Upside case
Bull case
$285+1197.3%
ZTO would need investors to value it at roughly 20x earnings — about 19x more generous than today's 2x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
10
analysts
8 bullish · 0 bearish · 10 covering ZTO
Strong Buy
0
Buy
8
Hold
2
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$28
+28.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$136 – $285
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
10
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
1.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $17.4B
ZTO price targets
Three scenarios for where ZTO stock could go
Current
~$22
Confidence
60 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $22
Bear
$136
Base
$217
Bull
$285
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$217+884.5%
At 16x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$136+520.3%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push ZTO down roughly 520% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.
ZTO · NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsDecember year-end
ZTO Express is a leading Chinese express delivery company that operates a nationwide logistics network for e-commerce and traditional merchants. It generates revenue primarily from parcel delivery services — charging shippers per package — with additional income from value-added logistics services like warehousing and cross-border shipping. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive scale and highly efficient hub-and-spoke network, which drives industry-leading cost efficiency through automation and route optimization.
Market Cap
$17.4B
Revenue TTM
$46.3B
Net Income TTM
$8.7B
Net Margin
18.8%
ZTO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.35/$0.40
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.43/$0.44
Revenue
$1.7B/$2.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.47/$0.45
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.43/$0.45
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.35/$0.40 | -12.4% | $1.6B/$1.7B | -2.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.43/$0.44 | -2.8% | $1.7B/$2.0B | -16.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.47/$0.45 | +4.9% | $2.1B/$2.1B | +1.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.43/$0.45 | -3.5% | $1.9B/$1.8B | +4.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$53.1B
+14.6% YoY
FY2
$60.4B
+13.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$13.23
+26.3% YoY
FY2
$15.32
+15.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.3B
FCF Margin: 5.0%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
ZTO beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
ZTO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $49.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Express delivery services
93.1%
+11.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Express delivery services is the largest disclosed segment at 93.1% of FY 2025 revenue, up 11.7% YoY.
ZTO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $378 — implies +1617.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
1617.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ZTO
13.6x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
44% discount
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
ZTO
13.6x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
47% discount
vs ZTO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
13.6x
vs
5Y Average
2.8x
+393% premium
Forward PE
1.6x
S&P 500
18.8x
-92%
Industrials
21.2x
-93%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
13.6x
S&P 500
24.4x
-44%
Industrials
25.6x
-47%
5Y Avg
2.8x
+393%
PEG Ratio
0.91x
S&P 500
1.66x
-45%
Industrials
1.65x
-45%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
9.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
-38%
Industrials
13.9x
-32%
5Y Avg
1.8x
+422%
Price/FCF
20.0x
S&P 500
20.7x
-3%
Industrials
20.0x
-0%
5Y Avg
3.5x
+473%
Price/Sales
2.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
-20%
Industrials
1.6x
+58%
5Y Avg
0.5x
+379%
Dividend Yield
3.08%
S&P 500
1.91%
+61%
Industrials
1.21%
+153%
5Y Avg
7.82%
-61%
| Metric | ZTO | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg ZTO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 1.6x | 18.8x-92% | 21.2x-93% | — |
| Trailing PE | 13.6x | 24.4x-44% | 25.6x-47% | 2.8x+393% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.91x | 1.66x-45% | 1.65x-45% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.4x | 15.2x-38% | 13.9x-32% | 1.8x+422% |
| Price/FCF | 20.0x | 20.7x | 20.0x | 3.5x+473% |
| Price/Sales | 2.5x | 3.1x-20% | 1.6x+58% | 0.5x+379% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.08% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 7.82% |
ZTO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolZTO Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
ZTO 10.4% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 4.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$46.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+14.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
27.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
24.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
18.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$10.47
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.3B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
5.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
10.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
9.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$10.0B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.4B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.6× FCF
~0.6 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
13.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.1%
Dividend
3.1%
Buyback
1.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.3B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.58
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
42.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
792M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageZTO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Margin compression
ZTO faces intense price wars in China, leading to lower gross profit despite higher revenues, as indicated in its 2025 guidance.
High Risk
Debt refinancing risk
ZTO issued low-coupon convertible debt to fund refinancing, which may strain financial flexibility if margins remain thin.
Medium
Asset disposal inefficiency
ZTO is selling a large batch of used vehicles, which may signal operational inefficiencies or excess capacity.
Medium
Competitive pressures
As one of China's largest couriers, ZTO operates in a highly competitive market with potential volume-driven margin erosion.
Lower
Currency risk
Being a Cayman-incorporated company, ZTO may face forex risks despite its primary operations in China.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ZTO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong parcel volume growth
ZTO handled 38.52 billion parcels in 2025, representing a 13.3% increase, indicating robust demand and market share gains.
Favorable profitability outlook
Q1 2026 earnings showed solid EPS performance amid stable demand, highlighting ZTO's ability to maintain profitability in China's express delivery market.
Upward earnings revisions
Analysts have raised earnings forecasts for 2026, citing stronger parcel volumes, healthier revenue in core express delivery, and solid operational execution.
Strategic alignment with national plans
ZTO's 2026 operating priorities align with the State Post Bureau's 2026 National Postal Work Conference and the '15th Five-Year Plan', ensuring regulatory and policy support.
Large-scale market presence
As one of the largest express delivery operators in the world by parcel volume, ZTO benefits from significant economies of scale and brand recognition.
Asset utilization efficiency
ZTO's disposal of 454 used vehicles indicates active management of its asset base, optimizing operational efficiency and cost structure.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ZTO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$22.00
52W Range Position
54%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$17.03
+29.2% from the low
52-Week High
$26.20
-16.0% from the high
1 Month
-6.58%
3 Month
-13.76%
YTD
+2.5%
1 Year
+29.0%
3Y CAGR
-5.2%
5Y CAGR
-5.3%
10Y CAGR
+2.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ZTO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
1.6x
vs 16.4x median
-90% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+14.6%
vs +3.4% median
+325% above peer median
Net Margin
18.8%
vs 4.9% median
+286% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZTO ZTO ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. | $17.4B | 1.6x | +14.6% | 18.8% | Buy | +28.9% |
GXO GXO GXO Logistics, Inc. | $5.6B | 15.9x | +6.8% | 0.9% | Buy | +46.5% |
XPO XPO XPO Logistics, Inc. | $23.4B | 40.5x | +7.4% | 4.2% | Buy | +10.3% |
UPS UPS United Parcel Service, Inc. | $89.2B | 14.8x | +1.1% | 5.9% | Hold | +9.7% |
FDX FDX FedEx Corporation | $77.8B | 16.4x | +2.3% | 4.9% | Buy | +5.2% |
ODF ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. | $46.1B | 40.5x | +3.4% | 18.6% | Hold | -1.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ZTO Dividend and Capital Return
ZTO returns 4.1% total yield, led by a 3.08% dividend. Buybacks add another 1.1%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
4.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.1%
Dividend Yield
3.08%
Payout Ratio
42.5%
How ZTO Splits Its Return
Div 3.08%
Buyback 1.1%
Dividend 3.08%Buybacks 1.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.58
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
37.5%
5Y Div CAGR
16.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.3B
Estimated Shares Retired
57M
Approx. Share Reduction
7.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
792M
At 7.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.39 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.65 | -33.0% | 7.3% | 29.2% |
| 2024 | $0.97 | +162.2% | 7.1% | 41.3% |
| 2023 | $0.37 | +48.0% | 5.6% | 17.2% |
| 2022 | $0.25 | 0.0% | 0.4% | 6.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsZTO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 10 analysts covering the stock, 8 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 2 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $28, implying +28.9% from the current price of $22. The bear case scenario is $136 and the bull case is $285.
02What is the ZTO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ZTO is $28 based on 10 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $30 (+36.8% from today), and the low-end target is $27 (+20.9%). The base case model target is $217.
03Is ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) stock overvalued in 2026?
ZTO trades at 1.6x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ZTO in 2026 are: (1) Margin compression — ZTO faces intense price wars in China, leading to lower gross profit despite higher revenues, as indicated in its 2025 guidance. (2) Debt refinancing risk — ZTO issued low-coupon convertible debt to fund refinancing, which may strain financial flexibility if margins remain thin. (3) Asset disposal inefficiency — ZTO is selling a large batch of used vehicles, which may signal operational inefficiencies or excess capacity. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ZTO will report consensus revenue of $53.1B (+14.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $13.23 (+26.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $60.4B in revenue.
06When does ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for ZTO is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. generate?
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) generated $2.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 5.0%. ZTO returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.1% yield) and share repurchases ($1.3B TTM).