MODEL VERDICT
Embotelladora Andina S.A. (AKO-A) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $24.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $24.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $24.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $24.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $23.00 | Pending | +6.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 13 industry peers | $51695.99 | +212640.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 13 industry peers | $39493.22 | +162423.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $10687.67 | +43882.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 13 industry peers | $51030.55 | +209902.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $7564.14 | +31028.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 11 industry peers | $19383.64 | +79668.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 14 industry peers | $47281.75 | +194475.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 14 industry peers | $46874.68 | +192799.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 13 industry peers | $39363.31 | +161888.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $10448.94 | +42899.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $22174.82 | +91154.4% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $15103 | $18123 | $21144 | $24164 | $27185 |
| Conservative (5%) | $15485 | $18582 | $21679 | $24776 | $27873 |
| Base Case (6.0%) | $15633 | $18759 | $21886 | $25012 | $28139 |
| Bull Case (8%) | $15942 | $19131 | $22319 | $25508 | $28696 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| EV/EBIT | 2.56 | 2.47 | 2.18 | 3.24 | 0.40 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.83 | 1.87 | 1.58 | 2.00 | 0.16 |
| P/FCF | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| P/FFO | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/TBV | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| P/AFFO | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Div Yield | 59.37 | 45.32 | 13.48 | 160.11 | 48.38 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 25 valuation metrics, the model estimates AKO-A's fair value at $22174.82 vs the current price of $24.30, implying +91154.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $22174.82 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $17462.00 (P10) to $26273.55 (P90), with a median of $21843.68.
AKO-A's current P/E of 14.4x compares to the industry median of 26.8x (13 peers in the group). This represents a -46.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 0.0x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
2 analysts cover AKO-A with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: AKO-A trades at the 770th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (0.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AKO-A's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (6.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2440.0% to approximately $30. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.