MODEL VERDICT
Accelerant Holdings (ARX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $13.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $13.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $14.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $13.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $12.77 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $10.30 | -21.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $6.58 | -49.7% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Tangible Book 7 bank peers | $7.14 | -45.5% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $14.31 | +9.3% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $8.44 | -35.5% | 100% | 50 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 9 valuation metrics, the model estimates ARX's fair value at $8.44 vs the current price of $13.09, implying -35.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 50/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $8.44 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $7.08 (P10) to $11.25 (P90), with a median of $9.16.
ARX's current P/E of -1.7x compares to the industry median of 14.3x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -112.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
9 analysts cover ARX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $16.60 (range: $13.00 — $20.00), implying +26.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 50/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ARX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.