Afya Limited (AFYA)
Estimates & Forecasts•Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
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AFYA Price Targets Summary| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | $374M | $386M | $632M | $766M | $894M | $1.1B | $1.2B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $4.15 | $4.27 | $6.93 | $16.23 | $18.81 | $22.48 | $24.83 |
| YoY Growth | — | +3.4% | +63.5% | +21.3% | +16.7% | +20.3% | +11.2% |
| Net Margin | 16.0% | 13.4% | 19.1% | 17.5% | 17.1% | 17.5% | 17.3% |
USD · AFYA · Proprietary Model| Metric | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.3B | $4.4B | $5.2B | $6.2B | $6.9B |
| Net Income | $632M | $766M | $894M | $1.1B | $1.2B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $6.93 | $16.23 | $18.81 | $22.48 | $24.83 |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.0B | $1.2B | $1.4B | $1.6B | $1.8B |
Treat point estimates cautiously; use wider scenario ranges and position sizing discipline.
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying AFYA stock.
Afya Limited's projected EPS for the next fiscal year is $16.23. This estimate blends our quantitative model with Wall Street analyst consensus and carries a confidence score of 53/100. The model factors in revenue trajectory, margin path, and share buyback trends to arrive at this figure.
Our scenario-based model produces three price targets for Afya Limited: Bear case $144, Base case $191, and Bull case $309. These targets are derived by applying the median historical P/E ratio to forward EPS estimates under each growth scenario. They are not buy/sell recommendations.
Afya Limited's projected revenue growth for the next fiscal year is 20.4%, reaching approximately $4.4B in total revenue. Growth estimates are probability-weighted and blend analyst consensus with our CAGR extrapolation model. Outer years (FY+3, FY+4) fade toward industry median growth rates.
Accuracy depends on several measurable factors. Our model confidence score of 53/100 is computed from revenue predictability (25% weight), margin stability (20%), historical earnings beat rate (20%), data depth (15%), analyst coverage (10%), and model-consensus agreement (10%). Stable margins provide a consistent baseline. No forecast model is perfect — always cross-reference with your own analysis.
Afya Limited's forward operating margin is estimated at 30.8% for the next fiscal year. The margin trend is currently "stable". Our model tracks margin mean-reversion patterns and adjusts for sector-specific cost dynamics. Operating leverage is a key driver of EPS growth beyond top-line revenue expansion.
The v2 model uses a multi-step process: (1) Revenue is projected via blended CAGR with probability weighting, (2) Operating and net margins follow a mean-reversion path calibrated to sector norms, (3) EPS is derived from net income divided by projected diluted shares (accounting for buyback trends), (4) For FY+1 and FY+2, estimates are blended with analyst consensus based on coverage depth, (5) Price targets apply median historical P/E to forward EPS under bear/base/bull growth scenarios. All inputs are from public filings and third-party data providers.
The bear case ($144) assumes P25 revenue growth, worst-case margins, and multiple compression. Key risks include: unexpected margin contraction, revenue deceleration below model floor, regulatory headwinds, macro deterioration, or competitive disruption. A confidence score below 60 suggests higher estimate volatility. Always size positions according to the full scenario range, not just the base case.
Our model is above Wall Street consensus with a 69.2% gap. For FY+1, analyst estimates blend with our model at 15% analyst weight. By FY+3 and FY+4, estimates are purely model-driven as analyst coverage thins out at longer horizons.