MODEL VERDICT
BillionToOne, Inc. (BLLN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $101.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $97.19 | CURRENT | — |
| May 29, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $98.99 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $85.92 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $82.63 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 3 analyst estimates | $24.21 | -76.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 2 industry peers | $29.73 | -70.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 2 industry peers | $2.25 | -97.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $11.27 | -88.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 2 industry peers | $17.65 | -82.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $19.21 | -81.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $56.77 | -43.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $33.77 | -66.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 2 industry peers | $2.19 | -97.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $11.27 | -88.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $22.25 | -78.0% | 100% | 56 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 1333× | 1460× | 1587× (Current) | 1714× | 1841× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $88 | $97 | $105 | $114 | $122 |
| Conservative (7%) | $90 | $99 | $108 | $116 | $125 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $93 | $102 | $111 | $120 | $129 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $96 | $106 | $115 | $124 | $133 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates BLLN's fair value at $22.25 vs the current price of $101.12, implying -78.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 56/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $22.25 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $19.56 (P10) to $24.02 (P90), with a median of $21.77.
BLLN's current P/E of 1587.4x compares to the industry median of 35.3x (2 peers in the group). This represents a +4403.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
4 analysts cover BLLN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $125.00 (range: $120.00 — $130.00), implying +23.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 56/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BLLN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.