MODEL VERDICT
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $18.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $16.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $16.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $15.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $15.10 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $20.65 | +11.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $29.37 | +59.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $43.03 | +133.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $0.01 | -99.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $29.38 | +59.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $16.84 | -8.7% | 100% | 64 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 289.96 | 96.06 | 10.95 | 762.86 | 411.75 |
| P/FFO | 54.77 | 27.70 | 14.78 | 148.90 | 63.55 |
| P/TBV | 2.57 | 2.25 | 1.37 | 4.20 | 1.02 |
| P/AFFO | 187.41 | 51.19 | 24.18 | 623.11 | 290.77 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.46 | 1.24 | 0.55 | 3.11 | 0.84 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 990.89 | 1.14 | 0.50 | 6929.58 | 2618.72 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 13 valuation metrics, the model estimates ADTN's fair value at $16.84 vs the current price of $18.45, implying -8.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 64/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $16.84 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $11.20 (P10) to $29.95 (P90), with a median of $20.01.
ADTN's current P/E of -32.4x compares to the industry median of 67.1x (2 peers in the group). This represents a -148.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
25 analysts cover ADTN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $18.00 (range: $18.00 — $18.00), implying -2.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (10), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 64/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ADTN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.