MODEL VERDICT
Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $39.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $42.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $40.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $42.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $45.72 | Below threshold | -8.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 41 industry peers | $26.50 | -32.8% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 44 industry peers | $82.34 | +108.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 42 bank peers | $76.41 | +93.7% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 39 industry peers | $27.72 | -29.7% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 41 analyst estimates | $44.12 | +11.9% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $45.91 | +16.4% | 100% | 77 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $31 | $36 | $41 | $46 | $51 |
| Conservative (5%) | $32 | $37 | $42 | $47 | $52 |
| Base Case (-3.8%) | $30 | $34 | $39 | $43 | $48 |
| Bull Case (-5%) | $29 | $34 | $38 | $43 | $47 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.68 | 12.38 | 4.86 | 20.01 | 6.17 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.38 | 22.38 | 7.66 | 24.71 | 7.36 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.54 | 9.88 | 5.77 | 13.71 | 3.22 |
| P/FCF | 116.70 | 8.19 | 2.87 | 447.53 | 220.58 |
| P/FFO | 4.90 | 4.88 | 2.56 | 8.06 | 1.77 |
| P/TBV | 0.87 | 0.87 | 0.65 | 1.08 | 0.13 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.61 | 1.02 | 0.13 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.01 | 1.05 | 0.64 | 1.63 | 0.37 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates ALLY's fair value at $45.91 vs the current price of $39.44, implying +16.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $45.91 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $36.68 (P10) to $57.44 (P90), with a median of $46.55.
ALLY's current P/E of 16.6x compares to the industry median of 11.2x (41 peers in the group). This represents a +48.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.7x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
38 analysts cover ALLY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $51.40 (range: $42.00 — $57.00), implying +30.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (26), Hold (11), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ALLY trades at the 6340th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (11.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ALLY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1600.0% to approximately $46. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.