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $59, implying +22.7% from the current price of $48. The bear case scenario is $34 and the bull case is $105.
02What is the YUMC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for YUMC is $59 based on 19 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $64 (+32.3% from today), and the low-end target is $55 (+14.3%). The base case model target is $63.
03Is Yum China Holdings, Inc. (YUMC) stock overvalued in 2026?
YUMC trades at 16.6x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Yum China Holdings, Inc. (YUMC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for YUMC in 2026 are: (1) Chinese Economic Uncertainty — Yum China is significantly impacted by the economic recovery in China. (2) Regulatory Changes — The dynamic regulatory landscape in China poses substantial risks to Yum China. (3) Dependence on Chinese Market — Yum China's financial performance is heavily reliant on the Chinese market, making it vulnerable to local economic fluctuations and shifts in consumer preferences. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Yum China Holdings, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates YUMC will report consensus revenue of $12.7B (+5.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.96 (+10.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $13.5B in revenue.
06When does Yum China Holdings, Inc. (YUMC) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for YUMC is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Yum China Holdings, Inc. generate?
Yum China Holdings, Inc. (YUMC) generated $1.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 9.0%. YUMC returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.0% yield) and share repurchases ($1.1B TTM).