Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$52.24
→
Intrinsic$35.99
-31%
$20.12$35.99$66.11
Market implies 33% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 25% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $52, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (33%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $20 → Bull $66. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $47 | $52 | $58 | $63 |
| 10% | $29 | $32 | $36 | $40 |
| 12% | $19 | $21 | $24 | $27 |
| 14% | $12 | $14 | $17 | $19 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($66) offers 27% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
Bear Case
- Bear case ($20) implies 61% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 33% growth expectations vs 25% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 31% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year FFO Projection
Year 1$229.78M
Year 2$287.23M
Year 3$359.03M
Year 4$448.79M
Year 5$560.99M
Terminal$8.25B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base FFO$183.82MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses FFO per NAREIT standards. See FAQ below for full methodology.