MODEL VERDICT
Cannae Holdings, Inc. (CNNE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $13.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $13.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $13.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $13.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $12.46 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $6.23 | -54.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $4.26 | -68.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $7.03 | -48.6% | 100% | 48 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.64 | 1.92 | 0.44 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.94 | 0.90 | 0.62 | 1.76 | 0.40 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.32 | 2.54 | 2.10 | 6.49 | 1.56 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates CNNE's fair value at $7.03 vs the current price of $13.67, implying -48.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 48/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $7.03 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $4.73 (P10) to $10.11 (P90), with a median of $7.38.
CNNE's current P/E of -1.5x compares to the industry median of 17.8x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -108.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
5 analysts cover CNNE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $17.00 (range: $17.00 — $17.00), implying +24.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 48/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CNNE.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.