MODEL VERDICT
Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. (ARQT) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $26.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $25.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $25.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $26.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $28.22 | Below threshold | -4.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 57 analyst estimates | $9.39 | -65.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 130 industry peers | $28.74 | +6.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 130 industry peers | $30.14 | +11.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $22.36 | -17.1% | 100% | 54 | OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 7.74 | 3.87 | 2.72 | 21.15 | 7.31 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.29 | 3.80 | 2.52 | 19.50 | 6.67 |
| P/S Ratio | 60.78 | 9.20 | 3.76 | 220.96 | 106.82 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates ARQT's fair value at $22.36 vs the current price of $26.97, implying -17.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 54/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $22.36 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $11.07 (P10) to $42.90 (P90), with a median of $22.19.
ARQT's current P/E of -207.5x compares to the industry median of 21.4x (48 peers in the group). This represents a -1068.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
12 analysts cover ARQT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $33.33 (range: $29.00 — $37.00), implying +23.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 54/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ARQT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.