MODEL VERDICT
Baxter International Inc. (BAX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $17.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $18.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $18.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $17.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $17.15 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $24.71 | +43.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $11.61 | -32.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $45.48 | +164.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $44.37 | +157.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $11.61 | -32.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $22.35 | +29.9% | 100% | 71 | UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 30.58 | 35.80 | 7.39 | 43.33 | 15.93 |
| EV/EBIT | 76.39 | 42.58 | 30.84 | 223.16 | 82.22 |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.28 | 22.27 | 17.97 | 26.60 | 4.57 |
| P/FCF | 30.26 | 30.35 | 15.16 | 44.60 | 8.95 |
| P/FFO | 87.11 | 22.90 | 5.37 | 408.47 | 157.89 |
| P/AFFO | 27.44 | 31.99 | 6.11 | 39.67 | 14.78 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.63 | 4.36 | 1.61 | 5.49 | 1.56 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.53 | 2.55 | 0.87 | 3.82 | 1.17 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 13 valuation metrics, the model estimates BAX's fair value at $22.35 vs the current price of $17.21, implying +29.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 71/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $22.35 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $12.82 (P10) to $17.66 (P90), with a median of $15.24.
BAX's current P/E of -9.8x compares to the industry median of 24.1x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -140.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 30.6x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
36 analysts cover BAX with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $19.75 (range: $15.00 — $25.00), implying +14.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (20), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 71/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BAX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.