MODEL VERDICT
KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. (KREF)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $6.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $6.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $6.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $6.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $6.36 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $11.00 | +73.2% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $16.79 | +164.4% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $7.19 | +13.2% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $17.04 | +168.3% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $12.59 | +98.2% | 100% | 77 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 30.99 | 18.67 | 9.43 | 60.70 | 24.05 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.36 | 19.79 | 12.28 | 25.85 | 5.12 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.34 | 19.79 | 12.29 | 25.85 | 5.12 |
| P/FCF | 8.23 | 8.23 | 5.63 | 12.81 | 2.48 |
| P/TBV | 0.73 | 0.65 | 0.45 | 1.05 | 0.23 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.73 | 0.65 | 0.45 | 1.05 | 0.23 |
| Div Yield | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.58 | 2.16 | 1.18 | 4.26 | 1.42 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 10 valuation metrics, the model estimates KREF's fair value at $12.59 vs the current price of $6.35, implying +98.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $12.59 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $6.58 (P10) to $9.00 (P90), with a median of $7.65.
KREF's current P/E of -6.0x compares to the industry median of 16.7x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -136.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 31.0x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
12 analysts cover KREF with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $7.00 (range: $7.00 — $7.00), implying +10.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for KREF.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.