MODEL VERDICT
Sonos, Inc. (SONO) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $15.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $15.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $15.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $17.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $16.63 | Below threshold | +2.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $7.58 | -50.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $9.22 | -40.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $18.86 | +22.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $17.49 | +13.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $43.62 | +183.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $38.79 | +151.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $19.18 | +24.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $22.30 | +44.8% | 100% | 69 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 169.67 | 130.51 | 22.76 | 394.91 | 178.44 |
| EV/EBITDA | 136.84 | 71.24 | 16.32 | 403.42 | 145.37 |
| P/FCF | 22.29 | 19.76 | 13.76 | 43.67 | 10.76 |
| P/FFO | 320.11 | 56.57 | 21.72 | 1801.58 | 655.35 |
| P/TBV | 7.70 | 7.19 | 5.79 | 10.76 | 2.00 |
| P/AFFO | 86.61 | 39.02 | 28.45 | 192.37 | 91.74 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.77 | 5.77 | 4.15 | 8.62 | 1.72 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.57 | 1.33 | 1.22 | 2.44 | 0.45 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates SONO's fair value at $22.30 vs the current price of $15.40, implying +44.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $22.30 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $12.97 (P10) to $21.31 (P90), with a median of $17.06.
SONO's current P/E of -30.2x compares to the industry median of 29.1x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -203.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
9 analysts cover SONO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $19.50 (range: $18.00 — $21.00), implying +26.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (4), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SONO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.