MODEL VERDICT
Arlo Technologies, Inc. (ARLO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $14.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $14.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $15.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $14.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $13.12 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $13.61 | -6.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $2.36 | -83.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $3.28 | -77.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $10.85 | -25.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $2.34 | -84.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $12.02 | -17.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $13.64 | -6.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $11.83 | -19.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $3.27 | -77.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $10.80 | -26.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $10.57 | -27.6% | 100% | 73 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 88× | 96× | 104× (Current) | 112× | 120× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $13 | $14 | $15 | $16 | $17 |
| Conservative (7%) | $13 | $14 | $16 | $17 | $18 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $14 | $15 | $16 | $17 | $18 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $14 | $15 | $17 | $18 | $19 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 49.18 | 23.97 | 22.70 | 126.07 | 51.27 |
| P/TBV | 7.74 | 8.54 | 1.65 | 13.19 | 4.34 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.98 | 7.70 | 1.55 | 12.05 | 3.91 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.72 | 1.80 | 0.62 | 2.91 | 0.78 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates ARLO's fair value at $10.57 vs the current price of $14.61, implying -27.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $10.57 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $8.48 (P10) to $16.44 (P90), with a median of $11.98.
ARLO's current P/E of 104.4x compares to the industry median of 23.4x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +345.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
10 analysts cover ARLO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $17.50 (range: $14.00 — $22.00), implying +19.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ARLO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.