Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM)
Valuation Overview•Is Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a peer premium multiple, but this multiple is justified by a strong intrinsic cash flow value.
Moderate quality score of 70/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though solvency presents a headwind.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. However, capital return yields remain modest, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
ALRM demonstrates strong business quality with robust profitability and healthy margins. However, the balance sheet carries elevated leverage, requiring careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (6.3% 3Y CAGR) paired with highly explosive earnings growth (32.0% EPS 3Y CAGR). Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 13.3%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $265.2M | +7.6% | +6.3% | +10.3% | +17.1% | |
| EBITDA | $44.5M | — | +24.7% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $23.6M | +6.8% | +33.0% | — | +27.4% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.47 | +7.4% | +32.0% | +10.0% | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $49.7M | -30.2% | +69.3% | +10.9% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 63.4% | 63.8% | 62.0% | 63.0% |
| Operating Margin | 13.3% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 8.4% |
| Net Margin | 12.4% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 9.0% |
| FCF Margin | 16.2% | 16.1% | 12.7% | 11.0% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.60 | $0.65 | +8.3% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.66 | $0.72 | +9.1% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.62 | $0.76 | +22.6% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.52 | $0.60 | +15.4% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.48 | $0.54 | +12.5% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.55 | $0.58 | +5.5% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.49 | $0.62 | +26.5% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.49 | $0.58 | +18.4% |
Total return is -21.2% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -46.2%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -13.4% | -22.7% | — |
| 1Y | -21.2% | -46.2% | — |
| 3YCAGR | -4.8% | -23.7% | — |
| 5YCAGR | -11.8% | -24.0% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +5.9% | -7.2% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) valuation, health, and returns.
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Slightly expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +56.6% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $69.52)
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $69.52 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $37.42 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $55.00 (implying +23.9% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 70/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 2.1 (grey zone), Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 12.2%.
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 1.9% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by +1.6% in the last 12 months.
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved +7.6% 1Y revenue growth and +7.4% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +6.3%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 19 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 100% of recent quarters with a 40-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +23.9% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. include: -28.8% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.81x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.