Upside case
Bull case
$431+1565.9%
ZTO would need investors to value it at roughly 32x earnings — about 30x more generous than today's 2x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
10
analysts
8 bullish · 0 bearish · 10 covering ZTO
Strong Buy
0
Buy
8
Hold
2
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$27
+2.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$165 – $431
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
10
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
1.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $20.7B
ZTO price targets
Three scenarios for where ZTO stock could go
Current
~$26
Confidence
65 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $26
Bear
$165
Base
$238
Bull
$431
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$238+819.6%
At 18x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$165+536.1%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push ZTO down roughly 536% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.
ZTO · NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsDecember year-end
ZTO Express is a leading Chinese express delivery company that operates a nationwide logistics network for e-commerce and traditional merchants. It generates revenue primarily from parcel delivery services — charging shippers per package — with additional income from value-added logistics services like warehousing and cross-border shipping. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive scale and highly efficient hub-and-spoke network, which drives industry-leading cost efficiency through automation and route optimization.
Market Cap
$20.7B
Revenue TTM
$46.3B
Net Income TTM
$8.7B
Net Margin
18.8%
ZTO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.37/$0.40
Revenue
$1.5B/$1.7B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.35/$0.40
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.43/$0.44
Revenue
$1.7B/$2.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.47/$0.45
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.37/$0.40 | -7.3% | $1.5B/$1.7B | -10.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.35/$0.40 | -12.4% | $1.6B/$1.7B | -2.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.43/$0.44 | -2.8% | $1.7B/$2.0B | -16.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.47/$0.45 | +4.9% | $2.1B/$2.1B | +1.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$53.8B
+16.1% YoY
FY2
$60.9B
+13.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$12.51
+19.5% YoY
FY2
$14.43
+15.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.3B
FCF Margin: 5.0%
Next Earnings
May 19, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.44
Expected Revenue
$1.8B
ZTO beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
ZTO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $44.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Express delivery services
92.5%
+15.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Express delivery services is the largest disclosed segment at 92.5% of FY 2024 revenue, up 15.4% YoY.
ZTO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $241 — implies +859.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
859.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ZTO
16.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
35% discount
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
ZTO
16.5x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
36% discount
vs ZTO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
16.5x
vs
5Y Average
3.5x
+377% premium
Forward PE
1.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
-90%
Industrials
20.8x
-91%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
16.5x
S&P 500
25.2x
-35%
Industrials
25.9x
-36%
5Y Avg
3.5x
+377%
PEG Ratio
2.02x
S&P 500
1.75x
+16%
Industrials
1.59x
+27%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
9.8x
S&P 500
15.3x
-36%
Industrials
13.9x
-30%
5Y Avg
1.9x
+425%
Price/FCF
25.5x
S&P 500
21.3x
+20%
Industrials
20.6x
+24%
5Y Avg
3.7x
+592%
Price/Sales
3.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+2%
Industrials
1.6x
+100%
5Y Avg
0.6x
+407%
Dividend Yield
3.79%
S&P 500
1.88%
+102%
Industrials
1.24%
+206%
5Y Avg
7.64%
-50%
| Metric | ZTO | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg ZTO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 1.9x | 19.1x-90% | 20.8x-91% | — |
| Trailing PE | 16.5x | 25.2x-35% | 25.9x-36% | 3.5x+377% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.02x | 1.75x+16% | 1.59x+27% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.8x | 15.3x-36% | 13.9x-30% | 1.9x+425% |
| Price/FCF | 25.5x | 21.3x+20% | 20.6x+24% | 3.7x+592% |
| Price/Sales | 3.2x | 3.1x | 1.6x+100% | 0.6x+407% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.79% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 7.64% |
ZTO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolZTO Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
ZTO 13.6% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 4.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$46.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+14.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
27.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
24.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
18.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$10.47
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.3B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
5.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
13.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
9.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$13.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.9B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.7× FCF
~1.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
13.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.6%
Dividend
3.8%
Buyback
0.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.2B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$6.69
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
63.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
838M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageZTO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Reliance on E-commerce Platforms
ZTO's business is heavily dependent on major e-commerce platforms in China. Changes in these platforms' policies or a shift in their preferred logistics partners could significantly affect ZTO's volume and revenue.
High Risk
Allegations of Financial Misconduct
ZTO has faced allegations of falsifying financial metrics, underreporting revenues, and overstating profits, leading to investigations and potential class-action lawsuits. Although an independent investigation concluded these allegations were unsubstantiated, such claims can impact investor confidence.
High Risk
Chinese Regulatory Environment
ZTO operates under Chinese regulations, which can change and impact its business. Potential regulatory tightening on courier protections and fair pricing could significantly affect ZTO's operational capabilities.
Medium
Intense Competition
The Chinese express delivery market is highly competitive, with players like SF Express, YTO, and JD Logistics. Competitors may engage in price wars to gain market share, putting pressure on ZTO's margins.
Medium
Rising Costs
Increasing fuel prices directly impact transportation costs, which constitute a significant portion of ZTO's delivery expenses. Labor costs are also rising due to wage reforms and increased social security standards for couriers.
Medium
Data and Cybersecurity Risks
Evolving data and cybersecurity regulations in China pose risks to companies handling large amounts of data. Compliance with these regulations is crucial to avoid potential legal and financial repercussions.
Lower
Macroeconomic Headwinds
Broader economic uncertainties in China can affect consumer spending and, consequently, demand for delivery services. A slowdown in the economy could hinder ZTO's revenue growth.
Lower
Shift to Service Differentiation
The market is moving from price-driven competition towards service differentiation, ESG compliance, and cross-border logistics. ZTO needs to adapt to these evolving demands to maintain its competitive edge.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ZTO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Market Leadership and Growth
ZTO is a leading express delivery company in China, holding the #1 market share with a significant parcel volume. The company is expected to continue growing its parcel volume, outpacing the industry average, benefiting from the ongoing growth in online retail.
Improving Unit Economics and Efficiency
ZTO is investing in automation, AI, and network scale to improve unit economics. The company demonstrates strong operational efficiency with industry-leading margins, contributing to its competitive advantage.
Financial Health and Profitability
The company exhibits strong profitability, with healthy operating and net income margins. ZTO also maintains a low debt-to-equity ratio, indicating sound financial health and strong operating cash flow.
Shareholder Returns Commitment
ZTO has a new capital allocation framework that involves returning at least 50% of its adjusted net income to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. This commitment to shareholder returns can be a positive catalyst for the stock.
Industry Tailwinds in Logistics
The Chinese logistics sector is undergoing rationalization, with sub-scale players exiting the market, allowing incumbents like ZTO to gain market share. Regulatory changes and a more accommodating operating environment in China's logistics sector also support ZTO's prospects.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ZTO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$25.88
52W Range Position
97%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$16.68
+55.2% from the low
52-Week High
$26.20
-1.2% from the high
1 Month
+3.73%
3 Month
+7.43%
YTD
+20.6%
1 Year
+35.1%
3Y CAGR
-2.9%
5Y CAGR
-4.0%
10Y CAGR
+4.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ZTO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
1.9x
vs 19.1x median
-90% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+16.1%
vs +1.3% median
+1180% above peer median
Net Margin
18.8%
vs 4.9% median
+286% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZTO ZTO ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. | $20.7B | 1.9x | +16.1% | 18.8% | Buy | +2.8% |
GXO GXO GXO Logistics, Inc. | $5.7B | 16.6x | +21.3% | 0.9% | Buy | +45.7% |
XPO XPO XPO Logistics, Inc. | $24.8B | 44.9x | +3.3% | 4.2% | Buy | -1.2% |
UPS UPS United Parcel Service, Inc. | $84.9B | 14.1x | +0.0% | 5.9% | Hold | +15.4% |
FDX FDX FedEx Corporation | $88.7B | 19.1x | +1.3% | 4.9% | Buy | -3.4% |
ODF ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. | $41.8B | 38.2x | +0.3% | 18.6% | Hold | +3.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ZTO Dividend and Capital Return
ZTO returns 4.6% total yield, led by a 3.79% dividend. Buybacks add another 0.8%.
Dividend WatchFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
4.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.8%
Dividend Yield
3.79%
Payout Ratio
63.6%
How ZTO Splits Its Return
Div 3.79%
Dividend 3.79%Buybacks 0.8%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$6.69
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
37.5%
5Y Div CAGR
17.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.2B
Estimated Shares Retired
45M
Approx. Share Reduction
5.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
838M
At 5.3%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.38 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.65 | -33.0% | — | — |
| 2024 | $0.97 | +162.2% | 7.1% | 41.3% |
| 2023 | $0.37 | +48.0% | 5.6% | 17.2% |
| 2022 | $0.25 | 0.0% | 0.4% | 6.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsZTO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 10 analysts covering the stock, 8 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 2 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $27, implying +2.8% from the current price of $26. The bear case scenario is $165 and the bull case is $431.
02What is the ZTO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ZTO is $27 based on 10 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $27 (+2.8% from today), and the low-end target is $27 (+2.8%). The base case model target is $238.
03Is ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) stock overvalued in 2026?
ZTO trades at 1.9x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ZTO in 2026 are: (1) Reliance on E-commerce Platforms — ZTO's business is heavily dependent on major e-commerce platforms in China. (2) Allegations of Financial Misconduct — ZTO has faced allegations of falsifying financial metrics, underreporting revenues, and overstating profits, leading to investigations and potential class-action lawsuits. (3) Chinese Regulatory Environment — ZTO operates under Chinese regulations, which can change and impact its business. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ZTO will report consensus revenue of $53.8B (+16.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $12.51 (+19.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $60.9B in revenue.
06When does ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) report its next earnings?
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-19. Consensus expects EPS of $0.44 and revenue of $1.8B. Over recent quarters, ZTO has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. generate?
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) generated $2.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 5.0%. ZTO returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.8% yield) and share repurchases ($1.2B TTM).