Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM)
DCF Valuation•Discounted Cash Flow intrinsic value with Bear, Base & Bull scenarios
Wide range: intrinsic value is highly sensitive to assumptions — use the scenario analysis to anchor your view.
The market is pricing in an extremely cautious outcome, assuming worse growth or tighter margins than our downside scenario.
Confidence reflects data quality and how far into the future most of the value sits. The main factors reducing it here are moderate reliance on terminal value and limited data coverage on some inputs.
Wide range: intrinsic value is highly sensitive to assumptions — use the scenario analysis to anchor your view.
Analyze the Bear, Base, and Bull case DCF scenarios. Compare how changes in revenue growth, operating margins, and wacc impact the final intrinsic value estimate and downside risk.
Why the values can still move a lot: DCF math is nonlinear, so even modest changes to growth, margins, discount rate, and terminal assumptions can swing present value sharply.
The forecast driving our intrinsic value estimate.
WACC
9.0%
Terminal Growth
3.0%
Revenue Growth (Y1-Y5)
9.3%
Operating Margin (Y1-Y5)
12.9%
Tax Rate
13.6%
D&A / Rev
5.0%
Capex / Rev
1.5%
NWC / Rev
12.0%
Shares
49.5M
Net Debt
$170.6M
Values shown in USD.
| Year | Revenue | Growth | EBIT | Op Margin | NOPAT | D&A | Capex | Delta WC | FCFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.2B | 11.7% | $131.3M | 11.3% | $113.4M | $58.0M | $17.1M | $14.6M | $139.8M |
| Year 2 | $1.3B | 10.1% | $156.1M | 12.2% | $134.9M | $63.9M | $19.2M | $14.1M | $165.4M |
| Year 3 | $1.4B | 9.2% | $182.2M | 13.1% | $157.4M | $69.7M | $21.4M | $14.1M | $191.7M |
| Year 4 | $1.5B | 8.2% | $209.3M | 13.9% | $180.9M | $75.5M | $23.7M | $13.7M | $218.9M |
| Year 5 | $1.6B | 7.3% | $227.8M | 14.1% | $196.8M | $81.0M | $25.9M | $13.1M | $238.8M |
| Year 6 | $1.7B | 6.3% | $245.6M | 14.3% | $212.2M | $86.1M | $28.0M | $12.2M | $258.0M |
| Year 7 | $1.8B | 5.3% | $262.4M | 14.5% | $226.7M | $90.6M | $30.1M | $11.0M | $276.2M |
| Year 8 | $1.9B | 4.6% | $266.6M | 14.1% | $230.3M | $94.8M | $32.0M | -$15.3M | $308.4M |
| Year 9 | $2.0B | 3.8% | $268.6M | 13.7% | $232.0M | $98.4M | $33.8M | -$18.6M | $315.1M |
| Year 10 | $2.0B | 3.0% | $268.3M | 13.3% | $231.8M | $101.3M | $35.4M | -$21.5M | $319.2M |
Same DCF model applied to every company. If ALRM's gap to fair value stands apart from peers, the case is stock-specific — not a sector-wide trend.
| Company | Peer Type | Mkt Cap | Price | Intrinsic Value | Upside / Premium | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALRMAlarm.com Holdings, Inc.You are here | Subject | — | $44.38 | $69.52 | +57% | Undervalued |
| Core | $1.4B | $13.06 | $10.05 | -23% | Overvalued | |
| Core | $4.8B | $31.91 | $20.37 | -36% | Overvalued | |
| Core | $15.8B | $65.42 | $189.21 | +189% | Undervalued | |
| Core | $218M | $10.51 | — | — | — | |
| Core | $684M | $26.97 | — | — | — | |
| Segment | $4.9B | $6.58 | $57.42 | +773% | Undervalued | |
| Segment | $1.3B | $37.39 | $16.52 | -56% | Overvalued |
Differences in intrinsic value reflect differences in each company's financial data and business model — not inconsistency in the methodology. Peer rows without DCF coverage show “—”.
Answers to common questions about ALRM's valuation and our methodology.
The base-case intrinsic value for ALRM is estimated at $69.52. This is calculated using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model that projects future cash flows and discounts them to today's present value.
Based on our DCF valuation, Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. appears undervalued. The stock is currently trading at $44.38, compared to our fair value estimate of $69.52.
Under our base-case scenario, ALRM has an implied 57% upside. In our bull-case scenario, the intrinsic value could be significantly higher if growth and margins exceed baseline expectations.
We apply a discount rate (WACC) of 9.0% to calculate the present value of ALRM's future cash flows. This rate reflects the perceived risk and cost of capital for the business.
The model assumes a consensus-driven baseline growth rate for the next 5 years, which gradually tapers down to a terminal growth rate of 3.0%. The exact rates flex depending on whether you are viewing the bear, base, or bull scenario.
This valuation projects future free cash flow (FCFF) and discounts them back to present value using a WACC. For enterprise models, we then adjust for net debt and divide by diluted shares to calculate the final equity value per share.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Intrinsic value estimates are model outputs under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.
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