Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) Price Target Analysis
Wall Street analyst price targets, ratings consensus & upside potential · Updated May 1, 2026
Current Price
$45.44
Price Target
$50.00
Target Range
$50.00 — $50.00
Analyst Rating
Buy
Forward P/E16.3x
Trailing P/E18.5x
Forward PEG1.64
Implied Growth+19.0%
Median Target$50.00
Analyst Spread0.0%
Price Forecast (1 Year)
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
Bear Case
$50
+10.0%
Consensus
$50
+10.0%
Bull Case
$50
+10.0%
Valuation Model TargetsConfidence: 77/100
Bear$15
Base$58
Bull$86
ALRM Price Target Analysis
Updated May 6, 2026As of May 6, 2026, Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $50.00, based on estimates from 19 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $45.44, this represents a potential upside of +10.0%. The company has a market capitalization of $2.26B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $50.00 to a high of $50.00, representing a 0% spread in expectations. The median target of $50.00 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 13 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,5 rating it Hold, and 1 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The positive sentiment balance indicates moderate optimism about the stock prospects.
From a valuation perspective, ALRM trades at a trailing P/E of 18.5x and forward P/E of 16.3x. The forward PEG ratio of 1.64 indicates reasonable valuation for growth. Analysts expect EPS to grow +19.0% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $57.88, with bear and bull scenarios of $14.97 and $86.08 respectively. Model confidence stands at 77/100, indicating high predictability in the company's fundamentals.
Investment Context: Price targets represent analyst expectations for the next 12 months and should be considered alongside your own research. Targets are based on analysts' assumptions about earnings growth, margins, and market conditions which may change. For sector-specific context, view other Technology stocks.
Analyst Sentiment Comparison
Industry Peer AnalysisAvg Peer Upside+11.3%
Avg Forward P/E15.8x
Peers with Coverage9 / 10
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ARLOArlo Technologies, Inc. | $1.5B | $14.57 | $17.50 | +20.1% | Buy | 18.1x | 10 |
 REZIResideo Technologies, Inc. | $6.2B | $41.10 | $40.00 | -2.7% | Buy | 13.3x | 7 |
 SSNCSS&C Technologies Holdings, Inc. | $16.8B | $69.52 | $94.20 | +35.5% | Buy | 10.1x | 24 |
 SPOKSpok Holdings, Inc. | $220M | $10.62 | $15.00 | +41.2% | Hold | 16.1x | 1 |
 NXRTNexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. | $758M | $29.85 | $27.00 | -9.5% | Hold | — | 10 |
 ADTADT Inc. | $5.2B | $6.98 | $8.97 | +28.5% | Buy | 7.6x | 17 |
 NSSCNapco Security Technologies, Inc. | $1.5B | $41.24 | $49.00 | +18.8% | Buy | 28.7x | 11 |
 DGLYDigital Ally, Inc. | $2M | $1.28 | — | — | — | — | — |
 CRNCCerence Inc. | $459M | $10.19 | $8.00 | -21.5% | Hold | 14.8x | 13 |
 QCOMQUALCOMM Incorporated | $203.1B | $192.66 | $175.00 | -9.2% | Hold | 17.9x | 69 |
Upside Potential Comparison
SPOKSSNCADTARLONSSCREZIQCOMNXRTSee ALRM's True Return
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Start ComparisonALRM — Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying ALRM stock.
What is the ALRM stock price target for 2026?
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) has a consensus 12-month price target of $50, implying 10.0% upside from $45.44. The 19 analysts covering ALRM see moderate appreciation potential.
Is ALRM a buy, sell, or hold?
ALRM has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 19 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is predominantly bullish, with 13 Buy/Strong Buy ratings. The consensus 12-month price target of $50 implies 10.0% upside from current levels.
Is ALRM stock overvalued or undervalued?
With a forward P/E of 16.3008x, ALRM trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $50 implies 10.0% appreciation, suggesting meaningful undervaluation.
How high can ALRM stock go?
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $50 for ALRM, while the most conservative target is $50. The consensus of $50 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $86 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
How many analysts cover ALRM stock?
ALRM is well covered by analysts, with 19 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 2 have Strong Buy ratings, 11 have Buy ratings, 5 recommend Hold, and 1 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
What is the ALRM stock forecast?
The 12-month ALRM stock forecast based on 19 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $50, with estimates ranging from $50 (bear case) to $50 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $58, with bear/bull scenarios of $15/$86.
What is ALRM's fair value based on fundamentals?
Our quantitative valuation model calculates ALRM's fair value at $58 (base case), with a bear case of $15 and bull case of $86. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 77/100.
What is ALRM's forward P/E ratio?
ALRM trades at a forward P/E ratio of 16.3x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 18.5x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Should I buy ALRM stock?
Wall Street analysts are optimistic on ALRM, with a "Buy" consensus rating and $50 price target (10.0% upside). 13 of 19 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Why do ALRM price targets vary so much?
ALRM analyst price targets range from $50 to $50, a 0% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $50 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $15-$86 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.