MODEL VERDICT
PTC Therapeutics, Inc. (PTCT) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $68.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $70.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $69.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $72.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $77.53 | Pending | -4.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 47 industry peers | $204.00 | +199.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 48 industry peers | $169.64 | +148.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 46 industry peers | $249.60 | +266.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 130 industry peers | $200.58 | +194.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 130 industry peers | $205.42 | +201.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 47 industry peers | $206.53 | +202.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $212.25 | +211.3% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $40 | $57 | $73 | $89 | $105 |
| Conservative (7%) | $41 | $58 | $75 | $91 | $108 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $43 | $60 | $77 | $94 | $111 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $44 | $62 | $79 | $97 | $115 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/B Ratio | 654.97 | 8.36 | 4.76 | 1951.78 | 1123.08 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.61 | 4.30 | 2.20 | 10.58 | 3.08 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 13 valuation metrics, the model estimates PTCT's fair value at $212.25 vs the current price of $68.19, implying +211.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $212.25 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $128.95 (P10) to $282.33 (P90), with a median of $203.00.
PTCT's current P/E of 8.8x compares to the industry median of 21.8x (48 peers in the group). This represents a -59.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
26 analysts cover PTCT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $84.50 (range: $50.00 — $120.00), implying +23.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (8), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PTCT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.