MODEL VERDICT
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (AVAH) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $7.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $7.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $7.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $7.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $8.59 | Below threshold | -8.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 26 analyst estimates | $10.33 | +40.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 27 industry peers | $6.88 | -6.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 22 industry peers | $2.28 | -69.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 26 industry peers | $3.10 | -57.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 31 industry peers | $9.23 | +25.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 31 industry peers | $11.99 | +62.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 23 industry peers | $2.30 | -68.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $6.49 | -11.8% | 100% | 65 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/S Ratio | 0.40 | 0.35 | 0.08 | 0.81 | 0.31 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates AVAH's fair value at $6.49 vs the current price of $7.36, implying -11.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 65/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $6.49 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $4.19 (P10) to $8.39 (P90), with a median of $6.10.
AVAH's current P/E of -129.8x compares to the industry median of 19.7x (20 peers in the group). This represents a -760.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
12 analysts cover AVAH with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $11.17 (range: $9.50 — $13.00), implying +51.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (6), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 65/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for AVAH.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.