MODEL VERDICT
Qorvo, Inc. (QRVO) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $82.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $82.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $84.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $84.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $81.78 | Pending | +1.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 64 analyst estimates | $212.77 | +156.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 54 industry peers | $205.88 | +148.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 47 industry peers | $24.45 | -70.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 49 industry peers | $255.14 | +207.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $37.33 | -55.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 54 industry peers | $242.23 | +192.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 74 industry peers | $312.81 | +277.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 74 industry peers | $306.50 | +269.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 48 industry peers | $24.93 | -69.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 53 industry peers | $260.74 | +214.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $147.34 | +77.7% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 121× | 132× | 143× (Current) | 154× | 165× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $72 | $78 | $85 | $91 | $98 |
| Conservative (5%) | $74 | $80 | $87 | $94 | $100 |
| Base Case (-27.0%) | $51 | $56 | $61 | $65 | $70 |
| Bull Case (-37%) | $45 | $49 | $53 | $57 | $61 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 77.15 | 85.04 | 9.79 | 145.71 | 54.19 |
| EV/EBIT | 52.36 | 54.49 | 8.99 | 110.59 | 33.07 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.03 | 18.86 | 7.05 | 24.60 | 6.15 |
| P/FCF | 17.45 | 16.65 | 9.66 | 25.38 | 5.96 |
| P/FFO | 20.31 | 22.89 | 7.25 | 27.22 | 7.16 |
| P/TBV | 13.87 | 13.19 | 8.33 | 22.81 | 5.32 |
| P/AFFO | 31.03 | 31.03 | 8.56 | 55.29 | 15.44 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.06 | 2.97 | 1.92 | 4.62 | 0.98 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.55 | 3.25 | 1.81 | 6.12 | 1.63 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates QRVO's fair value at $147.34 vs the current price of $82.90, implying +77.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $147.34 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $131.20 (P10) to $187.03 (P90), with a median of $159.47.
QRVO's current P/E of 142.9x compares to the industry median of 42.2x (47 peers in the group). This represents a +239.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 77.2x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
41 analysts cover QRVO with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $90.38 (range: $70.00 — $122.00), implying +9.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (29), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: QRVO trades at the 9150th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (77.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that QRVO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (11.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3200.0% to approximately $56. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.