MODEL VERDICT
Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc. (PTGX) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $92.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $82.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $81.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $83.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $80.22 | Below threshold | +3.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 57 analyst estimates | $92.54 | +0.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 46 industry peers | $23.97 | -74.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 48 industry peers | $22.88 | -75.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 47 industry peers | $25.10 | -72.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $62.58 | -32.0% | 100% | 62 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 4.16 | 3.72 | 2.28 | 9.03 | 2.40 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.16 | 3.72 | 2.28 | 9.03 | 2.40 |
| P/S Ratio | 153.33 | 22.96 | 5.78 | 790.27 | 312.51 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 9 valuation metrics, the model estimates PTGX's fair value at $62.58 vs the current price of $92.08, implying -32.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 62/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $62.58 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $30.38 (P10) to $81.95 (P90), with a median of $55.94.
PTGX's current P/E of -44.9x compares to the industry median of 21.4x (48 peers in the group). This represents a -309.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
24 analysts cover PTGX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $111.75 (range: $108.00 — $117.00), implying +21.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (23), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 62/100, based on: data completeness (9), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PTGX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.