MODEL VERDICT
ADMA Biologics, Inc. (ADMA) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $15.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $16.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $16.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $16.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $17.95 | Below threshold | -8.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 57 analyst estimates | $24.42 | +56.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 47 industry peers | $14.35 | -7.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 48 industry peers | $17.66 | +13.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 46 industry peers | $11.96 | -23.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 46 industry peers | $12.35 | -20.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 48 industry peers | $10.57 | -32.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 130 industry peers | $19.41 | +24.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 130 industry peers | $20.47 | +31.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 47 industry peers | $21.50 | +38.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 47 industry peers | $12.52 | -19.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $18.34 | +17.8% | 100% | 81 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $13 | $14 | $16 | $18 | $19 |
| Conservative (7%) | $13 | $15 | $16 | $18 | $20 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $13 | $15 | $17 | $19 | $20 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $14 | $16 | $17 | $19 | $21 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 6.93 | 7.72 | 1.45 | 12.10 | 4.20 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.94 | 5.46 | 1.39 | 11.96 | 3.70 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.55 | 4.98 | 2.43 | 9.79 | 2.49 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates ADMA's fair value at $18.34 vs the current price of $15.57, implying +17.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $18.34 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $12.14 (P10) to $22.03 (P90), with a median of $16.95.
ADMA's current P/E of 19.2x compares to the industry median of 21.8x (48 peers in the group). This represents a -11.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
9 analysts cover ADMA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $16.00 (range: $14.00 — $18.00), implying +2.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (8), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ADMA.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.