MODEL VERDICT
BrightSpire Capital, Inc. (BRSP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $5.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $6.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $5.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $5.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $5.82 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 6 REIT peers | $0.60 | -89.8% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $7.19 | +22.5% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $6.14 | +4.6% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $7.05 | +20.1% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $10.21 | +73.9% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $6.18 | +5.3% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $4.91 | -16.3% | 100% | 79 | OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 517.85 | 69.25 | 42.00 | 1890.88 | 915.62 |
| EV/EBITDA | 53.68 | 45.65 | 18.63 | 95.70 | 28.66 |
| P/FCF | 8.72 | 8.34 | 6.43 | 12.32 | 2.34 |
| P/FFO | 59.06 | 52.34 | 10.08 | 114.75 | 52.66 |
| P/TBV | 0.73 | 0.77 | 0.51 | 0.92 | 0.14 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.70 | 0.74 | 0.49 | 0.88 | 0.13 |
| Div Yield | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.14 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.61 | 2.27 | 2.07 | 4.08 | 0.73 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates BRSP's fair value at $4.91 vs the current price of $5.87, implying -16.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $4.91 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $3.33 (P10) to $7.03 (P90), with a median of $4.78.
BRSP's current P/E of -22.6x compares to the industry median of 18.1x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -224.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
8 analysts cover BRSP with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $6.00 (range: $6.00 — $6.00), implying +2.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (1), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BRSP.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.