MODEL VERDICT
Confluent, Inc. (CFLT) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $30.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $30.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $30.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $30.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $30.36 | Below threshold | +0.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 71 analyst estimates | $7.87 | -74.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 67 industry peers | $2.59 | -91.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 68 industry peers | $0.63 | -97.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $8.85 | -71.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 79 industry peers | $9.83 | -67.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 67 industry peers | $2.69 | -91.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $7.33 | -76.1% | 100% | 63 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 12.72 | 10.41 | 8.10 | 24.37 | 6.63 |
| P/B Ratio | 11.88 | 8.89 | 8.10 | 24.37 | 7.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 18.27 | 9.34 | 8.91 | 53.43 | 19.66 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates CFLT's fair value at $7.33 vs the current price of $30.67, implying -76.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $7.33 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $4.32 (P10) to $9.83 (P90), with a median of $6.84.
CFLT's current P/E of -35.7x compares to the industry median of 23.0x (45 peers in the group). This represents a -255.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
38 analysts cover CFLT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $29.68 (range: $24.00 — $32.00), implying -3.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (19), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CFLT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.