MODEL VERDICT
Amplitude, Inc. (AMPL) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $6.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $7.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $10.90 | Below threshold | -33.5% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $11.25 | Below threshold | -35.6% |
| Nov 12, 2025 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $11.04 | Below threshold | -34.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 121 analyst estimates | $2.31 | -63.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 114 industry peers | $2.68 | -57.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 115 industry peers | $3.90 | -38.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 133 industry peers | $11.27 | +77.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 135 industry peers | $9.79 | +54.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 115 industry peers | $2.70 | -57.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $4.37 | -31.1% | 100% | 57 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 8.53 | 5.00 | 4.66 | 19.46 | 7.29 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.25 | 4.81 | 4.41 | 18.98 | 7.16 |
| P/S Ratio | 12.55 | 5.52 | 4.37 | 34.78 | 14.83 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates AMPL's fair value at $4.37 vs the current price of $6.34, implying -31.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 57/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $4.37 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $3.23 (P10) to $6.08 (P90), with a median of $4.49.
AMPL's current P/E of -8.3x compares to the industry median of 29.5x (71 peers in the group). This represents a -128.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
11 analysts cover AMPL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $14.33 (range: $13.00 — $16.00), implying +126.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 57/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for AMPL.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.