MODEL VERDICT
Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. (AKBA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $1.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $1.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $1.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $1.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $1.40 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $1.64 | +17.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $3.58 | +155.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $2.38 | +70.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $5.65 | +303.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $5.40 | +285.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $4.32 | +208.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $3.48 | +148.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $2.90 | +107.1% | 100% | 73 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/B Ratio | 8.28 | 5.07 | 1.57 | 20.17 | 8.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.59 | 1.75 | 0.36 | 2.50 | 0.71 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates AKBA's fair value at $2.90 vs the current price of $1.40, implying +107.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $2.90 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $2.49 (P10) to $3.70 (P90), with a median of $3.09.
AKBA's current P/E of -70.0x compares to the industry median of 24.2x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -388.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
11 analysts cover AKBA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $4.00 (range: $4.00 — $4.00), implying +185.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (3), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for AKBA.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.