MODEL VERDICT
The Pennant Group, Inc. (PNTG) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $33.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $32.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $31.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $30.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $28.13 | Pending | +9.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 26 analyst estimates | $22.26 | -34.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 27 industry peers | $7.21 | -78.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 20 industry peers | $16.33 | -51.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 22 industry peers | $22.81 | -32.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 26 industry peers | $8.83 | -73.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 23 industry peers | $15.91 | -52.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 11 industry peers | $9.41 | -72.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 31 industry peers | $26.90 | -20.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 31 industry peers | $25.46 | -24.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 21 industry peers | $17.28 | -48.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 23 industry peers | $23.07 | -31.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $41.76 | +23.9% | 100% | 81 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 34× | 37× | 40× (Current) | 43× | 46× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $30 | $32 | $35 | $38 | $40 |
| Conservative (7%) | $30 | $33 | $36 | $38 | $41 |
| Base Case (10.1%) | $31 | $34 | $37 | $40 | $43 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $32 | $35 | $38 | $41 | $44 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 139.69 | 49.91 | 31.64 | 384.53 | 151.74 |
| EV/EBIT | 112.61 | 79.97 | 28.64 | 231.55 | 94.70 |
| EV/EBITDA | 64.02 | 37.17 | 23.67 | 138.49 | 47.99 |
| P/FCF | 90.16 | 28.00 | 16.82 | 344.51 | 142.48 |
| P/FFO | 63.07 | 29.59 | 22.71 | 153.94 | 50.12 |
| P/AFFO | 204.42 | 88.20 | 40.40 | 600.87 | 267.80 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.89 | 2.89 | 2.64 | 17.35 | 6.14 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.82 | 1.22 | 0.70 | 4.49 | 1.39 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates PNTG's fair value at $41.76 vs the current price of $33.71, implying +23.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $41.76 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $29.97 (P10) to $70.82 (P90), with a median of $48.14.
PNTG's current P/E of 40.1x compares to the industry median of 19.4x (20 peers in the group). This represents a +106.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 139.7x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
7 analysts cover PNTG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $39.00 (range: $38.00 — $40.00), implying +15.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PNTG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (2.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 14700.0% to approximately $83. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.