MODEL VERDICT
AXT, Inc. (AXTI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $96.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $76.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $82.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $62.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $64.18 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $1.18 | -98.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $13.22 | -86.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $11.93 | -87.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $3.70 | -96.2% | 100% | 49 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 55.34 | 25.91 | 11.84 | 128.28 | 63.56 |
| EV/EBIT | 24.95 | 19.76 | 9.14 | 45.96 | 18.95 |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.32 | 23.64 | 9.72 | 40.28 | 13.37 |
| P/FFO | 33.92 | 34.62 | 7.82 | 58.60 | 25.07 |
| P/TBV | 1.05 | 0.90 | 0.37 | 2.15 | 0.66 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.04 | 0.89 | 0.37 | 2.15 | 0.66 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.95 | 2.06 | 0.94 | 8.13 | 2.53 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates AXTI's fair value at $3.70 vs the current price of $96.00, implying -96.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 49/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $3.70 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $3.48 (P10) to $24.78 (P90), with a median of $12.05.
AXTI's current P/E of -200.0x compares to the industry median of 25.5x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -884.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 55.3x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
11 analysts cover AXTI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $52.40 (range: $18.00 — $93.00), implying -45.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 49/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for AXTI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.