MODEL VERDICT
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $21.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $21.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $22.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $21.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $21.74 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $5.35 | -75.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $21.00 | -4.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $27.67 | +26.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $10.51 | -52.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $25.93 | +18.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $12.38 | -43.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $22.53 | +2.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $23.77 | +8.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $27.52 | +25.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $11.34 | -48.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $18.08 | -17.6% | 100% | 79 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $17 | $20 | $23 | $25 | $28 |
| Conservative (7%) | $17 | $20 | $23 | $26 | $29 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $18 | $21 | $24 | $27 | $30 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $19 | $22 | $25 | $28 | $31 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 8.45 | 6.93 | 4.31 | 14.00 | 3.91 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.01 | 6.93 | 4.17 | 13.41 | 3.60 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.96 | 7.74 | 3.19 | 19.04 | 6.34 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates ACAD's fair value at $18.08 vs the current price of $21.95, implying -17.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $18.08 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.24 (P10) to $20.40 (P90), with a median of $17.80.
ACAD's current P/E of 16.1x compares to the industry median of 20.3x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -20.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Discount.
37 analysts cover ACAD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $34.78 (range: $29.00 — $40.00), implying +58.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (26), Hold (10), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ACAD.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.