MODEL VERDICT
The Brink's Company (BCO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $107.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $110.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $114.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $108.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $105.52 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $130.32 | +21.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $153.38 | +42.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $188.51 | +75.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $155.25 | +44.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $155.42 | +44.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $83.75 | -22.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $122.73 | +14.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $186.51 | +73.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $132.75 | +23.5% | 100% | 69 | UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 72.99 | 39.13 | 15.04 | 160.00 | 67.84 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.55 | 16.19 | 13.98 | 32.47 | 8.33 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.09 | 9.80 | 8.77 | 14.83 | 2.60 |
| P/FCF | 14.83 | 14.48 | 8.25 | 22.74 | 6.42 |
| P/FFO | 12.37 | 10.44 | 6.17 | 21.67 | 5.68 |
| P/AFFO | 33.77 | 22.12 | 10.98 | 94.57 | 30.88 |
| P/B Ratio | 12.58 | 13.01 | 4.50 | 22.32 | 6.13 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.57 | 1.26 | 0.23 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates BCO's fair value at $132.75 vs the current price of $107.52, implying +23.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $132.75 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $132.12 (P10) to $175.80 (P90), with a median of $153.73.
BCO's current P/E of N/Ax compares to the industry median of 21.9x (7 peers in the group). This represents a N/A discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 73.0x over 6 years. Signal: N/A.
9 analysts cover BCO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $163.00 (range: $163.00 — $163.00), implying +51.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BCO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.