MODEL VERDICT
AlTi Global, Inc. (ALTI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $4.63 | CURRENT | -18.1% |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $4.38 | Pending | -13.9% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $4.60 | Pending | -16.3% |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $4.10 | Monitoring | -6.1% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $5.14 | Monitoring | -27.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book 2 industry peers | $20.58 | +344.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 2 bank peers | $3.04 | -34.3% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 2 industry peers | $3.92 | -15.3% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $48.92 | +956.7% | 100% | 45 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/B Ratio | 10.91 | 4.08 | 0.36 | 35.13 | 16.47 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.88 | 4.84 | 1.70 | 8.16 | 3.42 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 9 valuation metrics, the model estimates ALTI's fair value at $48.92 vs the current price of $4.63, implying +956.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 45/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $48.92 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $6.65 (P10) to $87.43 (P90), with a median of $34.87.
ALTI's current P/E of -3.6x compares to the industry median of 15.0x (1 peers in the group). This represents a -123.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
1 analysts cover ALTI with a consensus rating of Strong Buy. The consensus price target is $9.00 (range: $9.00 — $9.00), implying +94.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (0), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 45/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (10), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ALTI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.